The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear

At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the army of the old regime led by General Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island of Taiwan. The communists led by the victor, Mao Zedong, did not pursue them, and thus a new poor island state came into being.

At first, Taiwan was unequivocally a developing country, into which large amounts of development aid still flowed in the 1960s. At the same time, it represented the whole of China in the United Nations — and even held a seat on the Security Council — until 1971, when the Taiwanese were expelled from the entire organization and Mao’s communist government took their place.

Over time, Taiwan transitioned to democracy and adopted a capitalist economic model. As a result, the country has become a small economic giant with a significant position in the electronics and engineering industries as well as in petrochemical products — and in semiconductor components it even holds a leading position worldwide.

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At the same time, with the support of the United States, the Taiwanese have armed themselves to the teeth. The reason for this is the threat posed by China, which continues to covet the island and which appears to be a more significant issue for U.S. President Donald Trump than the war in Ukraine.

For this reason, it was noteworthy that Member of the European Parliament and general Pekka Toveri predicted on social media that China would attack the island state in the near future. As a sign of this, he points to extensive purges carried out within China’s military leadership.

If Toveri is right, we will witness a clash between the two greatest military and economic powers of our time, in which the United States will side with Taiwan in a fight against Xi’s army. One can of course hope that this will not happen.

If it does, however, it is to be hoped that the confrontation would avoid the use of nuclear weapons and be limited to conventional warfare. This would certainly be the case at first — but would both sides refrain from nuclear weapons even if one of them were facing defeat?

For this reason, the Taiwan question is extremely important. So far, nuclear weapons have been used against people only at the end of the Second World War, but we do not know whether either Xi Jinping or Donald Trump would be willing to resort to them — if defeat were looming — in order to avoid losing face.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Taiwanin kysymys uuteen vaiheeseen?

Why is Somalia unwilling to meet Finland’s conditions for continuing development cooperation?

Finland suspended its development cooperation with Somalia last November. At that time, Finland’s Minister for Foreign Trade and Development, Ville Tavio (Finns Party), made it a condition that Somalia must begin taking back its citizens who are residing illegally in Finland and/or who have committed crimes. The minister did not specify in more detail what kind of change would be sufficient for cooperation to resume.

According to media reports, however, Tavio has suggested that one condition for development aid would be the return of one hundred Somalis to Somalia, although this has not been officially recorded. Last Monday, the minister reiterated that development aid to Somalia will remain suspended, since the repatriations of Somalis have not progressed as hoped.

Some progress has nevertheless been made, as Somalia had previously refused altogether to accept any of its citizens deported from Finland. Since the suspension of development cooperation, Finland has returned 11 Somali citizens, three of whom went back voluntarily.

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In Somalia, the government has expressed a desire to refuse compliance with Finland’s demand to take back its citizens, showing irritation and describing Finland’s conditions as blackmail. The background is thought to lie in the fact that Somalis do not want to receive back citizens deported from abroad, some of whom have committed crimes.

This year, the Finnish Immigration Service has issued only 128 removal decisions for Somalis, meaning the number of people to be returned is not particularly large. Nevertheless, Somalia has accepted less than ten percent of the citizens who were intended to be sent back.

If the pace does not improve, it means that Finland will not spend the roughly nine million euros earmarked this year for cooperation with Somalia. That money was intended to support the improvement of the status of girls and women in difficult situations in Somalia.

That is why I, at least, cannot help but wonder whether Somali politicians’ reluctance stems more from the goals of the development cooperation itself than from the potential problems caused by Somalis who are to be returned. Hopefully, of course, I am wrong about this, and the Somali government does—in contrast to the suspicion that crossed my mind—have a genuine desire to improve the position of women in the country.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations
Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Somalia
Could Kenyans serve as a model for Somalis and Iraqis?

Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?

The leftist government of Colombia decided not to accept undocumented immigrants deported by the United States. As a result, President Donald Trump threatened the country with tariff increases: first to 25 percent and later to 50 percent.

This strategy worked, and Colombia's President Gustavo Petro reversed his decision, agreeing to accept its citizens. It remains to be seen whether any other country will refuse to take back its citizens if the U.S. deports them.

At the moment, however, it seems clear that Trump will not back down on this issue. The scope of the challenge is enormous, as millions or even tens of millions of people currently live and work in the U.S. doing low-wage jobs after arriving from developing countries in search of a higher standard of living.

This means that many individuals and businesses depend on undocumented labor. The big question, therefore, is how this labor will be replaced—if it is even possible. And if it is not, what will follow?

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Finland also has a significant number of immigrants. Among them, those who have primarily arrived as refugees from North Africa and the Middle East have both struggled with employment and committed a disproportionately high number of crimes. In contrast, e.g. Ukrainians, Russians, Indians, Chinese, and Vietnamese are considered desirable and legal labor.

This is likely one reason why Finland is tightening the criteria for humanitarian immigration and aiming to remove undocumented individuals as well as foreign nationals who have committed crimes. As a small country, Finland does not have access to Trump’s “tariff weapon,” but by cutting development aid to uncooperative countries, it hopes to achieve the same result.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this “development aid weapon” will be as effective as Trump’s “tariff weapon.” Or will Finland have to develop additional measures before it can rid itself of unwanted individuals from developing countries?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Somalia

Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Somalia

Finland is suspending its development cooperation with Somalia. The decision follows the Finnish government’s policy that development aid will only be provided to countries that accept the return of their nationals whose asylum applications have been deemed unfounded. Somalia has not fulfilled this requirement.

According to Finland's Minister for Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Ville Tavio (Finns Party), who announced the decision, “Suspension means that no new funding decisions related to the country program will be made until there is concrete progress in return cooperation with Somalia. I believe it wouldn’t take very long if sufficient will exists.”

He further stated, “Now we are suspending funding for the country program and hope it can resume with minimal disruption. In other words, we hope to move forward through cooperation.” This indicates that Finland views development cooperation with Somalia positively but expects reciprocity on migration issues.

The ball is now in the Somali government’s court, which has two options. The first is to accept both Finland’s development aid and the return of Somali nationals being repatriated from Finland for various reasons. The second option is to refuse to accept deportees and try to manage without Finnish development aid.

It remains to be seen which option Somalia will choose. If the latter, Finland and Finnish taxpayers will save nearly ten million euros annually. If the former, Finland will achieve the removal of illegal immigrants and continue to support Somalia in building a more functional society.

From Finland’s perspective, the first option also has the benefit of potentially serving as a model for development cooperation with other countries that send large numbers of migrants to the EU. This, in turn, could help curb the influx of illegal immigration into Finnish society from elsewhere.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Minister of Finance Believes Not All Cultures Are Equally Good
The attractiveness of Finland to welfare-seeking economic migrants reduces
Information for Asylum Seekers in Finland

Responsible Development Aid and New Priorities: Finland's Development Cooperation Reforms

Finland's development cooperation will be reformed during this government term. This means that the private sector will play a larger role in delivering development aid, and limited resources will be more carefully targeted to countries that genuinely seek growth and prosperity. These changes aim to increase the effectiveness of the aid provided.

Finland will also not cooperate with countries that support the current Russian administration. Additionally, development aid will not be provided to countries that refuse to accept their citizens when they lack the necessary conditions to reside in Finland.

At the same time, the amount of development aid will be significantly reduced and focused on the rights of women and girls, as several studies have shown that countries are more stable and prosperous when there are fewer restrictions on the rights of girls and women in education and the workforce. Of all the countries in the world, Ukraine will be the largest recipient of Finland's development aid.

In my view, these policies are excellent, although one could always question whether it is wise for a heavily indebted country to take on more debt to give money to others. However, this has been the practice in Finland and will undoubtedly continue in the future.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
New aid package keeps Finland as one of Ukraine's biggest supporters
The Finnish Government is Unanimous on Fixing the Country's Economy
Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult

The Finnish Government is Unanimous on Fixing the Country's Economy

The Finnish economy is in poor condition for many reasons. However, the situation is about to change, as the government formed by the political right has decided to address the issue.

This is despite the fact that the opposition, led by the left, has done everything in its power to sow discord among the government parties. One party has been accused of racism, and another of favoring the wealthy. And so on.

Nevertheless, the relations between the governing parties seem to be working, as evidenced by the fact that a budget meeting planned for two days only took one day. And there is no doubt that the outcome will have economic impacts on the lives of ordinary Finns.

The government's decisions were varied. First of all, changes were made to taxation so that low- and middle-income people will have more of their salary left for personal use than before. On the other hand, spending was directed toward essential expenses, and therefore, significant cuts were made to less essential items, such as development aid.

Despite these decisions, Finland's economy will not turn around overnight. However, over time, especially the structurally important budget changes, such as better support for business innovation, will take effect and lift Finland's economy out of its current decline.

It is also certain that the political green-left will not stop offering socialist solutions. And if they come to power in the 2027 elections and undo the continuity of the decisions now made, Finland will face an even more challenging future than the present.

That is why it is important for voters to understand this and refrain from disrupting the positive progress that is currently underway. Personally, I believe in that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?
Finns are backing the government making difficult decisions
Change of immigration policy and development cooperation

Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult

Finnish Minister of the Interior, Mari Rantanen (PS), announced good news yesterday. According to her, the government intends to extend the residency requirement for obtaining Finnish citizenship from the current five years to eight years, and the calculation of this period will start only after obtaining a residence permit. Additionally, the acceptable period of residence abroad will be shortened from the current standard, and the amount of reception allowance and allowance for asylum seekers will be reduced.

The government also plans to add passing a citizenship test, which will be established, as a requirement for obtaining citizenship. Moreover, asylum will always be intended as temporary and as short as EU legislation allows. And in the future, it will no longer be possible to transition from an asylum seeker to a labor-based immigrant.

Furthermore, the Minister of the Interior emphasized that refugee status or asylum could be denied or revoked in the future if the individual is considered a threat to society, has committed an especially heinous crime, is suspected of or has committed a crime against peace, a war crime, a crime against humanity, or an act contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.

The asylum process is also planned to be expedited through border procedures, during which asylum seekers are not allowed to leave the vicinity of the reception center assigned to them. Additionally, a fast-track procedure is intended to be included in the Aliens Act, under which applicants who receive a negative decision can be deported more quickly than in the regular asylum process. It is intended to be applied to individuals deemed a threat to national security and to those who have submitted repeat applications.

In addition to these changes, a proposal has been prepared at the Ministry of Justice, led by Leena Meri (PS), to amend the Penal Code regarding the criminalization of female genital mutilation and its preparation. This law is significant not only on the basis of human rights but also because it reduces Finland's attractiveness among asylum seekers who intend to mutilate their daughters' genitals, a practice that constitutes a significant portion of economic migrants arriving in Finland.

Overall, the government parties intend to implement exactly the policies that a large portion of their current voters supported in the last parliamentary elections. When combined with the billion-euro cut in development aid funding, voters finally have reason to be satisfied—provided, of course, that the intentions I've outlined above are realized.

Previous thought on the same topic:
The EU's 7.4 billion euro aid package is intellectual dishonesty
The Finnish forest is life-threatening to asylum-seekers
In Germany, immigration policy changes are being planned