The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army

Happy Finnish Mother’s Day to all mothers!

People say that mothers fight for their children like lionesses. In the same way, the Ukrainians have acted by stretching Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special military operation” into a war that has now lasted for more than four years.

As a result, the Russian army had to settle for a rather modest Victory Day parade yesterday. Unlike in previous years, there were no missiles on display — nor even the T-34 tank designed in the 1930s, which was still present in 2023. Perhaps the last of those is already on its way to Ukraine as well?

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In one respect, however, Vladimir Putin may well be right. In his speech, he stated that the war “is moving toward its conclusion, but it nevertheless remains a serious matter.”

Unfortunately for Putin, the war has reached its culmination point, and his army’s offensive has stalled much like Hitler’s forces at Stalingrad in 1942. Nor does the future appear any brighter for him, because Ukrainian technical ingenuity is set to reverse the course of the war: new drones and missiles are already pounding Russia’s arms and oil industries, while armed robots have begun supporting — and when necessary even replacing — Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.

* * *

Many Russians who have supported Putin up to this point have noticed this as well. But for now, fear of failure has reportedly prevented a coup.

This too is familiar from Hitler’s Germany, where the Austrian corporal remained in power so long that he ultimately chose to end his own life. By then, the Red Army had already reached Berlin, meaning Germany’s defeat in the war had been obvious for quite some time.

Putin’s advantage, of course, is that he ultimately has nuclear missiles at his disposal, and fear of them undoubtedly prevents the Ukrainians from attempting to conquer Russian territory. Thus, he cannot end up in a situation similar to Adolf Hitler’s in 1945 — even though such an outcome would undoubtedly be viewed by many as roughly equally positive for humanity as a whole.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Is the EU a Real Player in World Politics—or Just a Paper Tiger?

Based on the latest news, it now appears that the EU will have to decide whether it is a significant actor or merely a paper tiger in world politics. I mean that the United States has pressured Ukraine to accept a peace plan dictated by Russia—or at least one that appears to be so—circulating under the name of Donald Trump.

According to media reports, the pressure has taken the form of threatening Ukrainians with a reduction in American military aid and intelligence support if the plan is not accepted. This is a serious situation, because—as I understand it—it is perfectly clear that Ukraine cannot continue the war in its current circumstances without U.S. intelligence assistance, when survival against the enemy is already hanging by a thread.

If Donald Trump is serious, Ukraine is left with two options: either to accept a peace agreement highly similar to the one effectively forced upon Finland in 1944, or for Europeans to step in and fully replace American support.

That does not mean that Germany’s Merz, France’s Macron, and Britain’s Starmer can simply continue to offer verbal reassurances of their support. The major EU countries must now genuinely commit to large-scale assistance for Ukraine, because the shoulders of the Baltic states and the Nordic countries alone are in no way sufficient to stop Russia. Otherwise, Ukraine will be handed over to the Russians.

Based on current information, a decision will be made by next Thursday, as Trump is waiting until then for Zelensky’s answer. After that, he—possibly due to some form of blackmail related to his past trips to Moscow—will abandon the Ukrainians to their fate.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Questionable Achievements of Donald Trump's Foreign Policy

Russians Turn to Museum Trains

A recent news report revealed that Russia is operating heavily armed armored trains. This is interesting, as I had thought such machines had long since become mere historical anecdotes.

At the beginning of the Finnish Civil War in 1918, the railway network in southern Finland and most of the railway workshops fell into the hands of the Reds. As a result, the revolutionaries began manufacturing armored trains and obtained practical knowledge from the Russians on how to use them.

The military usefulness of trains tied to railways turned out to be less significant than hoped, even though Bolshevik Russia sent skilled armored train operators who provided guidance and advice on their use. Nevertheless, they were not without importance, and the weapon system continued to be developed in Finland up until the Second World War.

Once the war began, however, it became clear that advances in air power had made armored trains highly vulnerable, rendering them practically obsolete by the 1940s. Consequently, as early as 1942, they were converted into anti-aircraft batteries defending key troop and material transports, unloading stations, and railway yards, by equipping them with anti-aircraft guns.

