Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

A ship that had been dragging its anchor – Fitburg – damaged a cable running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland yesterday. The Finnish Border Guard acted with its customary efficiency, documented the dangling anchor with photographs, and took the vessel into custody.

The case will next proceed to a more detailed investigation and, in due course, undoubtedly to court. This in itself sounds good, but I would like to draw your attention, dear readers, to what happened last October.

At that time, the Helsinki District Court announced that it would not examine the charges – in a similar case – against the vessel Eagle S, which belongs to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, nor the compensation claims based on those charges. The court held that Finland’s Criminal Code could not be applied to the case.

The matter was commented on at the time by Member of Parliament Jarno Limnéll (National Coalition Party), who stated that “clearer legislation and international agreements are needed that give states the ability to deal with acts of this kind also in exclusive economic zones and international waters.” However, no such measures have emerged during the past couple of months.

For this reason, it seems clear to me that the Fitburg incident – quite evidently a cable sabotage operation ordered by Russia – is, logically speaking, a consequence of the Helsinki District Court’s decision and the shortcomings of international legislation. It is obvious that if breaking cables carries no consequences, Putin’s administration can continue sabotaging them without concern.

It is therefore easy to predict that cables running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea will continue to be damaged – so to speak, “by accident” – in the future. And this will likely continue until the necessary provisions are enacted in international law, despite the expected opposition from Russia and its proxies.

* * *

If one wishes to see something positive in the Fitburg case, it is undoubtedly the efficiency of the actions taken by the Finnish authorities. The cable damage was investigated quickly, and the perpetrator was also stopped.

Because of the legislative problem mentioned above, the only sanction available against the ship’s owner and/or crew will likely be to look for deficiencies in the vessel’s condition, thereby delaying its departure. In this way, the crew would at least be forced to loiter for a while off the coast of Kirkkonummi.

It would be interesting to know whether the shipowner and/or its crew have made an agreement with Vladimir Putin’s administration regarding compensation for those days in rubles or in some stronger currency. The exchange rate of the ruble has recently been in a decline reminiscent of that famous cow’s tail, so the value of days compensated in Russian currency decreases over time.

In any case, any deficiencies found on the vessel must be investigated before it is allowed to leave Finnish territorial waters. And, of course, even the smallest faults discovered on the ship should be required to be carefully repaired before departure clearance is granted – to the vessel and its crew alike.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö kannusti Fitburgin kaapelisabotaasiin

Donald Trump Called a Shooter an Animal

This morning’s news feed reported that a 29-year-old Afghan who moved to the country in 2021 has shot two members of the United States National Guard. The incident took place in Washington, the capital of the USA – and reportedly very close to the White House.

President Donald Trump has called the event an act of terror and referred to the perpetrator as an animal. In addition, he has vowed that the Afghan will pay a very high price for his actions.

It remains to be seen what the criminal investigation will ultimately conclude regarding the shooting incident. However, it is already generally clear that the case can be linked to the broader issues associated with the migration of Muslim people from developing countries to Western democracies.

It is equally certain that this case will not halt the so-called humanitarian immigration policy, but that it will continue as before. As a result, Western culture will gradually transform into a more polarized society, in which the ethno-cultural character of the population differs significantly from what it was before the turn of the millennium.

It should be noted, though, that this development is ultimately the result of political decisions. Therefore, the development I described above is not a law of nature, but rather the choice of Western people themselves. And as such, it – and its outcome – can be changed, should that be desired.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Just Another Case of Multiculturality in Manchester, UK
The Cost of the East Jerusalem Attack for Palestinians — and Its Echo Worldwide
Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians

The original blogposti in Finnish:
29-vuotias afgaani ammuskeli

Will Orpo’s Government Repeat Milei’s Miracle and Restore Finland’s Values?

In Argentina, President Javier Milei has been fixing the country’s economy with a firm hand. As a result, his party suffered a defeat in the provincial elections of the Buenos Aires region in September.

This morning, however, we learned that the president’s party is nevertheless set to win the parliamentary midterm elections—and by a considerable margin over the opposition. It therefore appears that, in Argentina as well, the political “climate” of the capital region differs from that of the rest of the country—just as in Finland.

For Argentinians, the outcome of the midterm election is undoubtedly a good thing, since abandoning the economic reform halfway would most likely have led their homeland into another downward spiral, from which Milei has only just managed to lift it. Now, he has the people’s mandate to complete his economic recovery program.

Although Argentina is far from Finland, its economic situation is by no means irrelevant to us. After all, we too have a government that has sought—albeit with extreme caution—to reduce state spending.

