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Showing posts with label refinery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refinery. Show all posts

29 September 2025

Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. According to the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, there are no prohibited areas.

So now is a good time to guess where Ukraine will strike first. Could the target even be the Kremlin in Moscow? Or some distant, particularly significant arms factory or oil refinery? Or perhaps St. Petersburg — the former capital of the Russian tsars — which is actually quite close to Finland?

If I had to bet, I’d put my money on a fairly close target: namely the Crimean Bridge, the destruction of which would have major strategic significance in the ongoing war.

I don’t have any inside information, so after writing this I’ll be waiting eagerly for tomorrow’s news from Ukraine. Hopefully it will be good.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

29 August 2025

Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

According to media reports, Ukrainians have developed a cruise missile, "Flamingo", with a warhead weighing as much as one thousand kilograms and the capability to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. If the information is correct, this weapon could destroy key parts of Russia’s arms industry and/or critical facilities that bring money to the war chest, such as oil refineries.

Reports claim that these missiles are already in production, with one being manufactured per day. That is not enough to work wonders yet, but within a couple of months, according to Ukrainians, they will be able to produce dozens per week.

Ukraine has also had time to test these missiles in practice, though no details about the results have been released. However, it is clear that the most important question in this regard concerns how effectively Russian air defense can defend potential targets—meaning whether it can shoot the missiles down as they travel through Russian airspace toward their objectives.

Still, one can hope that at least some of the missiles will get through and significantly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the weaponry it is constantly losing in Ukraine. In that way, the frontline situation could finally shift clearly in Ukraine’s favor.

* * *

In addition to Ukraine’s new missile, Russia faces another problem: the continuous decline in volunteers willing to go fight in Ukraine.

As a result, Vladimir Putin’s regime has apparently resorted to illegal methods to obtain soldiers to fight on its behalf. One example is 18-year-old Said Murtazaliev, who lived in southern Russia and dreamed of becoming a doctor.

In January 2025, before his final year of high school, he traveled to Moscow to spend a relaxing winter holiday. Instead, Murtazaliev disappeared without his family being able to reach him.

A few days later, however, his mother received a call from the police. During the call, a young woman told her that the boy had been detained in Moscow for some kind of minor fraud.

According to the police, the boy had signed a contract with the army and left to fight in Ukraine. Later, Said told his mother that he had been subjected to brutal torture by police in Moscow, and that he was released only after agreeing to go to Ukraine.

* * *

This and many other similar cases show that Putin’s regime has run out of legal means to get men to die in Ukraine. For this reason, he has intensified the conscription of young men into military service.

To that end, an electronic draft system has been developed. A summons sent through it is valid regardless of whether the conscript has seen it. According to Russian law, however, conscripts may not be sent to fight in Ukraine, since the country is not officially at war there, but only conducting a “special military operation.”

For this reason, many conscripts also fall victim to the same kind of violent coercion in recruitment as that experienced by Said Murtazaliev. To escape it, they are forced to sign a contract agreeing to go to Ukraine.

All in all, it is clear that actions like those described above are gradually leading to growing dissatisfaction with Putin and his regime. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will ultimately lead to an uprising and for Moscow’s current ruler to share the fate of Tsar Nicholas II. In my opinion, that would be more than desirable. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?