Apparently, this obsolescence has not been recognized in Russia, since armored trains are still in use there. Or perhaps the country’s military believes it controls the airspace so completely that these rail-bound “monster trains” can still operate effectively—at least to secure home lines far from the actual front.

There is, of course, another possibility: that the reappearance of armored trains in the Russian army merely reflects the growing difficulties it faces as losses in men and materiel increase, and as Ukrainians strike infrastructure targets ever deeper behind the front lines.

In this light, the situation of the army carrying out Putin’s “special operation” is not made any easier by the announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that he will impose sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Nor is the effectiveness of this measure likely to diminish as Russia’s icy, dark winter approaches—a season when people are more dependent than ever on a functioning energy supply.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges
Rediscovered Relics: The Story Behind Finland's WWII Weapon Caches
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war

Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. According to the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, there are no prohibited areas.

So now is a good time to guess where Ukraine will strike first. Could the target even be the Kremlin in Moscow? Or some distant, particularly significant arms factory or oil refinery? Or perhaps St. Petersburg — the former capital of the Russian tsars — which is actually quite close to Finland?

If I had to bet, I’d put my money on a fairly close target: namely the Crimean Bridge, the destruction of which would have major strategic significance in the ongoing war.

I don’t have any inside information, so after writing this I’ll be waiting eagerly for tomorrow’s news from Ukraine. Hopefully it will be good.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace

On Monday evening, the airports of the capitals of Norway and Denmark – Oslo and Kopenhagen, respectively – were temporarily closed due to drones being flown nearby. It is clear that the drones were not flown by accident, but deliberately. Therefore, it was not hobbyists, but some actor or actors who wanted to cause disturbances.

Personally, I suspect it was the same party that shortly before had flown its fighter jets into Estonian airspace and its drones into Polish airspace. That is why this incident must be taken very seriously.

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Norway also announced today that Russia has violated its airspace three times during the spring and summer. Two of the aircraft that entered the airspace without authorization were fighter jets, while the third was a small transport or passenger plane, mainly operated by Aeroflot.

According to Norway’s foreign minister, “if Russia deliberately challenges the airspace of multiple countries, this is extremely serious.” This is a view worth sharing, but at the same time it should be noted that even the most temperate cat may scratch if provoked enough – and it would be highly irresponsible if the aforementioned party were to cross NATO countries’ threshold of irritation.  

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Today, information was published in Finland about how the country has prepared for the appearance of unauthorized aircraft crossing the border. Such an event cannot go unnoticed, as Finnish airspace is monitored by radar around the clock, and practically all incoming flying objects near Finland’s borders are detected well in advance.

If there is a risk that a device approaching the border might enter Finnish airspace without permission, Finnish fighter jets are dispatched. As the violations of Estonian airspace have shown, this does not take long. For example, Finnish jets arrived faster than the Italian ones, which took off from Estonia itself.

If Finnish airspace is actually violated, radio contact is first attempted with the intruding aircraft, if possible. If that fails, a fighter jet flies alongside the foreign aircraft to get the pilot’s attention, for example by rocking its wings. In addition, the intruder can be warned by firing flares, which demonstrates readiness to use weapons and makes clear that the fighter is armed.

In peacetime, a manned aircraft is only fired upon if authorization is given by the national leadership. However, this does not need to be awaited if a Finnish fighter itself comes under fire, or if the intruding aircraft uses its weapons against another Finnish target. In such cases, the pilot has the right to destroy the aircraft that has crossed the border at their own discretion.

Unmanned aerial vehicles, however, are always shot down immediately if they cross into Finnish airspace. Therefore, long drone flights from across the border, such as those seen in Poland, are not possible in Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been a shock to military leadership worldwide, as old doctrines of warfare have been put to the test there – and in many respects, outright discarded. As a result, every army’s leadership has been forced to consider how to respond to these newly emerged challenges. For arms manufacturers, the task has become figuring out how to meet these needs.

In this regard, an illuminating example is provided by Patria, a manufacturer of military vehicles, which has unveiled a new armored personnel carrier equipped with a machine gun – the Patria TRACKX. This is a next-generation vehicle that specifically incorporates lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

One such lesson is the threat posed by drones, which until now has scarcely been taken into account in military vehicle design. TRACKX brings a change in this area, as its protection is designed specifically to neutralize drone attacks.

