Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

The Iranian government threatened to destroy water desalination plants in the Persian Gulf countries if the United States begins destroying its energy facilities. As a result, millions of people would face a horrific situation—assuming water production were severely disrupted—since the region’s natural water resources are insufficient to meet their needs.

With this threat—or at least by carrying it out—the Iranians would violate international agreements that prohibit attacks on infrastructure vital to civilians, such as drinking water systems and dams. In doing so, they would act just as the Russians have in Ukraine—without facing any particularly serious consequences. And they continue to do so.

Thus, in Putin’s “three-day special operation,” a precedent has been created that encourages the Iranians to act in a questionable manner. At the same time, it demonstrates the toothlessness of international law when it comes to protecting civilians.

* * *

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are one of the most significant proxy actors of Iran against other states and their governments in the region. However, they have been remarkably passive during the attack against their “patron”—perhaps purely out of self-preservation.

Now, however, the Houthis have announced their intention to join the war on the side of the Iranian government if the United States or Israel use the Red Sea against it. In practice, however, the Houthis’ capabilities would likely be limited to harassing ships traveling by sea.

Unfortunately, even that alone would have significant economic consequences for global trade. And therefore—if that were to happen—the rest of the world might have to consider whether the time has finally come to take real action to dismantle the terrorist Houthi regime.

* * *

If the two threats discussed above are extremely serious, the third case that caught my attention is rather amusing. I am referring to Russia’s threat to halt gasoline exports abroad. This comes after its oil infrastructure has been repeatedly destroyed—most recently even in ports along the coast of the Gulf of Finland.

Of course, the Russian threat shows that they have understood how to make use of the situation. They are scoring points by turning necessity into a virtue. It remains to be seen, however, whether this threat will have any impact on the course of the war, in which Ukraine has clearly gained the upper hand this year and now appears likely to emerge as the victor.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

A ship that had been dragging its anchor – Fitburg – damaged a cable running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland yesterday. The Finnish Border Guard acted with its customary efficiency, documented the dangling anchor with photographs, and took the vessel into custody.

The case will next proceed to a more detailed investigation and, in due course, undoubtedly to court. This in itself sounds good, but I would like to draw your attention, dear readers, to what happened last October.

At that time, the Helsinki District Court announced that it would not examine the charges – in a similar case – against the vessel Eagle S, which belongs to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, nor the compensation claims based on those charges. The court held that Finland’s Criminal Code could not be applied to the case.

The matter was commented on at the time by Member of Parliament Jarno Limnéll (National Coalition Party), who stated that “clearer legislation and international agreements are needed that give states the ability to deal with acts of this kind also in exclusive economic zones and international waters.” However, no such measures have emerged during the past couple of months.

For this reason, it seems clear to me that the Fitburg incident – quite evidently a cable sabotage operation ordered by Russia – is, logically speaking, a consequence of the Helsinki District Court’s decision and the shortcomings of international legislation. It is obvious that if breaking cables carries no consequences, Putin’s administration can continue sabotaging them without concern.

It is therefore easy to predict that cables running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea will continue to be damaged – so to speak, “by accident” – in the future. And this will likely continue until the necessary provisions are enacted in international law, despite the expected opposition from Russia and its proxies.

* * *

If one wishes to see something positive in the Fitburg case, it is undoubtedly the efficiency of the actions taken by the Finnish authorities. The cable damage was investigated quickly, and the perpetrator was also stopped.

Because of the legislative problem mentioned above, the only sanction available against the ship’s owner and/or crew will likely be to look for deficiencies in the vessel’s condition, thereby delaying its departure. In this way, the crew would at least be forced to loiter for a while off the coast of Kirkkonummi.

It would be interesting to know whether the shipowner and/or its crew have made an agreement with Vladimir Putin’s administration regarding compensation for those days in rubles or in some stronger currency. The exchange rate of the ruble has recently been in a decline reminiscent of that famous cow’s tail, so the value of days compensated in Russian currency decreases over time.