And that’s not all, because the task will also fall to the next government, if its members have even a shred of responsibility. Finland’s public finances have been chronically in debt since 2008, and nowadays the payment of interest alone consumes roughly three and a half billion euros of the state budget every year.

It remains to be seen whether the Finnish people will act like the Argentinians in the parliamentary elections to be held in 2027. In this regard, the development of Finland’s economy over the next year and a half will be a crucial question.

What matters most is that if the country’s economy and employment rate begin to grow as a result of the government’s actions, and the accumulation of debt can thereby be halted, then the current Orpo cabinet coalition will have a good chance—like Milei—to renew its mandate to lead the country. That, in turn, could put Finland’s economy back on a healthy footing.

At the same time, we could continue to repair the value base of our society toward realism. In this respect, immigration policy is a significant part of the whole.

* * *

In that light, it was interesting to read in this morning’s Helsingin Sanomat article that among the humanitarian immigrants who arrived in Finland in 2015, those who came as unaccompanied minors have fared the best. By contrast, those who arrived here as adults have unambiguously become a heavy burden on society.

The HS article suggested that the young people who came alone might have been unusually resourceful individuals, which could explain why they have succeeded in Finland better than other humanitarian refugees. That may partly explain their success, but I strongly suspect that culture also plays a role here.

More specifically, the transmission of culture from parents to children. It is clear that young people who live with their families and share the values of developing countries preserve their own cultural background more strongly than those who live alone. Therefore, they adopt Western attitudes and habits that lead to social success much less readily than those who arrived unaccompanied.

Against this background, it might make sense to make a complete U-turn in our current refugee policy and redefine Finnish humanitarian immigration—at least with regard to quota refugees—so that priority would be given to unaccompanied young people. At the same time, we could abolish family reunifications altogether, since they undoubtedly have harmful cultural consequences as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?
Javier Milei and the Great Western Opportunity
Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Toistaako Orpon hallitus Milein ihmeen ja korjaa suomalaisen arvopohjan?

Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?

Finland detained a vessel named Eagle S, which had dragged its anchor across the seabed and damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. The investigation took some time, after which the evidence was submitted to a Finnish district court, i.e., the lowest judicial instance.

Instead of assessing the criminal liability of the act and delivering a verdict to those found guilty, the district court ruled that it had no jurisdiction to decide in such a criminal case. Therefore, the matter should be dealt with either in the courts of the crew’s home countries or in the courts of the flag state of the Eagle S. In other words, the case would fall under the jurisdiction of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India.

However, Professor Ulla Tapaninen, a maritime transport expert at Tallinn University of Technology, has noted that “district courts often prefer to move complex cases up to higher judicial levels.” For this reason, she argues it is reasonable that the Eagle S case would be escalated from the district court to the court of appeal, which is one step higher in the judicial hierarchy.

In other words, the Finnish professor at the Estonian university assumes that the legal proceedings will continue in Finland. This raises the question: if that happens, will the court of appeal consider itself competent—contrary to the district court’s conclusion—to convict the crew of the Eagle S?

And if that is the case, who will bear the costs? The Finnish taxpayer, who has already been burdened with bills amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros?

And what would happen after such a farce? Would the case then be transferred to the courts of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India—or would the legal consequences of the damage caused by the Eagle S to the submarine cables ultimately remain unaddressed?

And furthermore, if that is the case, does it mean that in the future the submarine cables running along the seabed of the Baltic Sea and other seas may be cut at will and without consequences?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine has sought to undermine Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” by bringing the war into Russians’ homes, namely by destroying infrastructure. As a result, there are occasional shortages of fuel for cars, and home heating does not always function.

The Ukrainians’ tactic seems sound in itself, but Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party), former Chief of Intelligence at the Finnish Defence Command and now a Member of the European Parliament, reminded of one problem. According to him, “in a dictatorship, the risk of going out into the streets is great, because if you are not shot, you will spend decades in a prison camp.”

For this reason, Russians can endure the kind of misery that would lead to massive riots in Western countries. The choice is easy, since—as Toveri put it—“the alternative is a bullet in the forehead.”

It remains to be seen what the winter will bring. In the best-case scenario, heating failures and cold homes will eventually lead to a popular uprising and the collapse of Putin’s regime—along with peace for Ukraine. In the worst case, Russians will direct their anger toward Ukraine, and the people will unite more firmly than ever behind Putin’s “special operation.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Challenging What We Think We Know: Wildfires Reveal the Power of Science

Large wildfires make headlines that spread across the world. This certainly does nothing to lessen the negative stigma attached to them.