Another key issue highlighted by the war in Ukraine for military vehicle design is the requirement for high performance in challenging conditions. For this reason, TRACKX runs on rubber tracks but can also move at high speed when needed. This has been demonstrated in practice, as TRACKX set a new world speed record for tracked vehicles in the spring – 88 kilometers per hour.

Patria expects that, due to these innovative features, there will be significant demand for the vehicle both within the EU and beyond. According to the company, serial production will begin in 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine Action Suomi - a Bona Fide Actor or False Flag Organization?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

According to media reports, Ukrainians have developed a cruise missile, "Flamingo", with a warhead weighing as much as one thousand kilograms and the capability to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. If the information is correct, this weapon could destroy key parts of Russia’s arms industry and/or critical facilities that bring money to the war chest, such as oil refineries.

Reports claim that these missiles are already in production, with one being manufactured per day. That is not enough to work wonders yet, but within a couple of months, according to Ukrainians, they will be able to produce dozens per week.

Ukraine has also had time to test these missiles in practice, though no details about the results have been released. However, it is clear that the most important question in this regard concerns how effectively Russian air defense can defend potential targets—meaning whether it can shoot the missiles down as they travel through Russian airspace toward their objectives.

Still, one can hope that at least some of the missiles will get through and significantly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the weaponry it is constantly losing in Ukraine. In that way, the frontline situation could finally shift clearly in Ukraine’s favor.

* * *

In addition to Ukraine’s new missile, Russia faces another problem: the continuous decline in volunteers willing to go fight in Ukraine.

As a result, Vladimir Putin’s regime has apparently resorted to illegal methods to obtain soldiers to fight on its behalf. One example is 18-year-old Said Murtazaliev, who lived in southern Russia and dreamed of becoming a doctor.

In January 2025, before his final year of high school, he traveled to Moscow to spend a relaxing winter holiday. Instead, Murtazaliev disappeared without his family being able to reach him.

A few days later, however, his mother received a call from the police. During the call, a young woman told her that the boy had been detained in Moscow for some kind of minor fraud.

According to the police, the boy had signed a contract with the army and left to fight in Ukraine. Later, Said told his mother that he had been subjected to brutal torture by police in Moscow, and that he was released only after agreeing to go to Ukraine.

* * *

This and many other similar cases show that Putin’s regime has run out of legal means to get men to die in Ukraine. For this reason, he has intensified the conscription of young men into military service.

To that end, an electronic draft system has been developed. A summons sent through it is valid regardless of whether the conscript has seen it. According to Russian law, however, conscripts may not be sent to fight in Ukraine, since the country is not officially at war there, but only conducting a “special military operation.”

For this reason, many conscripts also fall victim to the same kind of violent coercion in recruitment as that experienced by Said Murtazaliev. To escape it, they are forced to sign a contract agreeing to go to Ukraine.

All in all, it is clear that actions like those described above are gradually leading to growing dissatisfaction with Putin and his regime. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will ultimately lead to an uprising and for Moscow’s current ruler to share the fate of Tsar Nicholas II. In my opinion, that would be more than desirable. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions

The European Union has decided to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism through the following measures: 

1. The use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be prohibited.
2. The price cap on Russian oil will be lowered from $60 to approximately $47 per barrel.
3. Sanctions will be imposed on 105 additional vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, which have been used to circumvent existing sanctions.
4. The exclusion of Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system will be expanded into a full trade embargo.
5. An additional 22 Russian banks will be included in the trade embargo.
6. Trade bans targeting entities in third countries will continue if they are found to be assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
7. The EU proposes sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its partners, and its investment targets.
8. The EU is proposing new export bans to Russia worth over €2.5 billion. These bans would target machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used in industry.
9. The export of dual-use goods to Russia will be prohibited. This includes items that could also be used for manufacturing weapons.
10. The EU has identified 22 new Russian or international companies that have supported Russia’s war economy.

This package is a good step, and hopefully it will lead to the gradual collapse of Russia’s war economy. However, what is needed right now is also more concrete military assistance for the Ukrainian army, so that the front-line situation turns in favor of the Ukrainians instead of the Russians constantly having the upper hand.

The United States – at least according to President Donald Trump – is already delivering a new military aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, now is also the right time for EU countries to do their part, so that the shift in the balance of power between the warring parties will be as significant as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine’s Former Foreign Minister Warns Against Another 1939 
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
Supercell’s Ban: The Sanction That Hit Russians the Hardest

Activism Without Truth

Politically left-wing Palestine activists seem to have an exceptionally poor grasp of facts. The latest example of this came yesterday, when Palestine Action Finland defaced the office of the Norwegian-Finnish ammunition and weapons manufacturer Nammo with red paint, claiming that the company had participated in Israel’s actions in Gaza by supplying weapons and ammunition to its army.

In reality, Nammo has not supplied weapons or ammunition to the Israeli army since it began its operations in Gaza to root out Hamas terrorists. The Nammo products currently in Israel originated from the United States, to which they were sold in 2008. About 15 years later, they made their way from the U.S. to Israel.

This raises the question: what should we think of people who resort to acts of terror without even bothering to check whether their so-called justifications are true? Not to mention that through their actions, these activists effectively showed support for the very terrorist act that started the war.

Likewise, this group of people seems unaware—or fails to grasp the significance—of the fact that Western countries have supported the Palestinians with massive sums of money over the years, much of which has been used to support terrorist activities, such as the construction of an extensive tunnel network in Gaza. For that reason, they cannot be considered blameless in the current suffering of the region’s inhabitants.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Security Council Resolution Draft Risks Encouraging Terrorism
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons
Palestinians: acknowledging facts is the beginning of wisdom!

Estonians Have Learned from Their History — and Defend Accordingly

One of the countries that regained its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union was Estonia—the northernmost and smallest of the Baltic states. It has a population of just under 1.5 million people, of whom 68.5 percent are ethnic Estonians, 21 percent Russians, 5.4 percent Ukrainians, and the rest people of other ethnic backgrounds.

This nation has built a prosperous state, where GDP per capita has risen from $2,685.90 in 1993 to an impressive $31,170. In other words, it has grown more than elevenfold—or by 1,160 percent.

Estonia was independent from 1918 until 1940, when the Soviet Union occupied it along with the other Baltic states, based on the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact it had signed with Nazi Germany. Incidentally, Stalin also issued ultimatums to Finland on similar grounds and eventually launched a full-scale military invasion. However, the Finns did not yield and managed to preserve their independence.

Having learned from all this, Estonians have taken national defense seriously since regaining independence. As a sign of this commitment, Estonia joined NATO as quickly as possible, and the country’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, has stated that Estonia allocates five percent of its gross domestic product to actual military spending.

Unlike in many other countries, high defense spending enjoys broad public support in Estonia. Among Estonian speakers, 41 percent believe defense spending should be increased to five percent of GDP, and 34 percent support a defense budget of 3.5 percent. Even among Russian speakers, 17 percent favor 3.5 percent, and five percent support increasing it to five percent.

This strong public backing allows Estonia’s defense forces to develop their capabilities further. In practice, this has included the acquisition of HIMARS air defense systems and long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. The rationale behind the latter is the principle that if Russia attacks Estonia, the war must be taken immediately to Russian soil.

I believe that Estonia’s perspective is worth listening to not only in neighboring countries that share a border with Russia but also in Central Europe—and even along the Atlantic coast.

This is because people in those countries can only remain secure if the whole of Europe sends a clear signal that Russia has no chance of success—neither in the borderlands nor further west—thanks to overwhelming support available to frontline countries like the Baltics, should it ever be necessary.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia

Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Former Commander of the Finnish Defence Forces Jarmo Lindberg has commented on last night’s U.S. strikes on Iran. According to him, Trump likely achieved his objective: halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Lindberg stated that Iran does have a nuclear weapons program, even though some have doubted its existence. This is because, “nuclear enrichment facilities are not needed for normal nuclear power plant operations. The type of nuclear material used in energy-producing power plants, like those in Finland, cannot be used to make bombs. Separate enrichment plants are required to produce material suitable for nuclear warheads.”

Regarding the U.S. Air Force strike itself, Lindberg said that “a very limited strike was carried out against three specific targets—bunkers located deep inside Iran. In addition, only a small number of precision weapons were used, such as B-2 stealth bombers, MOP bombs, and cruise missiles.”

Lindberg also noted that Iran had no real chance to defend itself from the strike because Israel had crippled its air defenses by destroying radar systems and surface-to-air missile batteries. Thus, “Iran essentially had no eyes to see it coming. And even if it had seen it, it wouldn’t have had the means to intercept it.”

As for Iran’s ability to respond to the U.S. strike, Lindberg sees it as limited. Furthermore, the U.S. has prepared for possible retaliation by moving its ships away from ports near Iran, meaning “there are currently few viable targets for the ayatollahs’ military or missiles.”

Iran could also “declare the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to attack maritime traffic passing through it. Since a significant portion of the world's oil supply flows through that strait, such a move would immediately spike oil prices, which the markets would then react to.”

However, it is also certain that closing the Strait of Hormuz would lead to retaliatory actions by the United States and likely also by the United Kingdom and France—actions against which Iran has virtually no effective weapon other than fanatical religious fervor. While that could result in some kind of suicide attacks, possibly against civilian populations, “from a military standpoint, their significance is negligible.”

For this reason, Lindberg believes the greatest focus now shifts to the future of Iran’s clerical regime. In other words, “what will their reactions and fate be in a situation where the United States has entered the war.”

For my part, I hope their reaction would be a flight to Moscow and leaving power to the Iranian opposition. Or alternatively, a revolution by the opposition, followed by proper punishment of the ayatollahs for the sins of past decades.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran Exposes the Finnish Green-Left as Intellectually Dishonest or Lacking Values
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine

Finland Decides to Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty — But What Business Is It of Guterres?

Parliament decided today by a clear majority that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, allowing its Defence Forces to once again utilize anti-personnel mines in their operations. The vote result was 157 in favor and 18 against.

Thus ended the risky decision taken in 2011 by Finland’s Social Democratic President Tarja Halonen and the National Coalition Party’s Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen. At that time, the only parties voting against the treaty in Parliament were the Finns Party and a small number of Centre Party representatives.

Today, those who voted against the withdrawal agreement — effectively voting in favor of Putin — included ten members of the Left Alliance parliamentary group (1), seven members of the Greens (2), and one representative of the Swedish People's Party (3). These individuals are widely regarded in Finland as errand boys and girls for Putin.

All other members present supported the reintroduction of anti-personnel mines as a means of defense, to ensure that Russia remains on the eastern side of the approximately 1,300-kilometer border between the two countries. Many recognized the urgency of this need already in 2014, when Putin’s "little green men" occupied Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine. For those slower to grasp the situation, the reality became clear in 2022, when the Russian army invaded Ukraine.

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In this context, I cannot help but express my astonishment at UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who took it upon himself to interfere in Finnish decision-making by strongly advocating for Finland to remain in the treaty. The reasons for this are anyone’s guess, as it would seem quite strange if the head of the United Nations were somehow under the influence of the Russian dictator.

Of course, it’s also possible that Guterres was simply unaware of how Finland uses anti-personnel mines and feared they would pose a danger to civilians. However, this fear is unfounded, because — unlike in developing countries — Finnish mines are not scattered randomly in the terrain.

Instead, the Finnish army lays minefields only when there is a clearly identified threat, and even then, their locations are recorded both on paper and in electronic systems. This ensures that minefields can be dismantled immediately when no longer needed — and therefore do not pose a threat to civilian lives or health.

1. Timo Furuholm, Veronika Honkasalo. Mai Kivelä, Anna Kontula, Minja Koskela, Pia Lohikoski, Laura Meriluoto, Aino-Kaisa Pekonen, Hanna Sarkkinen and Johannes Yrttiaho)
2. Fatim Diarra, Tiina Elo, Bella Forsgrén, Inka Hopsu, Saara Hyrkkö, Jenni Pitko and Oras Tynkkynen
   
3. Eva Biaudét

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
António Guterres, You Won’t Stop Russia – But Mines Might
Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia
Will Finland Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty?

Police to Finnish Graduates: Leave Fireworks, Blades, and Booze at Home

As many know, Europe has changed rapidly in recent decades. In the United Kingdom, massive grooming gangs have come to light; France and Germany have experienced acts of terrorism; and in Sweden, there are residential areas where emergency vehicles will not enter without police protection.

In Finland, changes have so far been more modest, but today the police issued a statement concerning next weekend’s school graduation celebrations, advising: “Leave fireworks, bladed weapons, and intoxicants out of the festivities!” This is because — according to the police — “the past few years have shown that although celebrations have mostly gone peacefully, as night falls, party venues become unsafe.”

Of course, young people finishing school have known how to use intoxicants before, but new phenomena in recent years include threats — and even use — of bladed weapons, as well as firing fireworks directly at people. Everyone can speculate on the reasons, and many may even know the real cause behind the increase in these incidents.

Still, one can hope that graduation celebrations across the country will pass peacefully, without anyone suffering stab wounds — let alone losing their life — or burn injuries caused by fireworks. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Increasing Criminality Among Swedish Students Stems from Their Values
Finland to Tighten Citizenship Requirements Further
The Swedish Immigration Catastrophe – A Cautionary Tale

The Poor Can't Afford to Buy Second-best

The defense industry of my home country produces high-quality equipment. For example, the future standard firearms for Finnish and Swedish soldiers are expected to be based on the entirely new Sako M23 system, covering everything from assault rifles to precision weapons. When it comes to troop transport, one of the best options already available is the 6x6 armored personnel carrier, considered the best in the world and recently sold, for example, to Germany.

Still, it is clear that a country the size of Finland cannot rely solely on domestically produced weapons systems. It also needs weaponry manufactured elsewhere. Therefore, attention must be turned toward systems regarded as the best in the world in each category.

In this regard, it is significant that the Israeli Defense Forces have recently demonstrated their effectiveness in Syria, Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon. Following these displays, there can be no doubt that the armed forces of the Jewish state possess top-tier weapons systems.

This applies to both imported and domestically produced military equipment. That, in turn, means that Finland—located right next to Russia—is extremely interested in such systems. However, the security-policy-irresponsible left, which sympathizes with the Palestinians, has taken a stance against this.

The most controversial case has been the Israeli-made David’s Sling, a high-altitude air defense missile system. Its necessity has been recently demonstrated by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Given that Finland has a vastly larger and extremely dangerous neighbor, only the best available equipment should be considered for procurement—and David’s Sling systems have indeed already been ordered.

Finland is also renewing its navy, and for that purpose, both new and older vessels are being equipped with Gabriel surface-to-surface missiles from Israel. Additionally, counter-battery radars were acquired, as their necessity became apparent early on in the war in Ukraine.

Beyond these, the Finnish Defence Forces use a range of Israeli-made weapons, including Spike anti-tank and coastal missiles, Orbiter 2 mini-drones, and communication and information systems. When you're poor, you can't afford to buy second-best.

Of course, one can only hope that none of the aforementioned weapons—or others, such as the recently ordered F-35 fighters or Leopard tanks—will ever need to be used. If that turns out to be the case, it will demonstrate that a top-tier army equipped with the best weapons available is a sufficient deterrent even against an imperialist like Vladimir Putin. One would hope that this is also understood by the political left, who are still dreaming of their own fantasy world where all nations are happy and friendly.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine
Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons

Representatives of the terrorist organization Hamas are scheduled to meet with mediators of the ceasefire negotiations in Cairo, Egypt. Perhaps for that reason, Hamas has announced that it is ready to release all remaining hostages and agree to a five-year ceasefire.

However, it refuses to give up its weapons, which has been Israel’s condition for peace. In other words, Hamas’s proposal is unlikely to have been made in earnest — although of course, I would very much hope that it were.

This led me to reflect on why Hamas insists on keeping its weapons. During the Gaza war, it has become extremely clear that their weapons are of no real use against the Israeli army, and thus the organization is completely incapable of protecting Palestinian civilians with them.

