Does Andy Burnham Stand a Chance of Success?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned yesterday. Various forms of dissatisfaction with him lay behind the decision, but the fundamental problem was likely the collapse in support for the Labour Party. Nor does it help that, at the same time, Reform UK, which has drawn much of its support from concerns over immigration, has become the country's most popular political movement.

Western media outlets (including the BBC, CNN, MTV3 and Yleisradio) have cited a number of reasons for Starmer's resignation, including the rising cost of living for pensioners, plans to cut benefits paid to disabled people, his acceptance of gifts and freebies, Labour's poor performance in recent local elections, the emergence of a credible rival from within his own party, the country's growing debt burden, sluggish economic growth, his intention to appoint Peter Mandelson despite the latter's association with the Epstein scandal, broader structural issues related to healthcare and housing reform, and his lack of charisma as a politician.

It therefore remains to be seen how British politics will develop under a new prime minister. Will the next prime minister – most likely Labour's Andy Burnham – succeed in reviving his party's popularity, or will he go down in history as the last prime minister of an old establishment party?

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According to Wikipedia, Burnham described himself as a socialist in 2010 and emphasised a philosophy he called aspirational socialism, characterised by redistribution, collectivism and internationalism.

Burnham strongly opposes nationalism, which he has described as "an ugly form of politics". As Mayor of Greater Manchester, however, Burnham has pledged to be "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime".

Politically, Burnham currently places himself – again according to Wikipedia – on the moderate left of the Labour Party. This view is also reflected in several media outlets, including the Financial Times, New Statesman and LabourList.

For my part, I believe that the key to Burnham's success lies in resolving the problems related to immigration and immigrants in the island nation. If he fails to do so, his career at the pinnacle of British politics is also likely to be rather short-lived.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is the EU a Real Player in World Politics—or Just a Paper Tiger?
Just Another Case of Multiculturality in Manchester, UK
When Diversity Beats Doctors: Three UK Healthcare Realities to Make Stalin Envious

Will Orpo’s Government Repeat Milei’s Miracle and Restore Finland’s Values?

In Argentina, President Javier Milei has been fixing the country’s economy with a firm hand. As a result, his party suffered a defeat in the provincial elections of the Buenos Aires region in September.

This morning, however, we learned that the president’s party is nevertheless set to win the parliamentary midterm elections—and by a considerable margin over the opposition. It therefore appears that, in Argentina as well, the political “climate” of the capital region differs from that of the rest of the country—just as in Finland.

For Argentinians, the outcome of the midterm election is undoubtedly a good thing, since abandoning the economic reform halfway would most likely have led their homeland into another downward spiral, from which Milei has only just managed to lift it. Now, he has the people’s mandate to complete his economic recovery program.

Although Argentina is far from Finland, its economic situation is by no means irrelevant to us. After all, we too have a government that has sought—albeit with extreme caution—to reduce state spending.

And that’s not all, because the task will also fall to the next government, if its members have even a shred of responsibility. Finland’s public finances have been chronically in debt since 2008, and nowadays the payment of interest alone consumes roughly three and a half billion euros of the state budget every year.

It remains to be seen whether the Finnish people will act like the Argentinians in the parliamentary elections to be held in 2027. In this regard, the development of Finland’s economy over the next year and a half will be a crucial question.

What matters most is that if the country’s economy and employment rate begin to grow as a result of the government’s actions, and the accumulation of debt can thereby be halted, then the current Orpo cabinet coalition will have a good chance—like Milei—to renew its mandate to lead the country. That, in turn, could put Finland’s economy back on a healthy footing.

At the same time, we could continue to repair the value base of our society toward realism. In this respect, immigration policy is a significant part of the whole.

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In that light, it was interesting to read in this morning’s Helsingin Sanomat article that among the humanitarian immigrants who arrived in Finland in 2015, those who came as unaccompanied minors have fared the best. By contrast, those who arrived here as adults have unambiguously become a heavy burden on society.

The HS article suggested that the young people who came alone might have been unusually resourceful individuals, which could explain why they have succeeded in Finland better than other humanitarian refugees. That may partly explain their success, but I strongly suspect that culture also plays a role here.

More specifically, the transmission of culture from parents to children. It is clear that young people who live with their families and share the values of developing countries preserve their own cultural background more strongly than those who live alone. Therefore, they adopt Western attitudes and habits that lead to social success much less readily than those who arrived unaccompanied.

Against this background, it might make sense to make a complete U-turn in our current refugee policy and redefine Finnish humanitarian immigration—at least with regard to quota refugees—so that priority would be given to unaccompanied young people. At the same time, we could abolish family reunifications altogether, since they undoubtedly have harmful cultural consequences as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?
Javier Milei and the Great Western Opportunity
Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Toistaako Orpon hallitus Milein ihmeen ja korjaa suomalaisen arvopohjan?

A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations

Finland’s Minister of Finance, Riikka Purra (Finns Party), has announced today that Finland will further reduce the funding allocated to development aid. This move is primarily driven by the weakness of Finland’s own economic situation.

The same may sooner or later be inevitable for several other European countries as well, if they aim to get their national debt under control. Therefore, it would be reasonable for developing countries that receive aid from EU nations to take responsibility for their own affairs.

This would mean prioritizing key issues, implementing determined economic policies, and above all, eradicating corruption. However, it remains to be seen whether they will succeed—or whether these countries will plunge into chaos as Western aid diminishes.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?
Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Som
Responsible Development Aid and New Priorities: Finland's Development Cooperation Reforms

Correct minister, ridiculous facts

The Finnish parliamentary elections were held last summer. As a result, the country's government switched from a red-green coalition to a political right-wing one in the summer.

Among the politicians of the previous government, Maria Ohisalo of the Greens first served as the Minister of the Interior and later as the Minister of the Environment and Climate. Therefore, it was interesting to note her criticism of the current government on messaging service X, stating that Finland's ranking had dropped by a whopping 11 places according to the latest Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) ranking.

The situation became amusing when it was revealed that the former minister had not noticed that CCPI used two-year-old data for statistics, precisely from Maria Ohisalo's ministerial term. In other words, she blamed the current government for her own achievements.

It is clear that Ohisalo made herself appear ridiculous. What is less clear, however, is why she rushed to politicize the new information before verifying its accuracy.

If this behavior was typical for Ohisalo and the previous female-led government, it is no wonder that the previous government term was, especially in terms of the economy, downright catastrophic for Finland. For example, during the four-year period (2019-2022), the state debt increased by a whopping 33 percent, leaving the budget permanently about seven percent in deficit.

Hopefully, the current government will familiarize itself better with the facts before decision-making and succeed in revitalizing Finland's economy to make it comparable again to other Nordic countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit 175 happy winners Minister Maria Ohisalo panicked