That is why it was so interesting to come across a study examining the impact of wildfires in the western United States on air quality in other parts of the country. The researchers’ hypothesis was that wildfires would worsen air quality simply because of smoke transport.

However, the hypothesis turned out to be incorrect. Ma and colleagues showed that extreme wildfires in the West actually reduce fine particle concentrations in the eastern United States by roughly the same amount as they increase them in the West.

This surprising result was explained by the fact that heat-induced convection from the fires weakens eastward transport of smoke and enhances the removal of air pollutants through precipitation. In fact, this mechanism reduces human mortality and economic losses nationwide!

Of course, it is welcome news that the health effects of wildfires may not be as dramatic as feared. Yet in my view, the real lesson of this study lies elsewhere. It once again demonstrates that ordinary and seemingly logical assumptions people make do not necessarily correspond to reality. At the same time, it helps to highlight why systematic science is very likely one of humanity’s most important institutions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
Scientific misconduct on prevailing theories is too attractive

The Cost of the East Jerusalem Attack for Palestinians — and Its Echo Worldwide

Two Palestinian militants apparently thought that the Palestinians’ position in the Holy Land would improve if they started shooting on a road heavily used by Jews. So they put their plan into action, managing to kill at least six people and wound several others. And of course, they themselves supposedly got to enjoy the company of 72 virgins—assuming, that is, that there’s any truth to their beliefs.

Next, we are left to see what follows from this attack. Will the everyday life of ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank improve, or perhaps turn quite the opposite way?

Even more interesting, however, will be to observe how European media report on the future living conditions of the people in the West Bank—conditions that Israel’s army will undoubtedly alter in one way or another. And more interesting still will be to see how UN Secretary-General António Guterres comments on what has happened now, and again later when we can see the consequences.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace
Will Gaza Get a Ceasefire, or Will Hamas Hold On to Its Terrorist Capabilities?
United Nations, corruption and terrorism

Organized Vandalism in Helsinki, Finland

An office building located in Helsinki, the capital of Finland, was vandalized with red paint last night. The building houses the Finnish branch of Allianz Trade Suomi, so the incident is most likely connected to organized terrorism targeting that particular company.

This conclusion is supported by a report from Middle East Monitor in January, which stated that the pro-Palestinian group Palestine Action had already carried out similar actions against 15 Allianz offices across Europe.

The act appears to have been carried out by a group called Palestine Action Suomi, which has previously vandalized the historic and valuable Finnish Ministry of Defence building, as well as the premises of Nammo, a company manufacturing defense equipment. In the latter case, the group's justification for its reckless actions was either false or misleading.

One can only hope that the police succeed in identifying and locating those responsible for the vandalism so they can be brought to justice and held accountable for the damage caused, as well as the costs of cleaning up the paint. In this regard, I am fairly confident, as the Finnish police have proven to be highly effective in recent decades.

It is also important that Finnish media outlets prominently report the legal consequences and compensation rulings related to this politically motivated vandalism once the court has issued its decision. Such reporting would help younger generations understand how irrational it is to join organizations like Palestine Action, instead of seeking to influence political issues through legal and democratic means.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Activism Without Truth 
Greta Thunberg in Search of a Greater Thrill
The demands of the vandals

A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine

Israel's attacks today demonstrated that Iran has no means to defend itself against the Jewish state's assaults. Nor does it have the capability to inflict significant damage on Israel, as the mullahs’ failed counterattack attempt showed.

As a consequence, the conflict between Israel and Iran will be militarily uninteresting. However, it is clear that if Iran even partially closes the Strait of Hormuz, the global market price of crude oil will rise — and this, in turn, will have an indirect impact, particularly on the war in Ukraine.

This is because the price increase would result in money flowing into Russia’s war chest from oil sales more rapidly than it currently does. And this would lead to two consequences, both of which would be detrimental to Ukraine.

The first would naturally be that the increased oil revenues would provide more funding for arming Putin’s military, thus strengthening Russia’s invading army. The second is that the burden of war on Russian civilians would ease, thereby reducing the risk of a collapse in support for Putin’s regime — and thus the risk of a potential popular uprising.

For this reason, it is to be hoped that Israel achieves its objectives in Iran as quickly as possible. And if the mullahs attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, its openness must be ensured by the actions of other countries — especially the United States.

