Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions

The European Union has decided to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism through the following measures: 

1. The use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be prohibited.
2. The price cap on Russian oil will be lowered from $60 to approximately $47 per barrel.
3. Sanctions will be imposed on 105 additional vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, which have been used to circumvent existing sanctions.
4. The exclusion of Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system will be expanded into a full trade embargo.
5. An additional 22 Russian banks will be included in the trade embargo.
6. Trade bans targeting entities in third countries will continue if they are found to be assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
7. The EU proposes sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its partners, and its investment targets.
8. The EU is proposing new export bans to Russia worth over €2.5 billion. These bans would target machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used in industry.
9. The export of dual-use goods to Russia will be prohibited. This includes items that could also be used for manufacturing weapons.
10. The EU has identified 22 new Russian or international companies that have supported Russia’s war economy.

This package is a good step, and hopefully it will lead to the gradual collapse of Russia’s war economy. However, what is needed right now is also more concrete military assistance for the Ukrainian army, so that the front-line situation turns in favor of the Ukrainians instead of the Russians constantly having the upper hand.

The United States – at least according to President Donald Trump – is already delivering a new military aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, now is also the right time for EU countries to do their part, so that the shift in the balance of power between the warring parties will be as significant as possible.

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The Price of Xi´s and Putin's Game Is Paid by Ordinary Russians

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the head of Russia’s Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, that China and Russia should continue to strengthen their cooperation on international and regional affairs.

This development is, in a way, a continuation of the recent trend of China and Russia growing closer in foreign policy. However, it can also be interpreted as China seeking to increase its own influence over Russia in order to eventually turn it into a mere raw material supplier for its own industry.

Nevertheless, due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting Western economic sanctions, President Vladimir Putin—who has driven Russia’s economy into distress—is likely willing to accept Xi’s offers. He is also aware that his own time in power is nearing its end. Therefore, he needs to keep the Russian people satisfied for as long as possible to prevent any revolutionary threats against him and his administration.

In other words, Putin is willing to sacrifice his country’s and his people’s future for the sake of his own security and benefit. And there is little doubt that he will succeed in doing so—or that the price for ordinary Russians will be heavy.

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Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Finnish authorities have detained a ship Eagle S registered in the Cook Islands, suspected of damaging the cable between Finland and Estonia. The vessel was found to be carrying approximately 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline imported from Russia, suggesting an attempt to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia.

Finland has seized the oil, ensuring it will not reach the global market or contribute to funding Putin's war in Ukraine. This is, of course, an excellent outcome.

Finnish authorities have also gathered evidence indicating that the vessel was responsible for the cable damage. One piece of evidence is visible even from outside the ship: one of its anchors is missing, a clear sign that it was lost during the incident.

The police have already identified several members of the crew as suspects in the criminal acts. These include citizens of Georgia and India, who are being investigated for aggravated property destruction and serious violations of sanctions. Furthermore, additional evidence linking the ship to the cable damage has been uncovered, and more is likely to emerge.

The case is undoubtedly a major embarrassment for Vladimir Putin and his administration. For this reason, it was amusing to note Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's claim that the actions of Finnish authorities have no connection to Russia. His response is reminiscent of a child caught with their hand in the cookie jar—his frustration is, to say the least, palpable.

It remains to be seen how the issue will ultimately be resolved. However, it is already clear that international law and regulations need updating to rein in rogue states like Russia on the high seas. Unfortunately, the interests of a few other countries, in addition to Russia, are likely to block such progress, making meaningful change highly improbable.

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Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia

The CEO of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, stated that the country's economic outlook is weak. According to him, "we see significant signs of an economic slowdown."

The reason for Russia's economic woes is Vladimir Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine, which has resulted in enormous amounts of money being spent on military expenses. Additionally, foreign trade has become significantly more difficult due to sanctions imposed by Western countries.

According to the CEO, the weakening of Russia's economy is particularly evident in the construction sector. Inflation is also at a high level, leading the country’s central bank to raise the interest rate to as much as 21%.

Moreover, it is expected to continue raising interest rates later this year. However, the Sberbank CEO emphasized the need for caution in these adjustments to allow for the possibility of boosting economic growth.

It remains to be seen, however, whether—and at what point—Russia's economic troubles will hinder Putin's war efforts in Ukraine. Therefore, it is crucial for Western nations to act decisively on two fronts in this situation.

The first is to more resolutely support Ukraine's military efforts, and the second is to accelerate measures that contribute to Russia's economic decline. Hopefully, this approach is understood by the leaders of the world's largest economies—namely the USA, Germany, the UK, and France.

This is particularly important right now, as Russia's own economic developments are providing an opportunity to significantly impact its war-making capabilities. This, in turn, could pave the way for peace, not only for Ukrainians but also for the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have lost family members to the war's grinding machinery.

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Good news from Ukraine

Excellent news today. Russians are - according to ISW - losing their position in Bakhmut area. Even better, the attacker´s troops partially destroyed there belong to their strongest unit - the Wagner group. 

In addition, Ukrainian army is making progress in Kreminna. If Russian defence collapses there, Ukrainians may proceed towards Crimea without a need to cross the Dnipro river. 

At the same time, Putin´s troops conducted massive air attacks to Kyiv and other Ukrainian areas. And as a black humorist, Sergei Lavrov denied on negotiations on peace, because - according to him - "Ukraine is not yet ready for peace negotiations".

Even more ridiculously, Russians are demanding areas, which are under control by Ukrainian forces. That is, free of Russian occupiers.

 

Despite all these good and humorous news, we should not forget that Russians still have a material superiority over Ukraine. According to this, Russians have 1.5 times more tanks, 3.5 times more armored vehicles and 3 times more artillery systems. But according to General Pekka Toveri of Finland, the quality of (western) materials available to Ukrainians is better than the Russian weaponry. And the spirit and training of Ukrainians are definitely superior to those of Russians.

However, the import of oil from Russia to Europe by tankers ended few weeks ago, and G7-countries and Australia set a maximum price for Russian oil. After these decisions - if they stand - it is likely that the Russian economy is finally going to truly suffer due to Western sanctions.  

That will weaken the Russian society, and if its economical downhill continues for long, the unity of the whole federation might collapse. So, in the best case the dirty game played by Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev in Ukraine may lead to the collapse of the worlds last colonial empire.

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Russian army not comparable to western military services

Russians have lost half of its generals, who have participated in the war in Ukraine. The New Your Times reported that this was enabled by a help of the US intelligence service.

Americans also helped Ukrainians to destroy the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, cruiser Moskva, some time ago. Undoubtedly such a help has been highly valuable to Ukrainian efforts to stop its aggressive neighbor in the war. 

The news referred above must have hit hard president Putin´s thoughts. Before the war in Ukraine he most probably imagined his conventional army to match with the western military forces. But now even Ukrainians - with a help of American intelligence service - are able to stop it and even kill its highest officers. 

It has turned out, that even if the Russian army played a major role 80 years ago in stopping Hitler´s army, its strength has vanished since the fall of the Soviet Union - or perhaps even earlier. And right now rebuilding its capability will be unrealistic for decades due to the economic and technological disconnection from the western markets due to Putin´s own stupidity in attacking to Ukraine. 

Even worse for Putin: these facts are undoubtedly understood also by other Russians in high positions. Therefore it is only a matter of time, before Putin will follow the last Czar and be set aside from his position as the president of Russia. 

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