In any case, any deficiencies found on the vessel must be investigated before it is allowed to leave Finnish territorial waters. And, of course, even the smallest faults discovered on the ship should be required to be carefully repaired before departure clearance is granted – to the vessel and its crew alike.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö kannusti Fitburgin kaapelisabotaasiin

Estonia Needs Its Own Air Force

Finland’s Air Force’s operations outside the country’s borders are restricted — in peacetime — by national regulations according to which fighters do not — without a separate decision — fly in other states’ airspace. Now, however, Estonian politician Kalev Stoicescu has asked Finland to change its practices in this respect.

The background is that Estonia itself does not have a proper air force; the defence of its airspace is handled by fighters from other NATO countries stationed at the Ämari base. In the Baltic Sea area in particular, it may happen that Finnish fighters can react to Russian border violations more quickly than those departing from Ämari.

For Finland the problem is that we have a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. That gives us more than enough to monitor — and, if necessary, to intercept — without expanding the area under surveillance to the south of the Gulf of Finland.

Therefore I am of the opinion that the Estonians would be better advised to consider establishing their own fighter fleet rather than asking the Finns for help. Of course that would be expensive, and the size of Estonia’s economy does not allow for funding a very large fleet, and so would not enable them, in a real crisis, to fend off the Russian Air Force on their own.

On the other hand, an Estonian squadron would not have to operate alone; it would rather complement the support the country already receives from NATO. Through this, Estonia’s defence of its airspace against intruders would also be substantially improved compared with the present.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?

Finland detained a vessel named Eagle S, which had dragged its anchor across the seabed and damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. The investigation took some time, after which the evidence was submitted to a Finnish district court, i.e., the lowest judicial instance.

Instead of assessing the criminal liability of the act and delivering a verdict to those found guilty, the district court ruled that it had no jurisdiction to decide in such a criminal case. Therefore, the matter should be dealt with either in the courts of the crew’s home countries or in the courts of the flag state of the Eagle S. In other words, the case would fall under the jurisdiction of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India.

However, Professor Ulla Tapaninen, a maritime transport expert at Tallinn University of Technology, has noted that “district courts often prefer to move complex cases up to higher judicial levels.” For this reason, she argues it is reasonable that the Eagle S case would be escalated from the district court to the court of appeal, which is one step higher in the judicial hierarchy.

In other words, the Finnish professor at the Estonian university assumes that the legal proceedings will continue in Finland. This raises the question: if that happens, will the court of appeal consider itself competent—contrary to the district court’s conclusion—to convict the crew of the Eagle S?

And if that is the case, who will bear the costs? The Finnish taxpayer, who has already been burdened with bills amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros?

And what would happen after such a farce? Would the case then be transferred to the courts of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India—or would the legal consequences of the damage caused by the Eagle S to the submarine cables ultimately remain unaddressed?

And furthermore, if that is the case, does it mean that in the future the submarine cables running along the seabed of the Baltic Sea and other seas may be cut at will and without consequences?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me

The war between Ukraine and Russia came unusually close to me last night, as I observed strange light phenomena in the southeastern sky—things I had never seen before in my life.

In the morning, I checked the news feed and noticed that Ukraine had carried out a strike on Russia’s Luga Bay, not far from Finland, where its drones—according to Russian officials—ignited Novatek’s terminal specializing in natural gas production. It seems clear that the light phenomena I saw in Finland were connected to that very event.

* * *

During the night, the Ukrainian armed forces had also struck an oil refinery in Syzran, in the Samara region—further continuation of the attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Best of all, these strikes appear to be having consequences for Russia and the Russian people.

Namely, wholesale gasoline prices have risen on the St. Petersburg exchange by nearly ten percent just this month—and over the course of this year, the price has increased by as much as fifty percent. This price surge is also being felt in the wallets of Russian consumers and worsens the already high inflation, meaning the general rise in the cost of living.