For this reason, it is especially interesting to closely follow the war between Israel and Iran over the weekend and the early part of next week. And perhaps even to hope that the Iranian people will grow tired of their Islamist regime and overthrow it through a popular uprising — just as the Shah's regime collapsed 46 years ago. And as a result, shut down Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran Rejects Direct Nuclear Talks with U.S., Calls Them Pointless
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
Israel’s Strike on Iran: Ripple Effects for the Middle East, Russia, and Global Stability

What the U.S.–Ukraine Mineral Agreement Means

Today, we’ll be hearing politically charged speeches from the leaders of various Finnish parties on current issues—which, of course, is above all entertaining.

But the most significant May Day event was likely already reported early this morning.

I am, of course, referring to the fact that the United States and Ukraine have indeed signed a mineral agreement. According to the deal, the U.S. and Ukraine will establish a joint investment fund intended, among other things, to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and to facilitate investments related to Ukraine’s natural resources.

The agreement explicitly states that Russia initiated the war, enables U.S. military aid to the victim of the aggression, and recognizes Ukraine’s right to control the minerals within its territory. At the same time, it offers Americans the opportunity to invest in Ukrainian mineral assets through the newly created fund.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, “The United States is committed to helping end this cruel and senseless war. This agreement sends a clear message to Russia that the Trump administration is dedicated to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, for his part, described the agreement as “good, fair, and favorable.” And there’s no reason to doubt that he meant what he said.

It remains to be seen how this new agreement will influence American realpolitik regarding the war in Ukraine. In other words, will it lead to increased or decreased military and diplomatic engagement by the U.S. on Ukraine’s behalf?

On one hand, it could be argued that since Americans now have a deal concerning Ukraine’s natural resources, their interest in ensuring those resources remain under their partner’s control may grow. That could even lead to actions aimed at liberating at least the most mineral-rich areas currently occupied by Russia.

On the other hand, it’s equally possible that the U.S. and President Donald Trump will begin pressuring Ukraine to make peace at any cost, in order to begin exploiting the deal quickly. In the worst case, this might take the form of increased pressure on President Zelensky’s government to accept peace terms reflecting the current front lines—playing into Putin’s hands.

At this stage, the only thing that’s clear is that the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase, one that will most likely differ in nature from what we’ve seen so far. One can only hope that, at least from a European perspective, it doesn’t take a turn for the worse—that is, in favor of the Russians.

In that regard, it sounds particularly encouraging that Bessent also stated that “no entity that financed or equipped Russia’s war machine will benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction project.”

It’s as if Trump’s Ukraine policy made a complete U-turn overnight—but let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. Instead, for now, let’s focus on May Day traditions."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
May Day Reflections from a President—and a Student
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War
Should Finland Heed the Warnings of a Left-Wing Idealist?

Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia

The war in Ukraine has had many different consequences. However, not many people have considered that one of them is the rapid growth of the wolf population in the Murmansk region, which has led to an exceptionally large number of these dog-like predators crossing the border into Finland.

Wolves are also being spotted on the Russian side of the Kola Peninsula in places where they have never been seen before. And this is not a one-time occurrence, as Russia’s wolf population has grown significantly during previous wars as well.

According to Finnish large carnivore researcher Ilpo Kojola, the explanation for the increase in wolves is that military personnel have played—and still play—a significant role in regulating Russia’s wolf population. And they are not dealing with the wolves when they have been transferred elsewhere to kill people.

So, could it be said that a community has now been found whose members would surely express—if they knew how to speak or write, say, on social media—their satisfaction with Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine? And who would support the continuation of the war forever, until the very last Russian soldier?

* * *

Today we also heard the news that Chinese soldiers have been fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces. It remains to be seen whether China will acknowledge this.

Similarly, it remains to be seen whether Donald Trump will ultimately dare to declare to Russia that the United States will support Ukraine as much as necessary — until the very last Russian soldier is either dead or has left Ukrainian soil. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
President of Finland Asked Whether There Are Top Politicians With Serious Intellectual Limitations
Wolfs affect nature conservation
Leaders infected by a parasite

Finland's Stance on NATO Defense Spending Is Linked to the Geopolitical Threat from Russia

Finnish Minister of Finance Riikka Purra (Finns Party) suggested today that the defense spending target for the military alliance NATO will be raised to three or even 3.5 percent of the member countries' gross domestic product. Such an increase would be quite high, as many European NATO countries have not previously reached the current two percent target.

However, Finland appears to be ready for such an increase, provided that the decisions are made in a way that the allocated funds are specifically directed towards enhancing the country’s military capability and addressing threats against Finland, as well as fulfilling identified defensive needs.

