Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

A ship that had been dragging its anchor – Fitburg – damaged a cable running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland yesterday. The Finnish Border Guard acted with its customary efficiency, documented the dangling anchor with photographs, and took the vessel into custody.

The case will next proceed to a more detailed investigation and, in due course, undoubtedly to court. This in itself sounds good, but I would like to draw your attention, dear readers, to what happened last October.

At that time, the Helsinki District Court announced that it would not examine the charges – in a similar case – against the vessel Eagle S, which belongs to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, nor the compensation claims based on those charges. The court held that Finland’s Criminal Code could not be applied to the case.

The matter was commented on at the time by Member of Parliament Jarno Limnéll (National Coalition Party), who stated that “clearer legislation and international agreements are needed that give states the ability to deal with acts of this kind also in exclusive economic zones and international waters.” However, no such measures have emerged during the past couple of months.

For this reason, it seems clear to me that the Fitburg incident – quite evidently a cable sabotage operation ordered by Russia – is, logically speaking, a consequence of the Helsinki District Court’s decision and the shortcomings of international legislation. It is obvious that if breaking cables carries no consequences, Putin’s administration can continue sabotaging them without concern.

It is therefore easy to predict that cables running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea will continue to be damaged – so to speak, “by accident” – in the future. And this will likely continue until the necessary provisions are enacted in international law, despite the expected opposition from Russia and its proxies.

* * *

If one wishes to see something positive in the Fitburg case, it is undoubtedly the efficiency of the actions taken by the Finnish authorities. The cable damage was investigated quickly, and the perpetrator was also stopped.

Because of the legislative problem mentioned above, the only sanction available against the ship’s owner and/or crew will likely be to look for deficiencies in the vessel’s condition, thereby delaying its departure. In this way, the crew would at least be forced to loiter for a while off the coast of Kirkkonummi.

It would be interesting to know whether the shipowner and/or its crew have made an agreement with Vladimir Putin’s administration regarding compensation for those days in rubles or in some stronger currency. The exchange rate of the ruble has recently been in a decline reminiscent of that famous cow’s tail, so the value of days compensated in Russian currency decreases over time.

In any case, any deficiencies found on the vessel must be investigated before it is allowed to leave Finnish territorial waters. And, of course, even the smallest faults discovered on the ship should be required to be carefully repaired before departure clearance is granted – to the vessel and its crew alike.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö kannusti Fitburgin kaapelisabotaasiin

Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

Iranians are protesting—according to Finnish news sources (Yle, Uutissuomalainen)—because of the deterioration of the country’s economy. According to these reports, the background lies in the sanctions imposed on Iran by Western countries, but I would believe that the unrest has also been influenced by the religious leaders’ earlier saber-rattling toward Israel, which ended in humiliation.

The Islamists who lead the country have resorted to harsh measures against the demonstrators, and the situation has therefore escalated. By contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged the interior minister to listen to the protesters’ “legitimate demands.”

* * *

An interesting additional dimension to this situation has been introduced by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the shah who ruled the country before the Islamist regime. For some time now, he has been seeking to stir the Iranian people into revolution. Yesterday he published a message on social media in which he called on “the people of Iran to join in with the nationwide strikes and protests: government employees, workers in the energy and transportation sectors, truck drivers, nurses, teachers and academics, artisans and entrepreneurs, retirees and those who have lost their savings—everyone, unite and join this national movement.”

In addition, he called on “Iranians abroad—from Australia and East Asia to Europe and North America—to redouble your activities within the framework of the ‘Rise Iran’ campaign to amplify the voice of the Iranian people to the media, international institutions, foreign governments, and parliaments.” and declared that “we will win because we are united and we are many.”

As the year changes tonight, I would like, for my part, to express the hope that Iranians will finally succeed in toppling the Islamists from power and move their ancient homeland from medieval totalitarianism toward democracy—and begin a process that, over time, would lead to a weakening of religious fanaticism throughout the Middle East and Central Asia.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Donald J. Trump
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?

The Trump administration has assured that a possible peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia would “fully safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty.” This is of course a good thing in principle, but it appears in a strange light given that Ukraine’s sovereignty was, in theory, already secured by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

In that agreement, Ukraine gave up the Soviet nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, and in return the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom promised not to use or threaten to use economic or military means to coerce Ukraine or alter its borders. France and China later joined them.