This leaves two obvious possibilities. In my view, the more likely one is that Hamas uses its weapons to maintain control over the Gaza Strip by suppressing dissent among Palestinians. The motive for holding on to power is the opportunity it provides for personal enrichment and a comfortable life.

This fact is illustrated by the enormous wealth amassed by Palestinian leaders — for example, the billions of dollars in assets owned by the family of the late Ismael Haniyeh, or Khalid Mashal’s fortune, reportedly reaching up to many billion euros. Similarly, Yahya Sinwar, who led Gaza until his death, and Mussa Abu Marzouk also had fortunes amounting to billions.

The second — though in my opinion less likely — possibility is that Hamas intends to continue using its weapons for terrorist attacks against Jews. Without significant military capability, such attacks would be reduced to sporadic stabbings and similar — repugnant yet relatively minor — actions, making it impossible for terrorists to even dream of carrying out assaults similar to that of October 7 in the future.

As a result, Hamas and its leadership might find it difficult to maintain their popularity among Palestinians. The effectiveness of terrorism is illustrated by the fact that every terror attack committed in Western countries has been wildly celebrated by many Palestinians (example).

Of course, the two possibilities I have described are not mutually exclusive. Rather, their combination provides a strong motive for refusing to surrender weapons. And naturally, there may be a variety of other reasons for retaining them as well. However, it is clear — as I have stated — that Hamas’s weapons have absolutely nothing to do with defending Palestinians from any potential threat posed by Israel. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
In Finland, the Enemy Is Clear – and Now the Truth Is Emerging for the Palestinians Too
The Complete Demilitarization of Gaza: What Would It Mean for the Palestinians?
Questions to the Winners of the Gaza War

From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins

Russia's attack on Ukraine has led to a complete transformation of Finland's foreign policy. Whereas during the Soviet era, politicians in my home country often aligned themselves with the positions of our great eastern neighbor, and even at the beginning of this millennium avoided directly criticizing the blatant injustices it committed, today they are ready to respond to Russia's actions exactly as they deserve.

We saw another example of this today when the Finnish Parliament — unanimously, note, unanimously, from the left to the right — approved the government's proposal for a complete ban on Russian real estate acquisitions. As a result, Minister Antti Häkkänen (National Coalition Party) expressed his "great joy that Parliament so comprehensively supported this proposal, whose goal is to strengthen national security. This decision sends a clear message: we will not allow Finland to be destabilized."

Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself, Russian forces have once again attacked and even made some advances, but only at great cost. In particular, Ukrainian drones have caused significant destruction among the attackers. According to Ukrainian sources, drones have been responsible for as much as 70 percent of the losses suffered by Russian forces.

According to Finnish expert Pasi Paroinen, satellite images have made it possible to assess that Russia has almost no old Soviet-era stockpiles left. It remains to be seen what Putin and his military leadership will do once the very last museum piece has been retrieved from storage and sent to be destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

The question is: should they finally give up?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

Swedish School Shooting with Automatic Weapon Highlights Nation in Crisis

I am writing this text just as a shooting has taken place today at an adult education center in Örebro, Sweden, where people have been shot dead. The shooter had access to an automatic weapon, so this does not appear to be an ordinary school shooting but a more serious incident.

According to social media reports, Swedish language lessons for immigrants are provided at the shooting site. However, based on a widely circulated photograph, the shooter does not appear to be of immigrant background but ethnically Swedish. It remains to be seen whether the photo is authentic.

The case will certainly become clearer in time, but even at this stage, it can be said that something strange has happened in Sweden in recent years, turning what was once the world's safest society into something entirely different. This was also hinted at by the country's Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, who stated less than a week ago that "we are clearly unable to control this wave of violence right now."

It remains to be seen whether the Swedish government will regain control of the country and by what means it will attempt to do so. At this point, the only certainty is that Kristersson's task will not be an easy one.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Swedish Immigration Catastrophe – A Cautionary Tale
Police Ban Public Fight Between Neo-Nazis and Street Gangs in Finland
Immigration Policy Should Be Based on Evidence

Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

Finland’s military self-sufficiency is increasing as a factory for producing TNT explosives is being built on the country’s western coast. This initiative also aims to address the shortage of explosives affecting Europe and the resulting problems in ammunition production. According to Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen (National Coalition Party), "the investment also enables the continued long-term support for Ukraine."

The factory will be the second large production facility in the EU for TNT explosives used in artillery and mortar shells, as currently, the only such facility is in Poland. Additionally, there is small-scale production in Serbia.

The project is being carried out by the Finnish explosives manufacturer Forcit, which expects production to begin in 2028. However, the initiative involves cooperation with Finland’s defense administration, authorities, and local communities. 

Its impact on Finland’s and Europe’s defense capabilities, military security of supply, and employment will be significant. No wonder Finland’s defense minister was excited about it.

* * *

Also, another interesting military news story was published today. According to it, Finland will deliver a defense equipment package worth nearly 200 million euros to Ukraine. The contents of the package have been planned in cooperation with the Ukrainians, taking into account both Ukraine’s needs and the Finnish Defense Forces’ resource situation. Beyond this, no further details about the package will be disclosed, as the information could also reach the Russians.

According to the Defense Minister, "We are providing exactly the kind of support that helps Ukraine defend itself in the acute situation on the front lines. Our resolve must not weaken—on the contrary, at this moment, support must be further strengthened."

This is easy to agree with. And one can only hope that other Western countries will also do their best to support Ukraine so that Russia, too, learns that it will not achieve its goals through military force but only destroy the future of its own society.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Finland Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty?
Rediscovered Relics: The Story Behind Finland's WWII Weapon Caches
A factory of five billion mosquitoes

Criminals in the Holy Land, El Salvador, and Ukraine

Israel has agreed to release 200 Palestinian criminals for every four of its citizens who were taken hostage in October 2023. Among the recently released Palestinian prisoners were 120 individuals who had been sentenced to life imprisonment.

It remains to be seen whether these individuals will return to criminal activities after their release. And if they do, how many Israeli lives it will cost.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has arranged for the deportation of criminals who are in the country illegally—regardless of their nationality—to El Salvador. There, the country is governed by a Palestinian-descended president, Nayib Bukele, who has used tough measures to pacify a nation that was once a playground for violent criminal organizations.

In this case, it remains to be seen how Bukele’s administration will respond if the criminals sent by the U.S. start causing trouble in their new home country. Or will it happen that the newcomers, aware of the Salvadoran government’s strict policies, stay as quiet as—according to a Finnish saying—a "pee in a sock." 

In addition to these two cases, I noticed that Israel's leadership plans to deliver weapons captured as war spoils from Hezbollah to the Ukrainians. These include Kornet anti-tank weapons, which are considered highly effective.

If and when this is the case, I won’t speculate on what they will be used for. Instead, I’ll simply note that criminal Russian invaders will get a hefty taste of their own medicine. And I’m not sorry about it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?
Questions to the Winners of the Gaza War
The Responsibility for Their People's Future Now Lies with Palestinian Leaders

Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

According to a report by Finnish military intelligence, Russia is set to triple the number of its troops stationed near Finland’s borders after the war in Ukraine ends. It is doing so because Putin’s military prioritizes its northwestern direction – essentially the area near Finland – highly in its strategic considerations.

The military intelligence assessment suggests that the number of Russian troops in the region will increase from around 30,000 combatants to an estimated 80,000 soldiers. At the same time, Russia’s behavior is “likely to become increasingly unpredictable” as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has severed Russia’s ties with the global economy.

As a result of all this, the border region between Finland and Russia will become “tense.” Naturally, this poses a significant challenge – and risk – to Finnish society as a whole and its independence.

For this reason, it is good that Finland’s Defense Forces have been working to integrate into NATO as quickly as possible, enabling Finland to rely on NATO’s support when necessary and to fully utilize its resources. It would also be beneficial if this were understood in Russia so that they would refrain from any aggression along their northwestern border.

This would also be in Russia’s own interest, as it is clear that its army would face significant challenges in an attack on Finland, especially given the difficulties it has already faced in Ukraine. Finland’s military is far better equipped than Ukraine’s, the size of its reserves is exceptionally high due to compulsory military service, the Finnish people’s will to defend their country is the highest in the world, and all of this is backed by the United States-led world’s strongest military alliance.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability