Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia

The European Union has finally awakened to the fact that many Ukrainian men are using its refugee policy as a means of avoiding military service. For this reason, the Commission has proposed—according to the Finnish media—that Ukrainian men of military age should no longer be granted temporary protection in the EU.

One can only hope that the proposal will be processed by the EU's bureaucratic apparatus more quickly than, for example, the proposal to abolish changing the clocks. As a result, Ukraine's manpower shortage could be alleviated at a time when the military situation is otherwise turning so favorable for the Ukrainians that even Russian soldiers reportedly admit they are exhausted and wish to warn Putin of a possible "major catastrophe" ahead.

* * *

The emergence of Russian soldiers speaking out, along with the reactions of Crimeans to Ukrainian successes, suggests that the Moscow government has kept its citizens in an information blackout regarding the problems facing the "special military operation." This brings to mind the year 1940, when Finnish censorship ensured that the public had an overly optimistic view of the situation in the Winter War, and as a result, people experienced the outcome of the war as even more unjust than it actually was.

The same problem now confronts Vladimir Putin and his administration. It is genuinely difficult for them to explain to their subjects why the Ukrainians are capable of destroying Russian infrastructure to such an extent that ordinary people no longer even have fuel for their cars.

If and when a rebellious spirit continues to spread among Russian soldiers, the government will face an acute crisis that will further undermine the operational capabilities of the country's military, and consequently weaken its military performance even beyond its current state.

* * *

All of this could have a truly dramatic impact on the ability of Putin's administration to function. At the moment, it seems to be protected by little more than the absence of a credible opposition—a factor that also makes Russia's future difficult to predict.

Consequently, the final outcome of Putin's special military operation could be anything from a palace coup to complete anarchy and even the disintegration of the Russian state. Of course, the first of these scenarios is the most likely, but then again, hardly anyone at the beginning of 1917 predicted that the Bolsheviks would overthrow and murder the Russian Tsar and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?

As my esteemed readers know, yesterday the United States and Israel struck Iran, killing a large number of the country’s leaders, beginning with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran, for its part, has launched its own missiles at least toward the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain, as well as, of course, Israel. In addition, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranians have reacted to the events—at least according to Iranians living in Finland—by celebrating in the streets. Women symbolically with their hair uncovered, and at least some shouting the name of Reza Pahlavi, the current head of the country’s former monarchical dynasty.

On the other hand, social media also contains video material of demonstrations supporting the Iranian government. Based on what I have seen, the crowds at these demonstrations appear to be quite large.

* * *

It remains to be seen, then, how the situation in Iran will develop from here. In this respect, the absolutely central factor is the Iranian army: will it remain loyal to the Islamist regime, or will it shift to the side of those demanding change? Or, as I could well imagine, will it split into two camps that begin to wage a civil war against each other?

In any case, it is clear that neither the United States nor Israel will send their ground forces into Iran. For that reason, the country’s future is still entirely open, and it would not be surprising if it were to continue its existence in a medieval atmosphere in the future as well.

This alternative becomes more likely the longer the people demanding liberation remain without military force—that is, the longer the country’s leadership is given time to recover from its losses.

* * *

In order to clarify the situation, I asked the Gemini AI for the very latest information. It replied that “there have been reports that parts of Iran’s regular army and local security forces have refused to follow orders or have even joined the side of the protesters. Wikipedia sources and news agencies now mention ‘armed civilians’ and ‘police and military defectors’ as part of the ongoing unrest.”

In addition, according to Gemini, “there have been reports of local clashes in the regions of Kurdistan and Baluchistan. In particular, Kurdish groups (such as PJAK and PDKI) have moved from a state of readiness to actively taking up positions in their own areas.” It also stated that “there have been reports within the country of arson attacks and assaults against symbols of the regime as well as local offices of the IRGC.”

I interpret this to mean that it is not yet possible to draw conclusions about Iran’s future. In any case, however, Iranians now have an opportunity to replace their Islamist theocracy with a more civilized form of government—but the window of time for doing so may not be very long.

* * *

Finally, one observation about the possible effects of a change of power on Finnish society. It may well happen that refugees set out from the country toward Europe.

In this sense, it should be understood that these people would not be ordinary Iranians, as such people would rather return to their homeland if conditions there were to normalize. Instead, those who may set out could be Islamists who have served and/or supported the country’s tyrannical regime.

For this reason, Finland should already now state very clearly that it will not grant asylum to potential Iranian refugees in the event of a change of government, but rather that Iran will be regarded as a safe country for all its citizens—and that this assessment will not be altered by possible reports of representatives of the Islamist regime being held accountable for crimes committed over the course of half a century.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Congratulates an Executioner – Credibility in Free Fall
What’s Next, Iran?
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Vaihtuuko Iranissa valta?

A Professor’s Ten-Point Plan to Fix Europe’s Immigration Policy

Finnish emeritus Professor Vesa Kanniainen has made a list related to immigration policy.

1. The EU member states must abandon the universal social security model throughout Europe.

2. The processing of asylum applications must be moved outside Europe.

3. Financial aid must be stopped for those countries of origin of refugees that refuse to take back their citizens who have not been granted asylum and whose return would therefore not violate the Geneva Convention.

4. Those who have received a negative asylum decision must be required to cooperate and be housed in return centers while waiting for their journey home.

5. Crossing European borders by land, sea, or air must be criminalized when a person does not have a positive asylum decision or valid travel documents.

6. Transport vehicles (such as boats in the Mediterranean) financed by criminal organizations must be confiscated.

7. International cooperation with various countries must be strengthened in order to relocate refugees outside Europe.

8. Visits by those who have been granted asylum to their home country must be prohibited.

9. Family reunifications of asylum seekers must be prohibited or frozen.

10. All foreigners who have received an unconditional or conditional prison sentence must be deported, regardless of how long they have lived in an EU country.

I think the professor’s list is quite good. So good, in fact, that it should be implemented as it is. For that reason, all its points should serve as guiding principles both in the humanitarian decisions of the current European Commission and in Finland’s immigration policy program after 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Two Men Sentenced for Raping Underage Girls
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
Why is Somalia unwilling to meet Finland’s conditions for continuing development cooperation?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
https://professorinajatuksia.blogspot.com/2025/11/vesa-kanniaisen-lista-kannattaisi.html

Two Men Sentenced for Raping Underage Girls

Huge cruise ships operate between Finland and Sweden, serving not only as a means of transportation but also as venues for leisure and entertainment. In other words, they are not just vehicles but massive entertainment centers.

A recent news report states that prison sentences have been handed down as a result of rapes of underage girls that took place on such a ship. Farid Asghar, now 37, was sentenced to 1 year and 2 months in prison for sexual abuse of a child. 

Asghar was also sentenced to 6 years and 6 months in prison for aggravated child rape and aggravated rape committed in a remote parking lot. Altogether, he was sentenced to 7 years and 8 months in prison for sexual offenses. His friend Mujtaba Adam Khan, now 40, was sentenced to 3 years and 7 months in prison.  

As the first names of the convicted indicate, both men are immigrants who came to Finland as humanitarian refugees from developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Why Is the Case of Issam Rafil, Convicted of a Sexual Offense in Finland, Important for Britain?

Finland to Cut Off Taxpayer Money for Immigration

Under the leadership of Finland’s Minister of Finance, Riikka Purra (Finns Party), a budget proposal has been drawn up which would allocate no state-collected tax money next year to the integration of immigrants or the reception of quota refugees. This would be a major change from the current situation, in which a significant share of tax revenue is used precisely for these purposes.

According to Minister Purra, “The integration structures within the public sector, and the ‘private’ integration industry that has grown around them, form one branch of the welfare state that has become enormous. The taxpayer foots the bill. If immigration broadly worked, such structures wouldn’t be needed at all. The government has previously cut integration spending, and in my opinion, it could easily cut more.”

Minister of the Interior Mari Rantanen (Finns Party) commented on the proposed change, stating that “Integration should not be measured by the amount of money spent, and society should have an incentive to push those granted permission straight into work. That would also put an end to all sorts of busywork back home, such as collecting droppings in matchboxes.”

It remains to be seen, however, how the other government parties and Parliament will respond to the Finance Minister’s proposal. It is expected that the ending of support for companies making their living from immigration would face opposition within the government, at least from the Swedish People’s Party, and in Parliament from the entire green-left bloc.