As a result of these great powers’ “commitment,” Ukraine interpreted the memorandum as guaranteeing its security and handed over the nuclear weapons in its possession to Russia. This led, in 2014, to Putin deciding to risk Western reactions and annexing Crimea to Russia.

* * *

Putin’s gamble paid off, as the Crimea operation—carried out by Russian soldiers known as “little green men”—did not lead to practically any consequences. This was despite Russia clearly violating the Budapest Memorandum, using as a pretext the obvious falsehood that Ukraine’s government was illegitimate.

At that time, the United States was led by Barack Obama, who did impose some sanctions on Russia but decided not to intervene further in the aggression. In doing so, he ended up convincing Vladimir Putin that no strong U.S. counterreaction should be expected from a military attack, even when he violated existing international agreements that were interpreted as security guarantees.

* * *

The question, then, is what now guarantees that Ukraine will receive sufficient Western support under a new agreement, should Russia at some point decide to continue its military campaign? Would Donald Trump or one of his successors act like Obama did in 2014? In other words, if a new attack occurred, would political condemnations combined with some sanctions and limited military aid again be considered sufficient?

Given all this, I fully understand why Trump’s assurances do not appeal to Zelensky and other Ukrainians. And instead of the agreement he is now proposing, Ukraine demands for its security NATO membership—which Trump’s peace proposal forbids—since it would at the very least significantly increase the risk for Russia that the West might use military force if it embarked on a new offensive.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is the EU a Real Player in World Politics—or Just a Paper Tiger?
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine Must Defeat Corruption Before Joining the EU

In addition to waging war, Ukraine is also striving to root out the rampant corruption in the country. And no wonder — in 2024, the nation ranked as low as 105th on an index measuring corruption levels. That means Ukrainians are slightly more corrupt than those in Morocco, the Dominican Republic, or Serbia, but still less prone to bribery than people in Algeria, Brazil, or Malawi.

Incidentally, the least corrupt countries in the world were Denmark, Finland, Singapore, and New Zealand. At the very bottom of the list — in positions 178 to 180 — were Venezuela, Somalia, and South Sudan.

* * *

Let us return, then, to Ukraine, which is fighting desperately for its independence against the Russians, with strong support from Western nations. Its leadership has also expressed a firm desire to join the European Union.

In my view, the EU — which itself struggles with corruption — must, despite all sympathy toward the Ukrainians, firmly maintain that this goal cannot be achieved unless corruption is thoroughly eradicated from the country. In this respect, Ukrainians are on the right path, but unfortunately still far from the finish line.

It was therefore rather foolish that President Volodymyr Zelensky tried during the summer to limit anti-corruption investigations — a move that raised doubts, both in me and surely in many others, about whether Ukraine can ever leave behind its Slavic legacy of corruption and one day embrace a Western way of life. 

To be sure, he quickly reversed course, but it is clear that the damage was already done and the stigma of corruption attached to Ukrainians only grew stronger. Erasing that image will not be easy — it will require revelations and punishments that may also reach into Zelensky’s own apparently corrupt inner circle.

It remains to be seen how Ukraine will tackle corruption in the future — and whether the problem can ever truly be brought under control so that the country’s EU membership might one day become even theoretically possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Risks Losing Western Trust by Muzzling Corruption Watchdog
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations
Can Trump Resist the Kremlin’s Lure?

Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine is becoming ever more visible in Russia. Fresh examples of this include the derailment of two trains in the Leningrad region and a drone strike on the Primorsk (Koivisto) oil terminal, which has left Russian oil exports from this port still suspended.

According to a social media account called The War Action, during the past August Ukraine struck 22 oil- and gas-related facilities, 12 railway infrastructure targets, six defense industry companies, three ports and warehouses, and two airports. As a result, this month ten Russian regions have faced such severe fuel shortages that some independent gas stations shut down entirely—and where operations continue, gasoline prices have risen.

At the same time, the balance of power on the battlefield has shifted. For instance, near Dobropillia, Ukrainian armed forces units have advanced west of Volodymyrivka. Several Russian detachments remain encircled near Kucheriv Yar—and even the reinforcements sent to assist them are themselves facing encirclement.

If these developments continue, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s dictator will begin to weaken. His situation is made no easier by the fact that Donald Trump has called on all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia, to impose tougher sanctions against it, and to levy 50–100 percent import tariffs on China.

