Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?

As my esteemed readers know, yesterday the United States and Israel struck Iran, killing a large number of the country’s leaders, beginning with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran, for its part, has launched its own missiles at least toward the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain, as well as, of course, Israel. In addition, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranians have reacted to the events—at least according to Iranians living in Finland—by celebrating in the streets. Women symbolically with their hair uncovered, and at least some shouting the name of Reza Pahlavi, the current head of the country’s former monarchical dynasty.

On the other hand, social media also contains video material of demonstrations supporting the Iranian government. Based on what I have seen, the crowds at these demonstrations appear to be quite large.

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It remains to be seen, then, how the situation in Iran will develop from here. In this respect, the absolutely central factor is the Iranian army: will it remain loyal to the Islamist regime, or will it shift to the side of those demanding change? Or, as I could well imagine, will it split into two camps that begin to wage a civil war against each other?

In any case, it is clear that neither the United States nor Israel will send their ground forces into Iran. For that reason, the country’s future is still entirely open, and it would not be surprising if it were to continue its existence in a medieval atmosphere in the future as well.

This alternative becomes more likely the longer the people demanding liberation remain without military force—that is, the longer the country’s leadership is given time to recover from its losses.

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In order to clarify the situation, I asked the Gemini AI for the very latest information. It replied that “there have been reports that parts of Iran’s regular army and local security forces have refused to follow orders or have even joined the side of the protesters. Wikipedia sources and news agencies now mention ‘armed civilians’ and ‘police and military defectors’ as part of the ongoing unrest.”

In addition, according to Gemini, “there have been reports of local clashes in the regions of Kurdistan and Baluchistan. In particular, Kurdish groups (such as PJAK and PDKI) have moved from a state of readiness to actively taking up positions in their own areas.” It also stated that “there have been reports within the country of arson attacks and assaults against symbols of the regime as well as local offices of the IRGC.”

I interpret this to mean that it is not yet possible to draw conclusions about Iran’s future. In any case, however, Iranians now have an opportunity to replace their Islamist theocracy with a more civilized form of government—but the window of time for doing so may not be very long.

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Finally, one observation about the possible effects of a change of power on Finnish society. It may well happen that refugees set out from the country toward Europe.

In this sense, it should be understood that these people would not be ordinary Iranians, as such people would rather return to their homeland if conditions there were to normalize. Instead, those who may set out could be Islamists who have served and/or supported the country’s tyrannical regime.

For this reason, Finland should already now state very clearly that it will not grant asylum to potential Iranian refugees in the event of a change of government, but rather that Iran will be regarded as a safe country for all its citizens—and that this assessment will not be altered by possible reports of representatives of the Islamist regime being held accountable for crimes committed over the course of half a century.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Congratulates an Executioner – Credibility in Free Fall
What’s Next, Iran?
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Vaihtuuko Iranissa valta?

AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is now using a new type of American-German drone, which can operate independently using its own artificial intelligence. If this information is accurate, it marks another significant step forward in the evolution of warfare.

As a consequence, Ukraine’s technological superiority over Russian forces is increasing, shifting the balance—at least to some degree—in favor of the defenders, who have so far been the underdogs. Whether this will be enough to reverse the course of events on the front lines remains to be seen.

Naturally, this news is extremely bad for Russia, and especially for its dictator Vladimir "Little Man" Putin, whose political future is closely tied to success on the battlefield. It certainly doesn't help that Putin’s war chest—namely the National Wealth Fund used to cover the budget deficit—is inevitably running dry, having shrunk from €110 billion at the start of the war to around €30 billion.

For us bystanders, the situation is undeniably fascinating, as the long-standing trench warfare reminiscent of World War I might shift into a more dynamic and mobile conflict as early as next summer. This could ultimately lead to the collapse of the Russian army—and with it, the fall of Putin from his throne.

Previous thought on the same topic:
Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions
Russian Soldier in Finland – A Sign of Crumbling Morale?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

Immigration Policy Must Take Artificial Intelligence and Robots into Account

Birth rates have declined rapidly in nearly all industrialized countries. This is said to cause sustainability gaps and labor shortages, which has sparked much discussion in East Asia and Europe, including in Finland.

Prime Minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo (NCP), announced yesterday that his government will implement measures to promote labor-based immigration while simultaneously tightening humanitarian immigration laws to a Nordic level. He also stated, “labor-based immigration is what we need to promote and what we want to promote. We need it.”

Another representative from a major governing party, Jani Mäkelä, chair of the Finns Party’s parliamentary group, also weighed in on the matter. According to him, the forecast’s fulfillment is uncertain since recent increased immigration primarily stems from Ukrainians, whose influx into Finland is unlikely to continue for long.

Despite this, he too noted that “the government is taking the right actions regarding labor-based immigration, tightening the requirements for entry and work eligibility. Those who remain in the country under these conditions are likely to contribute quite positively to the national economy.”

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I can largely agree with these views, but I also want to remind everyone that while the government may be setting our immigration policy on a clearly more sensible path, this approach should hold after the 2027 parliamentary elections as well. I don’t believe the election results will be determined so much by the immigration policy pursued but rather by the general economic policies in place.

For this reason, the government should ensure that Finland and its public finances turn towards growth by early 2026 at the latest, so that this will have a tangible impact on people’s lives before the spring of 2027 when elections are held. Otherwise, we risk a return to power by the left, leading to the dilution of the reforms made now and a shift toward economically and domestically unsustainable immigration policies.

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In this context, we should also note that technology is currently advancing at an exceptionally rapid pace. It is practically certain that robots guided by artificial intelligence will replace an increasing number of workers every day.

For instance, I am fully confident that if I ever end up in a nursing home, I will be cared for there—following Japan’s example—by robots. Their use won’t be limited to elderly care; robots and AI will replace various types of workers during my lifetime.

AI is already being used today, for example, in programming or determining the spatial structure of proteins. I see no fundamental obstacle to AI-driven robots in the future building opera houses or managing the entire agricultural production chain—from grain cultivation to animal slaughter, meat packaging, and delivery to stores.

It’s also virtually certain that AI robots will, at some point, be handing out ski poles by day and serving beer to vacationers at ski resorts by night. I wouldn’t be surprised to one day see a company whose owner selects an AI as its CEO or a research team with independent AI and robotic members—first steps toward this have already been seen.

In other words, the labor market will undergo radical changes within this century. Thus, there’s no need for sudden demographic policy panic reactions, even if it is currently wise to invest somewhat in labor-based immigration to address the acute labor shortage and, of course, to make it feasible for young people to have children if and when they wish to.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end
A caliphate was demanded in Germany
The change in the demographic structure of Helsinki

The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end

Finland's economy has struggled since 2008. This is partly due to the fact that the global crisis at that time was preceded by Nokia's success as a mobile phone manufacturer, which led to an expansion of the public sector in hopes of scoring political points.

Then Nokia's glory days came to an end, and Finland was left with an oversized and expensive public sector relative to its income. However, dismantling it proved nearly impossible for the ruling politicians, as almost the entire population benefited from it.

The current Finnish government has started to address this problem, but the recent rise in interest rates has made the situation more difficult by increasing state expenditures just as public sector spending has been reduced. At the same time, the country's labor unions have opposed all changes, and the private sector hasn't recovered as hoped after the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, according to Finland's Ministry of Finance, there now seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. According to its top official, "price increases have clearly slowed down. Interest rates are on the decline, and the ECB is likely to lower rates two more times this year, which the markets have already priced in. The decline in GDP appears to have genuinely stopped, and there are signs of a revival in the housing market."

The official also praises Finland's "excellent" cost competitiveness, meaning the ability to produce goods and services at competitive prices compared to other countries. Additionally, alongside Nokia and the forest products industry, "new beginnings" have emerged in sectors like clean energy, artificial intelligence, and chip technology.

When you add to all this that the country has a right-wing government, which can be expected to refrain from redistribution policies, it seems that Finland is also emerging from its decade-and-a-half-long economic downturn.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finns are backing the government making difficult decisions
Correct minister, ridiculous facts
The program of the new Finland´s Government is ready, and ministers are being selected