The taxpayer, on the other hand, would welcome it—since once Finland’s chronically deficit-ridden state budget is brought into balance, they might one day have a say over the use of a larger share of their own paycheck.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations
Finnish Branch of Extinction Rebellion Faces Possible Ban
Finland's Stance on NATO Defense Spending Is Linked to the Geopolitical Threat from Russia

Precedent from France Opens EU Pathway for Gaza Palestinians

The French National Asylum Court has issued an important precedent-setting decision, stating that a Palestinian from Gaza must be granted asylum. This is based on the court's opinion that the military operations carried out by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip are now sufficiently severe to be considered a form of persecution.

This sets a legal precedent according to which every Palestinian from Gaza — from infants to Hamas terrorists — is entitled to settle in France. And thereafter, under the Schengen Agreement, they would be able to move freely throughout the EU.

It remains to be seen, however, how many Palestinians will take advantage of this newly opened opportunity and seek to move from Gaza to France — and how many will actually succeed in doing so.

From Israel's perspective, the possibility is extremely tempting, because if moving to France becomes popular, it could be a way to empty the Gaza Strip and repurpose it for use by its own population. On the other hand, this very possibility might limit the willingness of Palestinians to leave the area.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: 
When Demands Become Damage 
Gambling Addiction and the Shadowy Instigator
Western Countries Have Neither a Reason Nor a Need to Accept Asylum Seekers from Syria or Gaza

Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

After Israel attacked Iran few days ago, it didn't take long before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced his willingness to discuss the nuclear deal aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The reason for this is most likely the Jewish state's military superiority compared to Khamenei’s forces.

So far, Western countries have not, at least publicly, responded to the Iranians' announcement, instead choosing to watch from the sidelines as an uneven struggle unfolds, in which Israel demonstrates that it is militarily and technologically vastly more capable than Iran. This is the case even though Iran has managed to launch some missiles into Israel.

For the world at large—and especially for the Iranian people—it would likely be best if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the war and be replaced by a religiously neutral government that would free its citizens from the religious terrorism imposed by the current regime. However, this would require a sufficiently strong force to emerge from within Iran, one capable of channeling public dissatisfaction into a revolution.

Another possibility for regime change could be the use of force by Israel or Western nations. However, I strongly doubt that anyone has the will to undertake such an operation, even though, for example, many Iranian refugees in Finland (an example and another) would undoubtedly wish for it.

It remains to be seen what consequences this ongoing and likely very short-lived war will have for the Iranian regime. Will it manage to maintain its position even in defeat, or will the Iranian people finally gain their freedom?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine
Iran Rejects Direct Nuclear Talks with U.S., Calls Them Pointless
Israel’s Strike on Iran: Ripple Effects for the Middle East, Russia, and Global Stability

Gambling Addiction and the Shadowy Instigator

Probably every one of us knows what a compulsive gambler is like. A person who plays games of chance, losing again and again. Yet they imagine that luck might turn if they just play one more round — or two — and that they might win back the money they've lost.

This came to mind when I read the news that Israel announced the establishment of 22 new settlements in the West Bank. And the country’s defense minister even spoke of turning the area into a Jewish state.

And no, I didn’t mean that Israel, its defense minister, or the Jewish citizens of the country were the compulsive gamblers in this story — rather, the Palestinian Arabs. In 1947, they would have received about half of what is now the territory of Israel. But this was not acceptable to them, and they decided to take a gamble.

That meant launching a war, with the help of surrounding Arab countries, with the aim of driving the Jews into the sea. As part of that effort, Palestinian Arabs were asked to leave their homes, resulting in a large number of Palestinian refugees who have since been barred from returning to Israeli territory.

In the years that followed, several wars broke out between Israel and Arab states. The plight of the Palestinians was not always the direct cause, but in most cases, it was at least a background factor.

Then came the years 1993–2000, during which the Oslo peace process offered the Palestinians the possibility of an independent state comprising the West Bank and Gaza. However, their leader Yasser Arafat refused to sign the agreement that had been reached — because he wanted borders based on the 1947 plan. And so, once again, he and the Palestinians he led decided to roll the dice and continued down the path of various terrorist acts.

As my esteemed readers know, Palestinian terrorists were especially "successful" in their October 2023 attack, which led to Israel taking control of the Gaza Strip. As a result, Israel recently even threatened to evacuate its entire population.

And now, most recently, came the defense minister’s comment about the West Bank: “we will build the Jewish-Israeli state on the ground.” If that plan goes through, the situation would resemble that of a typical compulsive gambler who has already lost all their money, their spouse has left, the job is gone, and even the house is about to be sold off to pay the debts.

So what the Palestinians do in this situation? Well, like all other compulsive gamblers, they naturally decide to play one more round in a game where they, in reality, have virtually no chance of winning — except in the imagination of the compulsive gambler. 

* * *

Incidentally, perhaps the greatest harm to the Palestinians has been done by Western leftists, Greens, and feminists who have, year after year, supported them ever more fervently. Without this constant encouragement, reason might have prevailed even in the mind of a compulsive gambler.

The massive shows of support may have appeared to Palestinian leaders as signs of hope — that although the fronts keep delivering defeat after defeat, perhaps a power shift in the West might someday bring Western countries to their aid.

And maybe, after enduring all that I’ve described above, they might still hit the jackpot — and drive the Jews into the sea. Isn’t that a possibility to believe in, especially when Palestinian flags and banners with clear slogans like “from the river to the sea” wave ever more prominently on Western university campuses, streets, and squares?

In other words, the pro-Palestinian activity in the West resembles a scene from a Western movie, where the shady backroom figure running the saloon’s card table keeps urging the stranger to stay in the rigged game until he’s lost his last dollar.

Unfortunately for the Palestinians, it seems to be too difficult for the Western left, Greens, and feminists to understand this. And there is no noble hero riding into the saloon to shoot the cheating card shark and the filthy-rich saloon owner.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
How Hamas Exploited Aid and Lost the Support of Many Palestinians
What Would It Take to Make Peace in the Holy Land?
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons

Statistics on Sexual Crimes Committed by Immigrants in Finland

Europe's irrational human rights policy has led to a sharp increase in certain crimes. Therefore, it was interesting to note that a statistic related to sexual crimes, covering the year 2023, has been published in Finland.

According to the data, people from Syria have committed sexual crimes per capita 15.5 times more often than the native Finnish population. Almost as eager perpetrators have been Congolese and Afghans, who have been 12.5 and 12.3 times more active in this regard than Finns.

Following this top three are Iraqis (10.5), Somalis (6.4), Iranians (4.7), Swedes (3.3), Estonians (1.5), and Ukrainians (1.4). Next come Finns themselves, and finally, a rare acknowledgment must be given.

I do not often praise Russians, but in the interest of fairness, credit must be given where it is due. And now it is, as Russians have committed sexual crimes 20% less per capita than Finns, with a ratio of 0.8.

The high figure for Swedes is likely influenced by the good connections between Sweden and Finland. These are used not only by native Swedes but also by so-called "new Swedes"—that is, Syrians, Congolese, Afghans, and others residing in Sweden.

It should be noted that this statistic does not take age distribution into account. Since the immigrant population from developing countries is generally younger than the native Finnish population, the actual difference is likely somewhat smaller than the numbers above suggest.

On the other hand, the opposite may be true for Russians if their average age is higher than that of Finns. Unfortunately, I could not find this information, and neither could artificial intelligence, so this question remains open.

All in all, the statistics discussed here indicate that Finnish immigration policy is particularly harmful to women. And that is why it is strange that women are more willing than men to accept asylum seekers from the nationalities that appear at the top of this list.

I find this very odd, and I cannot explain the reason for it. However, it would be interesting to hear what women themselves think about this matter.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Immigrants, Gangs, Decisions, and Self-Interest
Over a Hundred Child Abusers Caught, and the Far-Left's Paavo Arhinmäki Gains Followers in Finland
A Homosexual Rape Underscores the Need for Change in Immigration Policy

Gun Violence in Brussels After Swedish Massacre

As the investigation into Sweden's Tuesday mass murder is still ongoing, something unusual happened in Brussels. There, two masked men opened fire with assault rifles outside a metro station, though no one was injured.

Based on videos and photos taken at the scene, it appears that this time the perpetrators were individuals who had sought refuge in Europe from war and persecution, or at least their descendants—unlike in the Swedish massacre (as I had previously suspected). However, the motive behind their shooting remains unknown.

In any case, photos of the shooters at the metro station have been published, and the public has been asked to help identify them. This may help bring to justice those who endangered people's safety.

It is, of course, a coincidence of sorts that firearm-related incidents occurred on consecutive days in both Sweden and Belgium. However, it should be understood that these incidents stem from the societal developments of recent decades, which have led to rapid demographic changes in Europe (example) and, as a result, the polarization of different population groups.

Recognizing these facts is essential in order to make the right decisions to halt this ongoing trend. Only then can European societies be restored to what the vast majority of their populations desire: safe for their residents and structured to provide the greatest possible well-being for their communities.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Swedish School Shooting with Automatic Weapon Highlights Nation in Crisis
Marxist far-right and bullies
Prediction: Sharia law in force in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France by the year 2044

Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge

News channel CNN reported that Ukrainians are ready to accept refugees from the Kursk region, which has been captured by the Ukrainian army. However, they also allow people to move to areas still under Russian control.

This idea is excellent, as it provides a way to gauge the satisfaction of the people in the Kursk region with Putin's administration. And if it so happens that many people from Kursk decide to move to Ukraine, it would demonstrate to the whole world the incompetence of Putin's administration towards Russia's own citizens. 

At the same time, it would also be a shameful humiliation for the president himself. So let's wait and see how many people from Kursk take advantage of the opportunity offered by Ukraine, and how many believe they will receive better treatment in Russia.

Apart from that, it's great that the Ukrainians have once again managed to make the operational capabilities of the Russian army a laughingstock. After all, this is supposedly a superpower army, according to the Russians themselves.

This is despite the fact that, in recent days, it has managed to be the second most successful military force operating in Russia. Right after the Ukrainians.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience
Stalemate in Ukraine
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

The first casualty of war is the truth - but whose truth?

The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, has called on Israel to immediately cease strikes in the Rafah area. The reason is that they have hit a tent camp in the southern part of Gaza, killing dozens of people according to local (Palestinian?) authorities.

At first glance, the demand seems justified. But after Israel announced that it had carried out strikes on a target used by the terrorist organization Hamas in the area, and its armed forces stated that they were based on precise intelligence knowledge and used precision weapons, Borrell's demand requires further consideration.

If Israel's and its armed forces' claim holds true, the situation changes completely. In this case, the Palestinian fighters would have - once again - used civilians as human shields to succeed in their war. And if this is the case, we must ask what their responsibility is for the civilian casualties caused by the Israeli attack.

And consider what it would mean if we accepted such warfare, where one side is allowed to break all the rules of war, but we condemn the other, which is thus forced to act in a way that results in civilian casualties. Or giving an advantage to the one who wages war without caring about even its own civilian casualties.

Therefore, I believe that Borrell should have kept his mouth shut thus far. Or alternatively, he should have also called on Hamas to stop fighting from behind civilians and demanded the international court to condemn its actions.

In reality, no outsider knows what the truth is in this case. Nevertheless, we can certainly consider which side's information has proven to be more often correct. And which one has has been feeding lies.

However, in this matter too, the old saying applies, that the first casualty of war is the truth. Perhaps also in this case. But whose truth?

PS 21.39 Finnish time: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has admitted that the attack mentioned in my writing was a 'tragic mistake'. Thus, it seems that this time the truth did not get trampled by the war after all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Norway and Ireland are awarding the terrorists a prize
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
During the Eurovision song spectacle, the incompetence of EU officials was revealed

Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult

Finnish Minister of the Interior, Mari Rantanen (PS), announced good news yesterday. According to her, the government intends to extend the residency requirement for obtaining Finnish citizenship from the current five years to eight years, and the calculation of this period will start only after obtaining a residence permit. Additionally, the acceptable period of residence abroad will be shortened from the current standard, and the amount of reception allowance and allowance for asylum seekers will be reduced.

The government also plans to add passing a citizenship test, which will be established, as a requirement for obtaining citizenship. Moreover, asylum will always be intended as temporary and as short as EU legislation allows. And in the future, it will no longer be possible to transition from an asylum seeker to a labor-based immigrant.

Furthermore, the Minister of the Interior emphasized that refugee status or asylum could be denied or revoked in the future if the individual is considered a threat to society, has committed an especially heinous crime, is suspected of or has committed a crime against peace, a war crime, a crime against humanity, or an act contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.

The asylum process is also planned to be expedited through border procedures, during which asylum seekers are not allowed to leave the vicinity of the reception center assigned to them. Additionally, a fast-track procedure is intended to be included in the Aliens Act, under which applicants who receive a negative decision can be deported more quickly than in the regular asylum process. It is intended to be applied to individuals deemed a threat to national security and to those who have submitted repeat applications.

In addition to these changes, a proposal has been prepared at the Ministry of Justice, led by Leena Meri (PS), to amend the Penal Code regarding the criminalization of female genital mutilation and its preparation. This law is significant not only on the basis of human rights but also because it reduces Finland's attractiveness among asylum seekers who intend to mutilate their daughters' genitals, a practice that constitutes a significant portion of economic migrants arriving in Finland.

Overall, the government parties intend to implement exactly the policies that a large portion of their current voters supported in the last parliamentary elections. When combined with the billion-euro cut in development aid funding, voters finally have reason to be satisfied—provided, of course, that the intentions I've outlined above are realized.

Previous thought on the same topic:
The EU's 7.4 billion euro aid package is intellectual dishonesty
The Finnish forest is life-threatening to asylum-seekers
In Germany, immigration policy changes are being planned

The EU's 7.4 billion euro aid package is intellectual dishonesty

Intellectual dishonesty, according to Wikipedia, is dishonesty in thought or communication. This includes advocating for a viewpoint that one knows to be false or misleading, or advocating for something whose veracity one has not bothered to ascertain, or omitting relevant facts that one knows to be essential.

According to the same source, rhetoric is intellectual dishonesty when it is used to reinforce one's own agenda or important beliefs despite evidence to the contrary. This comes to mind repeatedly when I read news related to humanitarian immigration.

Today, it happened when I came across a headline stating, "EU will soon pay Egypt to contain the migration flood – concern over two borders." These borders are the borders with Sudan and Libya, through which people travel through Egypt towards Europe.

Behind this are the human rights treaties signed by European countries, according to which all people in the world have the right to seek asylum if they manage to reach the border. If and when this happens, asylum must be granted whenever there is no evidence of its undesirability.

And that's not all, because after granting asylum, the receiving country must provide various services to the arrivals, from maintenance to healthcare. Instead, they are not obligated to undertake specific duties themselves, such as financing their own lives through work or adopting the language and culture of the receiving country.

In other words, through the international agreements they have signed and their practical measures towards asylum seekers, EU countries have done everything they can to make themselves as attractive as possible to developing country migrants seeking a better standard of living. And at the same time, they intellectually dishonestly spend money to ensure that these people could not present their asylum applications.

Otherwise, this wouldn't matter much, but bribery of transit countries to keep borders closed is costly (in Egypt's case, €7.4 billion by the end of 2027), there are still plenty of arrivals despite the bribery, and they cause exorbitant costs in their destination countries. And most importantly, the intellectually dishonest Union could change its immigration policy by its own decision, so that it would not attract economically motivated migrants who are unable to adapt to society.

Key points here could be 1) transferring the burden of proving the need for asylum to the applicant, 2) limiting positive decisions to those who have personally experienced persecution (and not, for example, due to general chaos in the country of origin), and 3) making maintenance contingent on work, learning the language and culture of the receiving country, and giving up harmful aspects of previous lifestyles. Additionally, it should be ensured that applicants with rejected decisions are either returned to their home country or isolated from the receiving society in other ways.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Strong statement or intellectual dishonesty in COP27?
Most useless organisations of our time
Should forbidden questions be answered or not?

In Germany, immigration policy changes are being planned

Angela Merkel's Germany acted as the driving force in 2015 in a process in which approximately 1.3 million people from developing countries were admitted to the EU's territory. As a result of this event, the internal security situation in Germany and many EU countries deteriorated significantly.

As a consequence of this, and with the resurgence of mass migration from developing countries, Germany has  measures to curb the ongoing wave of immigration. This involves various well-intentioned actions.

Among the proposed measures are the following: setting an upper limit for immigration, reducing Germany's attractiveness by replacing cash benefits for newcomers with payment cards, distributing asylum seekers evenly to all EU countries, reinstating border controls in Germany, strengthening the control of the EU's external borders, detaining asylum seekers during the processing of their applications, adding new states to the list of safe countries, negotiating return agreements with countries of origin, outsourcing asylum processing to third countries, and increasing the number of quota refugees instead of individual asylum applications.

It remains to be seen to what extent the above-mentioned list will be implemented in Germany. If it is implemented, it is uncertain whether it will have any impact on the desire of people from developing countries to enter the EU for the purpose of enjoying a safer society and higher living standards than in their home countries, or the impact it has on eroding these factors, as seen in Germany, France, and Finland, and particularly in the humanitarian migration powerhouse of Sweden.

The original thought in Finnish:
Saksassa suunnitellaan maahanmuuttopoliittisia muutoksia

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Freudian slip, 9-year-old girl and cultural appropriation
Attitudes towards immigrants are not becoming more positive in Western countries
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic

War in Ukraine affects other countries

The war in Ukraine seems to have taken a new step. That became obvious when the Crimea bridge was damaged so badly that a part of it collapsed, and therefore it also became clear that Zelenskiy´s troops have started to prepare an attack to return back the peninsula occupied by Russians in 2014.

Right now it looks like the Ukrainian plan would be first to cut off the maintenance connections of the Russian army and attack the defender´s forces only thereafter. That sounds like a reasonable plan, but we should not forget the highly imaginative skills of the leaders of the Ukrainian army - and therefore the attack on the bridge could have been conducted "just" to regroup the Russian troops elsewhere and thereafter to strike to weak points of the defense opened by the process.

* * *

At the same time, the number of refugees have appeared to Finland from both Ukraine and Russia. Although one could imagine that the two groups escaping Vladimir Putin´s actions would understand each others well, the immigration officials decided to accommodate the two nationalities separately.  

The decision was probably reasonable, because Ukrainians are mostly women and children, whereas Russians are largely young men trying to escape from military service in Ukraine. Even though there has not been violence between the two nationalities, the decision was made due to fears of Ukrainians. 

In my opinion, making the decision before any real problems appeared was excellent as there is no reason to expose Ukrainians to any unnecessary fears - not even to ones with a very low probability. And after all, situations where men and women are isolated from normal life are prone to sexual harassment even though that would not have anything to do with the ongoing war. 

* * *

Finally, it seems that Finland will obtain a high number of new inhabitants due to the war. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one third of Ukrainians are willing to stay in Finland even after the war. If so, they should be integrated into the working life, which is not expected to be even nearly as difficult as it has been for people who arrived in 2015 and thereafter. 

No numbers are available (to my knowledge) for the willingness of Russian young men to stay permanently in Finland. Anyway, also they would probably be a useful working force, but at the same time their presence would form a risk to the country.

That is because Russia is eager to use Russian minorities as an excuse to put pressure on its neighboring countries - even if they disagree. And definitely, the relatively big share of Russians working in Finland disagree with Putin´s actions in Ukraine: a total of 64 percent of them consider Putin´s "special operation" unjustified, and less than one fifth support it. 

Taken this all together, it seems that Ukraine is strongly dominating the war in Ukraine, but despite that, it affects strongly other countries like Finland via the flow of refugees. When the war at some day ends, it will be very interesting to see, which of those effects will be long lasting.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin is in a political and military impasse
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
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Tractor course for Ukrainians

We are all aware of Ukrainian tractors pulling Russian military equipment. In addition, we have seen many tractor cartoons and drawings ridiculing the Russian army.

We also know that there are millions of Ukrainians - mostly women and children - who have left their home country in order to find a safe place while their army is fighting for their future. About 25 000 of those have come to Finland, my home country. 

Today I was reading a newspaper and put my attention on a story, which reported on Finns teaching Ukrainians to drive tractors. One of the the teachers told that the Ukrainians have shown high willingness to participate in society and work. According to him, they are "top crew". 

It remains to be seen, however, how much the Finnish tractor training adds to the efficacy of Ukrainian tractor forces against Russian tanks. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Demonstration of one´s own stupidity is a sign of western values
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor