Why is Somalia unwilling to meet Finland’s conditions for continuing development cooperation?

Finland suspended its development cooperation with Somalia last November. At that time, Finland’s Minister for Foreign Trade and Development, Ville Tavio (Finns Party), made it a condition that Somalia must begin taking back its citizens who are residing illegally in Finland and/or who have committed crimes. The minister did not specify in more detail what kind of change would be sufficient for cooperation to resume.

According to media reports, however, Tavio has suggested that one condition for development aid would be the return of one hundred Somalis to Somalia, although this has not been officially recorded. Last Monday, the minister reiterated that development aid to Somalia will remain suspended, since the repatriations of Somalis have not progressed as hoped.

Some progress has nevertheless been made, as Somalia had previously refused altogether to accept any of its citizens deported from Finland. Since the suspension of development cooperation, Finland has returned 11 Somali citizens, three of whom went back voluntarily.

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In Somalia, the government has expressed a desire to refuse compliance with Finland’s demand to take back its citizens, showing irritation and describing Finland’s conditions as blackmail. The background is thought to lie in the fact that Somalis do not want to receive back citizens deported from abroad, some of whom have committed crimes.

This year, the Finnish Immigration Service has issued only 128 removal decisions for Somalis, meaning the number of people to be returned is not particularly large. Nevertheless, Somalia has accepted less than ten percent of the citizens who were intended to be sent back.

If the pace does not improve, it means that Finland will not spend the roughly nine million euros earmarked this year for cooperation with Somalia. That money was intended to support the improvement of the status of girls and women in difficult situations in Somalia.

That is why I, at least, cannot help but wonder whether Somali politicians’ reluctance stems more from the goals of the development cooperation itself than from the potential problems caused by Somalis who are to be returned. Hopefully, of course, I am wrong about this, and the Somali government does—in contrast to the suspicion that crossed my mind—have a genuine desire to improve the position of women in the country.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations
Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Somalia
Could Kenyans serve as a model for Somalis and Iraqis?

When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Russian tourism authorities have reported that at least 350 flights have been delayed or canceled due to last night's drone attacks by Ukraine. According to them, this has affected around 60,000 passengers, meaning that Putin’s subordinates have now personally experienced what it's like to live under a dictator waging a senseless war.

This is, of course, a good thing, as public support for Putin’s so-called special operation might once again drop a little. However, it’s futile to imagine that the opinions of the Russian people would have any more influence on their president than those of citizens under other global dictators.

That’s why it’s interesting to read that U.S. President Donald Trump has speculated that Putin might be enticed into peace by offering Russia a chance to participate in the next FIFA World Cup. However, such speculation is likely already too late, as the qualification rounds are underway, and Russia can no longer make it to the tournament.

Nevertheless, the idea that major sporting events could be used to pressure Putin into peace is intriguing. The thought is almost delightful—if only it were that easy.

Unfortunately, I have to remain somewhat skeptical here as well. Peace would mean that at least hundreds of thousands of brutalized men would return home from the Ukrainian front, many of whom would undoubtedly struggle to reintegrate into normal civilian life.

As a result, these soldiers could generate tensions within Russian society, which in the worst case could escalate and even lead to questioning Putin’s position. I don’t believe for a second that Putin fails to understand this—nor do I think he would be willing to take such a risk.

The fact is that, for a dictator, it's safer to wage even an eternal war—as long as it doesn’t end in defeat and doesn’t overly affect the daily lives of ordinary Muscovites or St. Petersburg residents. Which, incidentally, Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against Moscow might well begin to do.

And it’s certainly not insignificant that Ukrainian drones might very well spoil the mood of the dictator’s upcoming holiday celebrations. This could happen even if Zelensky’s army voluntarily refrains from sending a single drone to annoy the Russians on Friday, out of respect for the end of World War II.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War