And that’s not all: production disruptions at oil refineries have also affected the availability of gasoline in Russia. This too has an impact on ordinary Russians’ daily lives—which, I hope, will lead them to realize the harmfulness of Vladimir Putin’s war policy for themselves and for the Russian people as a whole. And to rise up against his government and its imperialist policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
Suicide and Sudden Death in Russia – What's Really Going On?

Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?

A decision point has been reached regarding Russia's "shadow fleet" operating in the Baltic Sea. Estonia recently failed to stop one of the vessels after Russia offered it support from its air force. At the same time, two Portuguese F-16 fighter jets took to the skies from the nearby Ämari Air Base to support the Estonians—and in Finland, at least one F-18 fighter flew faster than the speed of sound for some reason, according to my own observation, although this has not been publicly acknowledged.

Fortunately, the incident did not escalate into an aerial battle, but it still shows that the risk of escalation over the Baltic Sea is very real. Thus, it is only a matter of time before some sort of confrontation occurs between Russia and NATO.

However, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has now announced: "A Russian ship from the 'shadow fleet' that is under sanctions carried out suspicious maneuvers near the power cable connecting Poland with Sweden. After a successful intervention by our military, the ship sailed off to one of the Russian ports. The ORP 'Heweliusz' is en route to the site of the incident."

It remains to be seen whether the successful interception of the vessel is a sign that even the Russians may have realized that protecting shadow fleet vessels with air support poses an enormous risk. And therefore, for now at least, they may have decided to refrain from such actions. At least, one can hope so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders

Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has confirmed at the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers that a Russian military aircraft – apparently a Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet – violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland to protect an oil tanker sailing under the Gabonese flag, which was en route to the Russian port of Primorsk. The incursion occurred because Estonia attempted to stop this Russian shadow fleet tanker, as it was unflagged, uninsured, and listed under the UK sanctions regime.

According to Margus Tsahkna, the Russian Federation dispatched its fighter jet to monitor the situation, and it breached Estonian airspace for nearly a minute. “We must understand that the situation is extremely serious,” he emphasized.

The Estonian foreign minister stated that the incident is yet another piece of evidence that Russia poses a serious threat beyond Ukraine. Therefore, in his view, NATO must strengthen its deterrence and defense – especially in European member states.

* * *

This event was particularly interesting to me personally, as I happened to hear a loud bang yesterday while I was in a small house in the Finnish countryside – it sounded as if a cannon had been fired right next to me. I don’t know if that sound was connected to the incident over the Gulf of Finland, but I’m fairly certain it was a Finnish fighter jet flying faster than the speed of sound.

That led me to consider the possibility that the Finnish Air Force might have decided to intervene yesterday – although, as far as I know, this hasn’t been reported anywhere – to ensure that the Russian Su-35 pilot didn’t take any reckless actions. Of course, I don’t know if that’s the case, but the incident underlines the need for the countries around the Baltic Sea to intensify their cooperation in order to put an end to the business Russia is conducting through its shadow fleet.

At the same time, Estonia – at the very least – must invest more in its own defense, particularly in its naval and air capabilities, because Finland would not be able to assist its smaller neighbor if it were also under attack. However, in this case, it would – at least in principle – have been possible, and thus the sound I heard may well have been a sign of Finnish-Estonian military cooperation.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s War Rages On – And the World Keeps Funding It
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders

The Baltic Sea has risen to the center of global politics after acts of sabotage targeted its underwater infrastructure. As a result, Finnish authorities stopped an oil tanker and conducted an inspection, which revealed that the vessel required repairs before it could continue its journey.

The perpetrator of the sabotage is officially unknown, but there is near-unanimous consensus that Russia and Vladimir Putin are behind it. In other words, this is part of Putin's hybrid warfare against Western nations.

It was therefore intriguing when Finnish international politics researcher Risto E. J. Penttilä raised the idea that Finland and Estonia could divide the international waters of the Baltic Sea between themselves. In other words, these countries would agree on a border line such that their boundaries would meet directly, leaving no international waters in between.

The aim would not be to hinder maritime traffic to Russia’s ports at the far end of the Gulf of Finland, but rather to significantly improve the ability to monitor vessels in what would become national waters instead of international waters. This would make it easier to repeatedly catch ships involved in potential sabotage.

It remains to be seen whether Penttilä's proposal will lead to changes, as Russia would almost certainly oppose it. In doing so, Russia would inadvertently confirm its involvement in the sabotage and its intention to continue such actions in the future.

However, Russia is unlikely to refrain from such activities, no matter how much embarrassment they cause. This is because the country lacks a free press and freedom of speech, meaning that its citizens would have no understanding of the fact that Putin’s regime is once again making their nation a subject of ridicule.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage
Nordic Nations Unite Against the Growing Threat of Cross-Border Organized Crime
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future

Nordic Nations Unite Against the Growing Threat of Cross-Border Organized Crime

Organized crime, which primarily seeks financial gain through drug trafficking, has become an increasing problem in the Nordic countries. It no longer respects national borders but instead spreads from one country to another. For these reasons, during the Nordic Council meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland announced that they would strengthen their cooperation to combat organized crime.

According to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, "In Norway, we can see parts of these networks coming from Sweden in all of our police districts. We must fight them together. When crime begins to cross borders, the police, government, and judicial systems must also engage in cross-border cooperation."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also highlighted the organized crime coming across the border from Sweden, stating, "We cannot accept this. We are working closely with Sweden to address this issue."

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo likewise described gang crime and cross-border crime as a serious problem. He cited the cooperation between Finnish and Swedish police in the northern Baltic region as a good example of cross-border collaboration.

The roots of Nordic gang crime are in Sweden—likely because Sweden has practiced an even more generous immigration policy than the other Nordic countries. Only time will tell, however, whether the Nordic countries will succeed in reversing this trend or whether they will gradually transform into more closed societies in which people's basic security is slowly eroded.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Minister of Finance Believes Not All Cultures Are Equally Good
Immigration-Specific Violent Crime Increases as Humanitarian Immigration Continues
Sweden's Gang Crime Recruits Children – Is It Time for the EU to Reevaluate Asylum Policies?

Immigration issue

Immigration from developing countries has changed Swedish society in such a way that a country once considered among the safest and most egalitarian in the world has become a haven for violent drug gangs. This is obviously an unfortunate situation for Swedes, but it seems that Finns are not unaffected either.

The Finnish media company MTV3 published today information received from the police indicating that, except for one, all of the recent violent incidents in Oulu, located on Finland's west coast, are related to drug trafficking. Oulu is a large city in its region, with more than 200,000 inhabitants. It is located near the freely trafficked Tornio border station at the northern tip of the Baltic Sea and therefore acts as a kind of drug trade hub through which drugs are distributed further—if they are not sold in the city already.

However, the Finnish media, as usual, remain silent about the fact that the Swedish drug trade has practically entirely shifted to immigrants from the Middle East or Africa, or their descendants. And thus, it is very much an immigration issue as well.

The Finnish police have said some time ago that they have been largely able to prevent the landing of Swedish criminal gangs, but after the incidents in Oulu, one must ask whether they are now failing in this task. This may be hinted at by the police officer interviewed in the MTV3 article, who directed his words to politicians: "more resources should be allocated to preventing drug-related crimes."