In practice, the Finnish military currently has the greatest needs in the development of ground forces, so investments will initially focus on that area. This is because Finland has recently or is currently investing heavily in both naval and air forces.

However, the extent of the military threat against Finland remains unknown, as it depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If the outcome is such that Russia can interpret its aggression as having achieved any form of victory, the risk to Finland increases in proportion to the certainty of Russian military achievements.

For this reason, it is not in Finland's interest to support a resolution that would, for example, limit Ukraine's sovereignty, involve territorial concessions, or restrict its military capabilities. Unfortunately, it seems that such elements are included in President Donald Trump's plan for a ceasefire and permanent peace. Even more clearly, these elements are present in the demands that Vladimir Putin has set as conditions for his involvement.

Unfortunately, at the moment, it seems that Trump does not understand — or care — about the consequences of such peace for Russia’s neighboring states. Nor do European countries, due to their previous neglect of defense, possess the military strength to offer Ukraine an alternative or to pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

Therefore, the current phase of the peace process in Ukraine appears outright threatening to both Finland and other neighboring states of Russia. On the other hand, it ensures that the citizens of these countries have a strong will to enhance and strengthen their military defense capability.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Now It's Putin's Turn to Show His Hand
Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia
Trump's Indecision Benefits Putin – Deadly Consequences for Ukraine

What will Happen Tomorrow, on the Anniversary of the Attack by the Terrorists on October 7th Last Year?

Tomorrow, on October 7th, 2024, it will be exactly one year since the terrorist attack carried out by Palestinian Hamas, during which Jews were killed, raped, and tortured in large numbers, and hostages were taken. The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,139 people, and approximately 250 hostages were taken by the terrorists. The brutal war that followed is still ongoing.

Therefore, I am very interested to see what will happen on this anniversary. Actually, I consider it possible that Israel has chosen tomorrow as the date for its retaliatory strike against Iran due to the missile strike last week.

At the very least, this would be an easily understandable message to Iran that their actions will be met with responses on multiple levels. At the same time, it would serve as a reminder to all Palestinians eager for war that their evil deeds will not go unpunished.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iranian Missile Attack was Followed by Humorous Flowers

Mentally Elementary-School-Aged Were Attacked, But Will Iran Come to Their Aid?
An Iranian Student's Fantasy of Two Missiles and a U.S. Aircraft Carrier

Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience

Most Finns feel compassion towards Ukrainians who have been forced into war against Russia. This is largely because Finland found itself in a similar situation in 1939 when Joseph Stalin's Soviet Union agreed on a sphere of influence division in Eastern Europe with Hitler's Germany. The Winter War broke out, which united the entire Finnish nation just 21 years after the end of the civil war.

Therefore, it was interesting that according to a recent opinion poll, as many as one in four Finns would like Finland and other Western countries to send armed troops to Ukraine. This is a surprisingly high figure even though the number of opponents is higher, about 40 percent.

One in three men supported sending troops, but only one in six women. In addition to women, people over sixty also viewed the idea unfavorably.

When viewed from a political perspective, the supporters of the political right, that is, the National Coalition Party and the Finns Party, were the most in favor of sending troops. The greatest number of opponents were among the supporters of the Social Democrats and the Centre Party.

However, the fact is that official Finland will not send even a single soldier to fight in Ukraine, even though it has provided fairly generous material aid. Instead, voluntary Finnish soldiers are already fighting in Zelenskyy's army against the "old enemy."

In practice, Ukraine's future will largely be determined by who wins the U.S. presidential election and what the winner thinks about the matter.

If the winner wants to withdraw American support from Zelenskyy's army, the Ukrainians will find themselves in a difficult situation. European arms aid is unlikely to be enough to win the war, and the country will be forced to make an unpleasant peace with Russia.

Such a situation would also unite Finns and Ukrainians, as this happened after the Winter War. A large part of Finland was cut off and made part of Russia, largely because the Western powers—mainly Britain and France—did not come to help despite their promises. 

This decision by the Western powers had unfortunate consequences, as Finland, disappointed by the Western countries, joined Hitler´s Germany when it attacked the Soviet Union in 1941. Finland only disengaged after stopping Stalin's army's major offensive in Southeastern Finland in the summer of 1944.

It is to be hoped that history does not repeat itself in this matter, and that Ukraine can rely on Western aid long enough for the aggressor to be subdued. Then, the Ukrainians can peacefully build their own future as they wish and are able to do.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Stalemate in Ukraine
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
A woman's logic, Putin's test, and the Netherlands' change