Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records

This past July was the third warmest on record globally. According to the Copernicus Climate Service, the global average temperature in July was 16.68 degrees Celsius. That is 0.45 degrees higher than the July average for the years 1991–2020, and 1.25 degrees higher than during the pre-industrial period.

In Europe, July was the fourth warmest on record, with an average temperature of 21.12 degrees—1.3 degrees above the reference period.

In Finland, however, no temperature records were approached, as for example, Helsinki’s warmest July on record still remains clearly in 2010, with a 1.2-degree margin. In Northern Finland, Sodankylä experienced its warmest July in 2018.

Finland, however, saw the second longest heatwave in recorded history, with temperatures exceeding 25 degrees Celsius for 26 consecutive days at several weather stations. However, the record remains unbroken: in 2021, a station in Southeastern Finland recorded a heatwave lasting 31 days.

According to these statistics, the average July area of Arctic sea ice was also relatively small—the sixth smallest since records began in 1979. This fits the broader pattern observed since around 2007, where the area of Arctic sea ice collapsed and has since settled into a new, lower range of variability.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The past winter was exceptionally warm in Northern Europe – according to a recent study, it was even the warmest in at least 2,000 years. That’s why it is interesting that in April, the extent of Arctic sea ice was only the ninth smallest in recorded history (see figure).

This was the case despite the fact that in March, the sea ice area in the north was the smallest since satellite records began in 1979, and April was also warmer than usual in Finland. It remains to be seen whether the Arctic Ocean will melt enough by autumn for the sea routes passing through it to gain renewed attention.

This is also tied to the fact that Finnish and Canadian shipbuilders are competing to sell icebreakers to the United States. In this respect, the Finns have a clear advantage, as only Finland currently has the capacity to build the 40 icebreakers that the U.S. needs – which may be the reason why Canada has offered the U.S. the possibility of building Canadian-designed icebreakers on U.S. soil.

However, in this context, one might imagine that the U.S. would take note of the fact that even the Canadians have just ordered an icebreaker from Finland. And so, to play it safe, they might place their order with Finland as well.

On the other hand, it is clear that 40 icebreakers cannot be built in a year or two, and for that reason, the Americans might well split the order between the competing parties. It remains to be seen how this competition will play out – or whether the entire Arctic will melt to the point that, in three years' time, there will be little to no need for icebreakers in the Arctic Ocean at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures

The past October was extremely hot in many places (one, two, three examples), and for that reason, I checked NASA's NSIDC website to see if the northern sea ice might also have started melting. However, this was not the case; rather, it was the fifth largest in recorded history, as shown in the image below, which presents the polar ice area for each October over the years.

The October area of the northern sea ice was at its smallest in 2020, followed in order by 2007, 2016, and 2019. After these years comes the current year, 2024.

Thus, the area of northern sea ice has not responded to the exceptionally high temperatures on Earth’s surface—or, alternatively, there may be inaccuracies in the measurements of either the surface temperature or the ice area. Time will eventually reveal which explanation is correct.

In any case, throughout 2024, the northern sea ice area has not been the smallest on record for any month. In January, it ranked as the 24th smallest, in February the 14th smallest, in March the 25th smallest, in April the 27th smallest, in May the 24th smallest, and even in June it was the 11th smallest. After that, the melting rate of the ice accelerated compared to other years, and in July its area was the 5th smallest on record, in August the 2nd smallest, in September the 4th smallest, and in October the 5th smallest.

I won’t attempt to predict the coming months. Instead, I would like to point out to you - my esteemed readers - that the image above, which I generated based on NSIDC data seems to suggest that the melting of the ice, which began in the early 1990s, may have stabilized around 2007 and is now oscillating around a new equilibrium or is decreasing noticeably more slowly than in previous years.

I wrote earlier this year about a similar phenomenon in the July statistics, and indeed, it is also evident in the statistics for all other months. So, it remains to be seen how the ice area will develop over the last three months of this year.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?

The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January

According to climate models, the world is warming frighteningly fast. And even faster in the Arctic sea ice area, which, according to a fairly recent study, entered a state in 2007 from which its surface area cannot recover through normal climate variability.

Recently, it has also been reported that the temperature of the Earth's oceans during the past El Niño year has been the highest in recorded history. As well as the average global climate temperature.

Based on these premises, one could assume that the current January area of Arctic sea ice would be exceptionally small, and its maximum size this winter would be smaller than ever before in recorded history. Or actually, this assumption could be considered a hypothesis derived from the prevailing climate theory nowadays.

So, I went to check the statistics maintained by the National Snow & Ice Data Center on January sea ice areas. Looking at this data series that started in 1979, I was amazed and decided to list the information it contains in the table below.

From the table, it can be seen that the January sea ice area in the Arctic was the 21st largest in its 46-year (the table only includes 45 years due to missing data for the year 1988) observational history. This is clearly larger than the median value of the dataset. Additionally, we notice that the situation was very similar two years ago in 2022, when the ice extent was even larger than this past January.

Therefore, it is interesting to follow how the northern sea ice will develop by the end of this year's autumn. By then, its area should reach its minimum size and perhaps even melt to a smaller area than in 2012, when it was historically at its lowest. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Does Arctic sea ice melt as atmospheric greenhouse gases increase?

The increase in carbon dioxide concentration warms more than anticipated
The record-breaking warming of the oceans is not visible in the Arctic

Record low temperature in northern Finland

This spring has been relatively warm in Finland, as expected considering the commonly known predictions of a warming climate.

However, it is worth noting that last night in Kilpisjärvi, located in the northernmost region, the temperature reached a record low for the month of June at -7.7 degrees Celsius. This temperature was 0.7 degrees lower than the previous record set in 1962

It's important to note that this observation does not imply that climate change has been canceled. Instead, it perhaps indicates that the extent of warming is not yet very significant. One possible explanation could be that global temperatures have decreased since 2016, as indicated by satellite data.

The satellite data also aligns with measurements of the arctic sea extent, which currently show a considerable increase compared to the same time in 2012, 2016, and many other years. This hiatus has been attributed to the prolonged La Niña period and the absence of El Niño since 2016.

However, it appears that the long-awaited El Niño may be starting, which makes it extremely interesting to see whether the temperature records from the last decade will be surpassed both globally and locally in the Arctic region. Could it even be possible that next year's summer will set a new temperature record in Kilpisjärvi? 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Arctic sea ice contradicts with the climatic model predictions, but is that changing now?
Availability of coffee in a warming world
Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit