6 April 2022

Measurements of arctic temperatures and sea ice area agree with each other

Antti Lipponen of the Finnish Meteorological Institute tweeted on the arctic temperature, which - according to him - was 4.9℃ warmer than the March average between 1951-1980. He also told that it was fourth highest since March 1950, and showed the following figure.


That accords relatively well with the area of the arctic sea ice 
 (which should be small when the temperature has been high) in March between years 1987-2022, but differs in its early part of the data, although the area of the ice is sixth smallest since 1987. This NSIDC-data based figure is presented below.
 

I do not criticize the data presented by Lipponen or NSIDC, but want to point out that the trend line of both arctic temperature and arctic sea ice - based only on the latest years - could also be interpreted differently. Namely, the trend line based on more than a decade of the data presented by Lipponen and on nine last years of the sea ice data would point towards recent arctic cooling instead of continuous warming. 

Based on this we should ask, whether the current climate models unanimously forecasting continuous warming in the northernmost parts of the planet should be re-evaluated and better fitted to the data? Or at least, to be more cautious with our interpretations as long as the trend visible in the figures above - and similar trends in data sets for other months or whole years - will continue in becoming years. 


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