Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine is becoming ever more visible in Russia. Fresh examples of this include the derailment of two trains in the Leningrad region and a drone strike on the Primorsk (Koivisto) oil terminal, which has left Russian oil exports from this port still suspended.

According to a social media account called The War Action, during the past August Ukraine struck 22 oil- and gas-related facilities, 12 railway infrastructure targets, six defense industry companies, three ports and warehouses, and two airports. As a result, this month ten Russian regions have faced such severe fuel shortages that some independent gas stations shut down entirely—and where operations continue, gasoline prices have risen.

At the same time, the balance of power on the battlefield has shifted. For instance, near Dobropillia, Ukrainian armed forces units have advanced west of Volodymyrivka. Several Russian detachments remain encircled near Kucheriv Yar—and even the reinforcements sent to assist them are themselves facing encirclement.

If these developments continue, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s dictator will begin to weaken. His situation is made no easier by the fact that Donald Trump has called on all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia, to impose tougher sanctions against it, and to levy 50–100 percent import tariffs on China.

As a carrot, Trump has offered that if all his demands are met, the United States will also be ready to impose major sanctions against Russia—thereby forcing Vladimir Putin to end his special operation, or at least compelling the Russian people to rid themselves of their dictator.

Putin’s difficult situation is also evident from the fact that even Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko has begun to distance himself from his regime. This was seen, for example, when Belarusian authorities warned the Poles about drones that had recently crossed the border through Belarusian airspace.

Or what do you think, my dear reader? Could all this be a sign that Vladimir Vladimirovich’s countdown has now begun? Or am I just dreaming?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

Donald Trump’s Meeting With Vladimir Putin: The Advice He Needs

The presidents of the USA and Russia, Donald Trump and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, will meet on Friday in Alaska. Initially, it was said that the meeting would seek a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, but later the U.S. president’s office announced that it was merely about Trump’s desire to listen to Putin.

In reality, no one can know what will happen in Alaska. In Europe, there are fears that Trump might agree to support Putin in annexing part of Ukraine to Russia. That is, of course, one possibility, but not necessarily what will happen in Alaska—unless Trump is, in one way or another, in Putin’s pocket.

Assuming what I just wrote isn’t the case, it could well be that Trump realizes Putin is merely toying with him and is in fact only trying to weaken U.S. and other Western support for the Ukrainians—thus turning the battlefield situation to Russia’s advantage.

That is why it was unpleasant to learn that, right during the Alaska talks, Russia has achieved success east of the city of Dobropillia, where its forces have managed to advance along a strip over ten kilometers long but quite narrow. The risk is that Putin will succeed in convincing Trump that this breakthrough shows Ukrainian resistance is collapsing.

On the other hand, I think Russia’s narrow attack wedge will remind all Finns familiar with World War II of our own country’s successful motti battles, in which much larger Soviet units were destroyed by encircling them and cutting off their supply and relief. Unfortunately, it may be that Ukraine’s terrain is not as favorable for such a solution as Finland’s was.

After Trump and Putin agreed to meet, European leaders decided to influence the situation. This will take place later today in a telephone conference attended not only by representatives of Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and Poland, but also by the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

It remains to be seen whether this distinguished group will be able to influence Donald Trump, or whether he will simply listen politely and then, in discussions with Putin, do whatever he wants—in the worst case trying to sell Ukraine’s independence cheaply, and then leading the USA out of the community supporting Ukraine.

Even though I am quite certain that Trump will not read this blog, I cannot resist offering him one piece of advice. It goes like this: Vladimir Vladimirovich is a tough and ruthless dictator who, like others of his kind, listens only to someone similar. That is why Trump should not try to appease him, but instead show — without hesitation — his place as the leader of a state far weaker than the United States, and tell him to end the war here and now by promptly moving the “special operation’s” soldiers back behind Ukraine’s eastern border as it stood before 2014.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Border Residents Concerned Over NATO’s Article 5 Interpretation
It’s Time to Teach Putin: The Age of Empire Is Over
When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Oily Trap for Putin

Eight oil-producing countries have decided to increase their oil production by a total of 547,000 barrels per day. This amount is a significant addition to the market and is expected to lower the price Russia receives for its own oil.

If and when this happens, the change will have a crucial impact on the combat capability of Vladimir Putin’s army in Ukraine. This alone may influence the outcome of the war, but if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes the 100% tariffs he has threatened on countries that mediate Russian oil, the Russian dictator will face an extremely difficult situation as export revenues collapse.

Therefore, it is likely that in the near future, Putin will seek both a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front lines and a way to maintain his war chest. And of course, he cannot ignore the need to look after the standard of living of nearly 150 million Russians, since its collapse would increase the risk of revolution.

It remains to be seen whether significant changes will occur in the war between Russia and Ukraine during the current year, or whether its resolution will shift to next year or even further into the future. What is clear at this point is that the democratic world cannot accept a Russian victory in the war; it must end in a just peace—one that does not embolden Putin, or Moscow’s future rulers, to continue power politics against neighboring countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Growing Sino-Russian Threat to the West
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
Ukraine Risks Losing Western Trust by Muzzling Corruption Watchdog

AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is now using a new type of American-German drone, which can operate independently using its own artificial intelligence. If this information is accurate, it marks another significant step forward in the evolution of warfare.

As a consequence, Ukraine’s technological superiority over Russian forces is increasing, shifting the balance—at least to some degree—in favor of the defenders, who have so far been the underdogs. Whether this will be enough to reverse the course of events on the front lines remains to be seen.

Naturally, this news is extremely bad for Russia, and especially for its dictator Vladimir "Little Man" Putin, whose political future is closely tied to success on the battlefield. It certainly doesn't help that Putin’s war chest—namely the National Wealth Fund used to cover the budget deficit—is inevitably running dry, having shrunk from €110 billion at the start of the war to around €30 billion.

For us bystanders, the situation is undeniably fascinating, as the long-standing trench warfare reminiscent of World War I might shift into a more dynamic and mobile conflict as early as next summer. This could ultimately lead to the collapse of the Russian army—and with it, the fall of Putin from his throne.

Previous thought on the same topic:
Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions
Russian Soldier in Finland – A Sign of Crumbling Morale?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

The Price of a Dictator’s Stupidity and Megalomania

What happens when you combine the stupidity and megalomania of a short-statured dictator? Everyone can ponder the answer based on the fact that Russia has recently modernized its military bases, including nuclear missile silos.

To achieve this, it has built several kilometers of underground tunnels, hundreds of barracks, command centers, and storage facilities. In addition, Russian companies linked to the armed forces have stored related documents in public databases.

As a result, Der Spiegel and Danwatch managed to obtain around two million documents, including blueprints of the new bases. In this way, the most closely guarded secrets of Putin's armed forces were exposed to Western defense forces.

This was a major victory for the West and an unfortunate blow to Vladimir Putin. However, from his point of view, the damage can be limited by preventing any related information from reaching the Russian public. That, however, does not undo the damage already done to Putin's armed forces.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
It’s Time to Teach Putin: The Age of Empire Is Over
Fear Lurks in Vladimir Putin's Mind as He Celebrates on the Wrong Date
When the War Comes Home to Moscow

When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Russian tourism authorities have reported that at least 350 flights have been delayed or canceled due to last night's drone attacks by Ukraine. According to them, this has affected around 60,000 passengers, meaning that Putin’s subordinates have now personally experienced what it's like to live under a dictator waging a senseless war.

This is, of course, a good thing, as public support for Putin’s so-called special operation might once again drop a little. However, it’s futile to imagine that the opinions of the Russian people would have any more influence on their president than those of citizens under other global dictators.

That’s why it’s interesting to read that U.S. President Donald Trump has speculated that Putin might be enticed into peace by offering Russia a chance to participate in the next FIFA World Cup. However, such speculation is likely already too late, as the qualification rounds are underway, and Russia can no longer make it to the tournament.

Nevertheless, the idea that major sporting events could be used to pressure Putin into peace is intriguing. The thought is almost delightful—if only it were that easy.

Unfortunately, I have to remain somewhat skeptical here as well. Peace would mean that at least hundreds of thousands of brutalized men would return home from the Ukrainian front, many of whom would undoubtedly struggle to reintegrate into normal civilian life.

As a result, these soldiers could generate tensions within Russian society, which in the worst case could escalate and even lead to questioning Putin’s position. I don’t believe for a second that Putin fails to understand this—nor do I think he would be willing to take such a risk.

The fact is that, for a dictator, it's safer to wage even an eternal war—as long as it doesn’t end in defeat and doesn’t overly affect the daily lives of ordinary Muscovites or St. Petersburg residents. Which, incidentally, Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against Moscow might well begin to do.

And it’s certainly not insignificant that Ukrainian drones might very well spoil the mood of the dictator’s upcoming holiday celebrations. This could happen even if Zelensky’s army voluntarily refrains from sending a single drone to annoy the Russians on Friday, out of respect for the end of World War II.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War

Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?

The Syrian rebels have overthrown the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The country's new leader is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, though he is better known by his Islamist name, Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

Upon taking power, the revolutionary leader has reverted to using his real name, possibly to emphasize that he has not been associated with the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization for years. Interestingly, he has also promised the Syrian people and administration a peaceful transition of power. As a sign of this, public institutions have been ordered to continue operating under the framework of the old regime.

At least Bashar al-Assad’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has remained in the country and offered cooperation with the new authorities. Meanwhile, the former dictator himself has fled Damascus on an aircraft whose signal disappeared shortly after takeoff. Before vanishing, its trajectory pointed north.

This all suggests that, contrary to my initial expectations, Syria’s new government is unlikely to immediately establish a brutal regime akin to Afghanistan’s. Instead, despite its Islamist roots, it appears to be aiming to create a civilized administration—perhaps even a democracy.

However, it is possible that the country will begin a gradual shift toward Islamism once the dust settles. It is also conceivable that the rebels could eventually fall into internal conflict.

This is because the newly empowered Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not the only faction that opposed Assad. Other groups continue to operate within the country, including the ISIS terrorist organization, which still dreams of its own caliphate, and the Kurdish Rojava, which has effectively governed the northeastern region of the country for over a decade.

Let us therefore watch the situation with cautious optimism, fearing the worst but hoping for the best—and hoping that this revolution does not lead to a new wave of mass migration from Syria to Europe.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Futile Civil War in Syria
Hassan Nasrallah Has Been Killed, but Lebanon Is Unlikely to Become the Switzerland of the Middle East Again
Three Islamists Arrested in Finland on Suspicion of Belonging to a Terrorist Group

The Futile Civil War in Syria

The brutal dictator of Syria, Bashar Al-Assad, managed to retain his power during the 2011 uprising in Syria and the ensuing hot phase of the civil war. This was achieved primarily through military support from Russia and the passivity of Western nations.

However, the civil war has not ended, and recent reports suggest it has once again entered an active phase. During this phase, a coalition led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has succeeded in capturing half of the city of Aleppo. Additionally, the rebels have taken control of over 50 villages and towns, despite government forces being supported by Russian fighter jets.

The resumption of hostilities appears to be linked to Hezbollah, a Lebanese group supporting Assad, coming under attack by Israel. Furthermore, Iran, another key supporter of the dictator, has recently been humiliated, which has likely diminished its ability to assist Assad effectively. And the Russian army is stuck in Ukraine

Reading these reports, I found myself pondering which I would prefer to govern Syria: fundamentalist Muslims or a Russian-aligned dictator. And to conclude that both options are equally insane.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Hassan Nasrallah Has Been Killed, but Lebanon Is Unlikely to Become the Switzerland of the Middle East Again
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
Are we going to allow ISIS women to ride on their children?

Vladimir Putin Places His Trust in the Bottom-Feeders of Humanity

Today, I read an absurd news story. According to it, fifteen Finns attended a meeting held in St. Petersburg, Russia, at the end of September, under the name "Peace, Nature, and Cooperation in the Baltic Sea and Arctic Regions."

There, they demanded that the escalation of the war in Ukraine "must be stopped immediately and that Western countries should cease arms deliveries to Ukraine." Additionally, they called for Russia to be allowed to participate in next year's "Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe" summit.

In a declaration crafted at the meeting, they stated that "peace will be achieved through diplomacy, cooperation, cross-border actions, active involvement of the diaspora, and a feminist agenda that emphasizes protection, meaningful participation, and prevention at all stages of conflict." In other words, they were spreading Russia’s dishonest propaganda.

It’s unfortunate that fifteen of the signatories are Finns, including, among others, the chair of the Finnish Communist Party (Liisa Taskinen) as well as two representatives of the Finnish Women for Peace movement (Ulla Klötzer and Lea Launokari).

Neither of these movements has any notable support, and I can’t recall ever hearing of any of the people mentioned above. I also don’t recognize the names of any of the other Finnish attendees, and the list does not include Finland’s most well-known Putin supporter, Johan Bäckman, who recently obtained Russian citizenship – and will hopefully be sent to the Ukrainian front as cannon fodder.

In other words, the gathering consisted of a group of traitors whose foolishness is being exploited by Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin. Perhaps the most telling aspect of this news is what it reveals about the situation of Russia and Putin, as it’s difficult to imagine that anything but desperation would drive the self-made tsar to rely on such bottom-feeders of humanity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Highlights of the BRICS Meeting in Kazan, Russia
Vladimir Putin is Leading Russia into an Economic Ruin
The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin

Highlights of the BRICS Meeting in Kazan, Russia

BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. It is a geopolitical bloc, with governments meeting annually at formal summits to coordinate multilateral policies.

This year's meeting in Kazan, Russia, has brought up some interesting developments, which I would like to present to you, my esteemed reader.

The Portuguese UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, attended a summit hosted by Vladimir Putin, a man who did not participate in the previous BRICS meeting to avoid being arrested under an international arrest warrant. I wonder whether the UN Secretary-General is unaware of the political implications of this or if he knowingly chooses to support the Russian dictator.

In any case, I do not believe his visit enhances the respect for the UN among people in Western countries. However, I am certain his popularity will rise in some other parts of the world.

President Vladimir Putin presented a symbolic BRICS currency proposal. However, the head of Russia's Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, was not in favor of the idea.

I can’t help but wonder how long it will take before Nabiullina's body is found under a window somewhere in Russia. That seems to be the fate of Russians who disagree with Mr. Putin.

Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro declared that “Venezuela is part of this BRICS family. We apply the principles of BRICS with historical conviction. The time has come for a balanced world, which is multipolar and multicentric. BRICS can count on Venezuela and on the full revolutionary strength of our historical project.”

Given the collapse of the Venezuelan currency - the Bolivar - it is clear that anything would be an improvement in terms of stability. On the other hand, Venezuela's inclusion could have a highly negative effect on any new currency. It will be interesting to see if, for example, China would be willing to join a currency shared with Venezuela.

Finally, it is worth noting a prime example of a kind of transparent dishonesty heard at the meeting. It was said by Putin, who, without batting an eye and without acknowledging his own guilt, rambled on that "unfortunately, there are many armed conflicts on our planet, including at Russia's borders. It is truly unfortunate that there is this armed conflict in Ukraine."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams
Does China prove the superiority of market economy?
Lessons from Venezuela

What’s the Issue With Russians?

Almost all Finns nowadays know that recognizing facts is the beginning of wisdom. In Russia, however, there seems to be some confusion about this.

A Finnish afternoon newspaper Iltalehti reported on this in an article where a film director warned that Russia could lose the war it started in Ukraine. According to the director, "we should always start from the premise that we can lose... we can lose if such blunders continue."

This was not about inciting defeatism, which he made clear by stating, "this is not about discouragement. It is not about spreading fear... It is simply a clear understanding of the price that we and our country will have to pay."

The director also wondered, "on TV, we always show Ukrainians who do not want to fight... But now we see that they are fighting well. And they are very motivated. Why are we deceiving ourselves?"

It is well known that in Russia, the "truth" is always what the country’s dictator—whether it be a tsar, the chairman of the politburo, or Putin—sees fit. And this time, the price has been paid by the soldiers sent to the war in Ukraine, especially the approximately half a million people who have lost their lives or health as a result of their country's leader's madness.

From what I have written above, the inevitable question arises as to why this is the case. That is, what flaw in the Russian people or their culture prevents our eastern neighbors from building a society where people could live well. After all, we are talking about the world's richest country in terms of natural resources, with a population that is also reasonably well-educated.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Russian games
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

Finns want a border law

According to a recent opinion poll, a clear majority of Finns support a new border law that would better counter Russia's hybrid warfare. The idea was backed by 62 percent of respondents, while only 17 percent opposed it.

This means that of those who expressed an opinion in the poll, 78.5 percent were in favor of enacting the law. And this is a very large majority. In other words, Finns want a new border law.

President Alexander Stubb also supported the law, stating that "according to our intelligence, Russia is capable of moving migrants to our border who are not traditional asylum seekers but people used as weapons and instrumentalized. Over a thousand in a few hours."

Hopefully, this information will sway those Social Democratic MPs who have so far opposed the law change, and perhaps even some representatives of the Greens or the Left Alliance.

Of course, there are no guarantees, but at least I wouldn't want to be the MP who ended up supporting Vladimir Putin's efforts to use masses of people from developing countries as a hybrid weapon by flooding them across our eastern border. And in doing so, helped one of the cruelest dictators of our time to undermine our organized society and its security.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's useful idiots in Finland
Immigration issue
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth

Fear drove Putin, a follower of Josif, to murder Alexei Navalny

The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin killed his only politically significant challenger - Alexei Navalny - far away in Siberia. In doing so, he demonstrated his faithful adherence to the path paved by his role model, Josif Stalin: it's better to eliminate those who threaten the leader's power before they become a real danger - or preferably at the first suspicion in the sick mind of the dictator.

Navalny's murder was, of course, no surprise considering Russia's previous events involving falling out of windows and various poisonings. It will also not be surprising that Putin commissions a report on Navalny's death, which has no connection to the truth, despite claims to the contrary - это правда.

There have been various reactions to Navalny's case, most notably the statement from U.S. President Joe Biden, who bluntly stated, "Russian authorities tell their own story. But make no mistake, Putin is responsible for Navalny's death."

Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on the other hand, stated that "His death in a Russian prison and the fixation and fear of one man only underscores the weakness and rot at the heart of the system that Putin has built." And he hit the nail on the head - Vladimir, like his Josif, is also similar in his neurotic fear, so it is not difficult to predict that he will continue to kill people with an even lighter hand in the future.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin's latest operation will be met with any more than previous ones. That is, whether there will be a lot of critical talk directed at him, but only minimal real actions - and even those only temporarily.

However, it is hopeful that Navalny's murder would at least lead to a military awakening in Western countries and such extensive assistance to Ukraine, victimized by Putin, that Russian forces are forced to withdraw from the country.

Of course, it's difficult to extract much from the empty weapon arsenals of European states that have wasted their military capabilities until defense budgets are rectified. But if even the importance of the matter were understood in the U.S. House of Representatives before Ukrainians are forced to retreat from places other than Avdiivka?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Desperate cry of Russians
Victims of Russian leaders
Should Putin´s regime be overthrown by supporting Russian opposition?

Defiant children and Chinese palace dogs

A person equipped with common sense knows well that one should be cautious when dealing with someone larger and stronger than oneself. Finland operated with good success in this manner after the Second World War, as the Soviet Union and later Russia did not direct a military attack towards our country.

The same logic still applies, but with the difference that now Finland, as part of NATO, is stronger than Russia, which fails to understand its changed position. However, the matter is somewhat insignificant, as Russia's blustering holds no more significance than the tantrums of a defiant child to its father.

This, of course, does not mean that we should not approach our large eastern neighbor with goodwill and avoid unnecessary confrontation. Yet, we should not and must not yield any kind of authority over ourselves to the dictator whose behavior resembles that of a defiant child.

The analogy holds true in the sense that this individual seems as incapable of understanding his own position as a defiant child facing difficulties. In this regard, we received an excellent example from the news this morning, reporting how he lied about his army's actions in Ukraine as smoothly as a defiant child throwing stones at a window with a handful of rocks in hand amidst shattered glass.

Certainly, in world politics, there are figures even more ludicrous than the Russian dictator. One such person holds power in North Korea, resembling a mentally disturbed Chinese palace dog growling and baring its teeth at a wolfhound.

Or what should one think of his threats to thoroughly destroy the United States?

The original thought in Finnish:
Uhmaikäisiä ja kiinanpalatsikoiria

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Desperate cry of Russians
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
Incapable of learning but capable of genocide