However, it must also be noted that drug trafficking would not occur in Sweden or Finland if there were no market for it. And those markets are not an immigration issue, but largely a result of a wealthy middle class increasingly shifting from alcohol to other substances. It is precisely they who can afford the recreational use of drugs like cocaine, thereby maintaining the most profitable branch of the drug business.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The stabbing of the 12-year-old led to political revelry among the left in Finland
Various forms of violence and prevention of terrorist attacks
An immigrant who stands out from the average has been taken into custody

A new route for the Ukrainian crops

Ukraine is one of the most important producer of crops. Therefore the Russian attack to Ukraine might have a major impact on the food availability in some countries - especially in the Near East/North Africa.

Today it was reported by the Helsingin sanomat that a new route has been established to Ukrainian agricultural products. That goes via Poland and Baltic sea. Using that route, the first ship managed to bring 18 000 tons of corn to Spain. The ship - named Alppila - was sailing under the Finnish flag.

This news was of extreme importance taken that hunger is understandably the strongest force causing instability in the developing world and pushing masses of people towards north to look for better life. And that will - ultimately - cause many kinds of problems even in the receiving countries as seen e.g. in Sweden. 

Therefore it was important that the cargo managed to make its way to Spain, and will have successors in the near future. At the same time, it reduces the effects of Russian actions to stop export of Ukrainian products and its attempt to put pressure on western nations to stop their military support to the attacked nation. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Riots in Sweden: what next?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor

Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining

In a recent scientific publication it was noticed that in most of the coastal cities around the world part of the land is subsiding even more quickly than a sea level is rising. Therefore it can be expected that these cities will be challenged by flooding much sooner than the current sea level rise models predict. 

The problem is most serious in South, Southeast, and East Asia, but the phenomenon is also observed in North America, Europe, Africa, and Australia. The main driving force for this subsidence is groundwater extraction.

I live in Finland, and here the soil - including that under the coastal towns - is rising due to a return from a subsidence that occurred during the last ice age. The problem, however, will also affect our life, as the Baltic sea is connected to other seas via Danish straits, and the land there is subsidizing even without human contribution. 

The outcome of this development will be higher rate of water change between the Baltic sea and Oceans. It will have the following two consequences. 

First. The sea water will become more salty than today, which probably affects also the fauna and flora of the unique brackish water ecosystem along our coasts. And as the level of the Baltic sea uniqueness - i.e. exceptional salinity - will be reduced, it will become even more receiving for all kinds of alien species dispersed by human actions, especially via ballast waters from ships sailing between different geographical areas.

This will worsen the biodiversity problem, which already now is considerable. According to this report, around 140 non-indigenous species or new species with unknown origin have been recorded in the Baltic Sea. And as easily understood, the situation cannot be fixed as eradication of non-indigenous species is not a viable management option for a whole sea.  

Second. The deep waters of Baltic sea are largely suffering of hypoxia, i.e. lack of oxygen. Its ultimate cause is an excess nutrient loading from human activities and in summertime its effects are visible as algal blooms. These blooms sink to the bottom and overuse the available oxygen, which leads to mortality of bottom-living organisms, and ultimately creates dead zones.

The situation is partially regenerative, as in some years more salty water from Oceans enter to the Baltic sea, and due to its heaviness compared to the brackish water, sink down to the bottoms. There it pushes the oxygen-free bottom water upwards and reoxidizes the deep sea basins. 

Now, if water change via the Danish straits increases due to the climatic change and land subsidence, also the area of deep basins suffering from hypoxia will reduce. That will ultimately lead to decrease in algal blooms, which currently considerably reduce the recreational value of the marine nature along the coasts of Finland and other Baltic sea countries. 

Taken together, the sea level rise expected due to the predicted climate change and land subsidence, as well as other human actions, can be expected to have negative effects to the nature of the Baltic sea, but  probably increase the recreational value of the sea to humans. 

For such a situation, we have a proverb in Finnish: "ei niin pahaa, ettei jotain hyvääkin". That means "not so bad, that there would not be something good", or to express that with an English proverb: "every cloud has a silver lining".

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Measurements of arctic temperatures and sea ice area agree with each other
World Resources Institute had an arrogant demand