As a carrot, Trump has offered that if all his demands are met, the United States will also be ready to impose major sanctions against Russia—thereby forcing Vladimir Putin to end his special operation, or at least compelling the Russian people to rid themselves of their dictator.

Putin’s difficult situation is also evident from the fact that even Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko has begun to distance himself from his regime. This was seen, for example, when Belarusian authorities warned the Poles about drones that had recently crossed the border through Belarusian airspace.

Or what do you think, my dear reader? Could all this be a sign that Vladimir Vladimirovich’s countdown has now begun? Or am I just dreaming?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions

The European Union has decided to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism through the following measures: 

1. The use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be prohibited.
2. The price cap on Russian oil will be lowered from $60 to approximately $47 per barrel.
3. Sanctions will be imposed on 105 additional vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, which have been used to circumvent existing sanctions.
4. The exclusion of Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system will be expanded into a full trade embargo.
5. An additional 22 Russian banks will be included in the trade embargo.
6. Trade bans targeting entities in third countries will continue if they are found to be assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
7. The EU proposes sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its partners, and its investment targets.
8. The EU is proposing new export bans to Russia worth over €2.5 billion. These bans would target machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used in industry.
9. The export of dual-use goods to Russia will be prohibited. This includes items that could also be used for manufacturing weapons.
10. The EU has identified 22 new Russian or international companies that have supported Russia’s war economy.

This package is a good step, and hopefully it will lead to the gradual collapse of Russia’s war economy. However, what is needed right now is also more concrete military assistance for the Ukrainian army, so that the front-line situation turns in favor of the Ukrainians instead of the Russians constantly having the upper hand.

The United States – at least according to President Donald Trump – is already delivering a new military aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, now is also the right time for EU countries to do their part, so that the shift in the balance of power between the warring parties will be as significant as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine’s Former Foreign Minister Warns Against Another 1939 
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
Supercell’s Ban: The Sanction That Hit Russians the Hardest

The Price of Xi´s and Putin's Game Is Paid by Ordinary Russians

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the head of Russia’s Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, that China and Russia should continue to strengthen their cooperation on international and regional affairs.

This development is, in a way, a continuation of the recent trend of China and Russia growing closer in foreign policy. However, it can also be interpreted as China seeking to increase its own influence over Russia in order to eventually turn it into a mere raw material supplier for its own industry.

Nevertheless, due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting Western economic sanctions, President Vladimir Putin—who has driven Russia’s economy into distress—is likely willing to accept Xi’s offers. He is also aware that his own time in power is nearing its end. Therefore, he needs to keep the Russian people satisfied for as long as possible to prevent any revolutionary threats against him and his administration.

In other words, Putin is willing to sacrifice his country’s and his people’s future for the sake of his own security and benefit. And there is little doubt that he will succeed in doing so—or that the price for ordinary Russians will be heavy.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?
Highlights of the BRICS Meeting in Kazan, Russia
Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams

Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Finnish authorities have detained a ship Eagle S registered in the Cook Islands, suspected of damaging the cable between Finland and Estonia. The vessel was found to be carrying approximately 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline imported from Russia, suggesting an attempt to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia.

Finland has seized the oil, ensuring it will not reach the global market or contribute to funding Putin's war in Ukraine. This is, of course, an excellent outcome.

Finnish authorities have also gathered evidence indicating that the vessel was responsible for the cable damage. One piece of evidence is visible even from outside the ship: one of its anchors is missing, a clear sign that it was lost during the incident.

The police have already identified several members of the crew as suspects in the criminal acts. These include citizens of Georgia and India, who are being investigated for aggravated property destruction and serious violations of sanctions. Furthermore, additional evidence linking the ship to the cable damage has been uncovered, and more is likely to emerge.

The case is undoubtedly a major embarrassment for Vladimir Putin and his administration. For this reason, it was amusing to note Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's claim that the actions of Finnish authorities have no connection to Russia. His response is reminiscent of a child caught with their hand in the cookie jar—his frustration is, to say the least, palpable.

It remains to be seen how the issue will ultimately be resolved. However, it is already clear that international law and regulations need updating to rein in rogue states like Russia on the high seas. Unfortunately, the interests of a few other countries, in addition to Russia, are likely to block such progress, making meaningful change highly improbable.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Downing of the Azerbaijani Plane Is a War Crime That Must Be Condemned
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat

Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia

The CEO of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, stated that the country's economic outlook is weak. According to him, "we see significant signs of an economic slowdown."

The reason for Russia's economic woes is Vladimir Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine, which has resulted in enormous amounts of money being spent on military expenses. Additionally, foreign trade has become significantly more difficult due to sanctions imposed by Western countries.

According to the CEO, the weakening of Russia's economy is particularly evident in the construction sector. Inflation is also at a high level, leading the country’s central bank to raise the interest rate to as much as 21%.

Moreover, it is expected to continue raising interest rates later this year. However, the Sberbank CEO emphasized the need for caution in these adjustments to allow for the possibility of boosting economic growth.

It remains to be seen, however, whether—and at what point—Russia's economic troubles will hinder Putin's war efforts in Ukraine. Therefore, it is crucial for Western nations to act decisively on two fronts in this situation.

The first is to more resolutely support Ukraine's military efforts, and the second is to accelerate measures that contribute to Russia's economic decline. Hopefully, this approach is understood by the leaders of the world's largest economies—namely the USA, Germany, the UK, and France.

This is particularly important right now, as Russia's own economic developments are providing an opportunity to significantly impact its war-making capabilities. This, in turn, could pave the way for peace, not only for Ukrainians but also for the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have lost family members to the war's grinding machinery.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
It Is Time for Vladimir Putin to Acknowledge the Facts and Do Dmitry Medvedev a Favor
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization

Good news from Ukraine

Excellent news today. Russians are - according to ISW - losing their position in Bakhmut area. Even better, the attacker´s troops partially destroyed there belong to their strongest unit - the Wagner group. 

In addition, Ukrainian army is making progress in Kreminna. If Russian defence collapses there, Ukrainians may proceed towards Crimea without a need to cross the Dnipro river. 

At the same time, Putin´s troops conducted massive air attacks to Kyiv and other Ukrainian areas. And as a black humorist, Sergei Lavrov denied on negotiations on peace, because - according to him - "Ukraine is not yet ready for peace negotiations".

Even more ridiculously, Russians are demanding areas, which are under control by Ukrainian forces. That is, free of Russian occupiers.

 

Despite all these good and humorous news, we should not forget that Russians still have a material superiority over Ukraine. According to this, Russians have 1.5 times more tanks, 3.5 times more armored vehicles and 3 times more artillery systems. But according to General Pekka Toveri of Finland, the quality of (western) materials available to Ukrainians is better than the Russian weaponry. And the spirit and training of Ukrainians are definitely superior to those of Russians.

However, the import of oil from Russia to Europe by tankers ended few weeks ago, and G7-countries and Australia set a maximum price for Russian oil. After these decisions - if they stand - it is likely that the Russian economy is finally going to truly suffer due to Western sanctions.  

That will weaken the Russian society, and if its economical downhill continues for long, the unity of the whole federation might collapse. So, in the best case the dirty game played by Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev in Ukraine may lead to the collapse of the worlds last colonial empire.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Winter war showed the way to help Ukraine
Alexander Dugin calls for Putin´s murder
Ukrainian army should be equipped with the best possible weapons against missiles

Russian army not comparable to western military services

Russians have lost half of its generals, who have participated in the war in Ukraine. The New Your Times reported that this was enabled by a help of the US intelligence service.

Americans also helped Ukrainians to destroy the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, cruiser Moskva, some time ago. Undoubtedly such a help has been highly valuable to Ukrainian efforts to stop its aggressive neighbor in the war. 

The news referred above must have hit hard president Putin´s thoughts. Before the war in Ukraine he most probably imagined his conventional army to match with the western military forces. But now even Ukrainians - with a help of American intelligence service - are able to stop it and even kill its highest officers. 

It has turned out, that even if the Russian army played a major role 80 years ago in stopping Hitler´s army, its strength has vanished since the fall of the Soviet Union - or perhaps even earlier. And right now rebuilding its capability will be unrealistic for decades due to the economic and technological disconnection from the western markets due to Putin´s own stupidity in attacking to Ukraine. 

Even worse for Putin: these facts are undoubtedly understood also by other Russians in high positions. Therefore it is only a matter of time, before Putin will follow the last Czar and be set aside from his position as the president of Russia. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor