Eight oil-producing countries have decided to increase their oil production by a total of 547,000 barrels per day. This amount is a significant addition to the market and is expected to lower the price Russia receives for its own oil.
If and when this happens, the change will have a crucial impact on the combat capability of Vladimir Putin’s army in Ukraine. This alone may influence the outcome of the war, but if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes the 100% tariffs he has threatened on countries that mediate Russian oil, the Russian dictator will face an extremely difficult situation as export revenues collapse.
Therefore, it is likely that in the near future, Putin will seek both a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front lines and a way to maintain his war chest. And of course, he cannot ignore the need to look after the standard of living of nearly 150 million Russians, since its collapse would increase the risk of revolution.
It remains to be seen whether significant changes will occur in the war between Russia and Ukraine during the current year, or whether its resolution will shift to next year or even further into the future. What is clear at this point is that the democratic world cannot accept a Russian victory in the war; it must end in a just peace—one that does not embolden Putin, or Moscow’s future rulers, to continue power politics against neighboring countries.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Growing Sino-Russian Threat to the West
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
Ukraine Risks Losing Western Trust by Muzzling Corruption Watchdog
The war would end if Mr. Trump could pressure China to stop it's support to Russia. Unfortunately, seems that is not going to happen.
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