Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?

The leftist government of Colombia decided not to accept undocumented immigrants deported by the United States. As a result, President Donald Trump threatened the country with tariff increases: first to 25 percent and later to 50 percent.

This strategy worked, and Colombia's President Gustavo Petro reversed his decision, agreeing to accept its citizens. It remains to be seen whether any other country will refuse to take back its citizens if the U.S. deports them.

At the moment, however, it seems clear that Trump will not back down on this issue. The scope of the challenge is enormous, as millions or even tens of millions of people currently live and work in the U.S. doing low-wage jobs after arriving from developing countries in search of a higher standard of living.

This means that many individuals and businesses depend on undocumented labor. The big question, therefore, is how this labor will be replaced—if it is even possible. And if it is not, what will follow?

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Finland also has a significant number of immigrants. Among them, those who have primarily arrived as refugees from North Africa and the Middle East have both struggled with employment and committed a disproportionately high number of crimes. In contrast, e.g. Ukrainians, Russians, Indians, Chinese, and Vietnamese are considered desirable and legal labor.

This is likely one reason why Finland is tightening the criteria for humanitarian immigration and aiming to remove undocumented individuals as well as foreign nationals who have committed crimes. As a small country, Finland does not have access to Trump’s “tariff weapon,” but by cutting development aid to uncooperative countries, it hopes to achieve the same result.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this “development aid weapon” will be as effective as Trump’s “tariff weapon.” Or will Finland have to develop additional measures before it can rid itself of unwanted individuals from developing countries?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
Finland Suspends Development Cooperation with Somalia

Humanitarian immigration does not provide a solution to Finland's demographic dependency ratio

Finnish people are no longer having enough children for the population to renew itself. Therefore, humanitarian immigration has been justified by the demographic dependency ratio.

This idea works if the incoming population, along with their descendants, performs equally well in the labor market as the native population. However,  individuals coming from developing countries—often illiterate and at least less educated than Finns—are unable to do so.

However, the situation could—at least in principle—be saved by their descendants, who attend the same schools as the native children. Additionally, they are fluent in Finnish, unlike their parents.

Unfortunately, recent data indicates that a large portion of immigrant-background students in Finland are considered weak performers according to the PISA definition. In mathematics, as many as 58 percent of first-generation immigrant-background students and 43 percent of second-generation students are weak performers. Among native students, the percentage of weak mathematics performers was 22 percent.

The literacy rates do not look any better either. A staggering 61 percent of first-generation immigrant-background students and 39 percent of second-generation students have poor literacy skills. This means that, according to OECD definitions, they do not possess sufficient knowledge and skills to participate fully in societal functions, such as further education and the labor market.

Finland's Minister of Education Anders Adlercreutz (Swedish People´s Party) considers these results concerning. There is reason for concern, as a varying number of people from developing countries have been accepted annually since 1990.

From the perspective of the dependency ratio, as mentioned above, it is also problematic that the employment rate of individuals with foreign backgrounds is about 10–15 percentage points lower, and the unemployment rate is approximately 5–10 percentage points higher than that of native Finns. And these figures include not only humanitarian immigrants but also foreign workers, among whom a significantly larger proportion is likely engaged in the labor market than among humanitarian immigrants.

Based on the above, it appears that humanitarian immigration is not a solution to the demographic dependency ratio in Finnish society. Nor can it be assumed that they will be able to maintain Finland's standard of living at the same level as it has been in recent decades.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sweden is Soon Set to Surpass the One Million Mark for Illiterate People
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
Sweden already in trouble - Finland following