Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?

As my esteemed readers know, yesterday the United States and Israel struck Iran, killing a large number of the country’s leaders, beginning with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran, for its part, has launched its own missiles at least toward the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain, as well as, of course, Israel. In addition, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranians have reacted to the events—at least according to Iranians living in Finland—by celebrating in the streets. Women symbolically with their hair uncovered, and at least some shouting the name of Reza Pahlavi, the current head of the country’s former monarchical dynasty.

On the other hand, social media also contains video material of demonstrations supporting the Iranian government. Based on what I have seen, the crowds at these demonstrations appear to be quite large.

* * *

It remains to be seen, then, how the situation in Iran will develop from here. In this respect, the absolutely central factor is the Iranian army: will it remain loyal to the Islamist regime, or will it shift to the side of those demanding change? Or, as I could well imagine, will it split into two camps that begin to wage a civil war against each other?

In any case, it is clear that neither the United States nor Israel will send their ground forces into Iran. For that reason, the country’s future is still entirely open, and it would not be surprising if it were to continue its existence in a medieval atmosphere in the future as well.

This alternative becomes more likely the longer the people demanding liberation remain without military force—that is, the longer the country’s leadership is given time to recover from its losses.

* * *

In order to clarify the situation, I asked the Gemini AI for the very latest information. It replied that “there have been reports that parts of Iran’s regular army and local security forces have refused to follow orders or have even joined the side of the protesters. Wikipedia sources and news agencies now mention ‘armed civilians’ and ‘police and military defectors’ as part of the ongoing unrest.”

In addition, according to Gemini, “there have been reports of local clashes in the regions of Kurdistan and Baluchistan. In particular, Kurdish groups (such as PJAK and PDKI) have moved from a state of readiness to actively taking up positions in their own areas.” It also stated that “there have been reports within the country of arson attacks and assaults against symbols of the regime as well as local offices of the IRGC.”

I interpret this to mean that it is not yet possible to draw conclusions about Iran’s future. In any case, however, Iranians now have an opportunity to replace their Islamist theocracy with a more civilized form of government—but the window of time for doing so may not be very long.

* * *

Finally, one observation about the possible effects of a change of power on Finnish society. It may well happen that refugees set out from the country toward Europe.

In this sense, it should be understood that these people would not be ordinary Iranians, as such people would rather return to their homeland if conditions there were to normalize. Instead, those who may set out could be Islamists who have served and/or supported the country’s tyrannical regime.

For this reason, Finland should already now state very clearly that it will not grant asylum to potential Iranian refugees in the event of a change of government, but rather that Iran will be regarded as a safe country for all its citizens—and that this assessment will not be altered by possible reports of representatives of the Islamist regime being held accountable for crimes committed over the course of half a century.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Congratulates an Executioner – Credibility in Free Fall
What’s Next, Iran?
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Vaihtuuko Iranissa valta?

Jimmie Åkesson Is Sweden’s Most Widely Accepted Politician

Today I read an interesting piece of information on social media. According to it, Jimmie Åkesson (Sweden Democrats) is the most widely accepted politician in Sweden.

It therefore seems very much as if our western neighbor is beginning to wake up to reality. But the question is whether it is already too late.

This can be examined, for example, in light of the numbers of ethnic backgrounds residing in Sweden that have proven to be problematic.

Information on this is provided, for instance, by Wikipedia, according to which in 2023 Sweden was home to, among others—by country of birth—approximately 200,000 Syrians, just under 150,000 Iraqis, 86,000 Iranians, 68,000 Somalis, 67,000 Afghans, 56,000 Turks, 49,000 Eritreans, 29,000 Lebanese, and 28,000 Pakistanis. And, of course, all of their descendants.

Out of the total population of 10.5 million people, around 7.6 million are ethnically Swedish, and the rest were born in countries other than those mentioned above, the most significant of which are Finland, Poland, the countries of the former Yugoslavia, and India. Of children, only about two thirds are still ethnically Swedish.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Two Men Sentenced for Raping Underage Girls
Is Finnish Broadcasting Company Yle Using Taxpayer Money to Mislead?
The Left Wants to Grill a Swedish Minister Over His Son’s Past – What’s Really Behind It?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Åkesson on hyväksytyin ruotsalaispoliitikko

What’s Next, Iran?

In public discussion, surprisingly little attention has been paid to what would happen if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the ongoing uprising of its own citizens. Would power be taken—at least temporarily—by the son of the late shah, who ruled the country dictatorially, Reza Pahlavi? And if so, would he, as he has promised, organize free elections, allowing Iranians to establish a democratic system of government? Or would he instead follow in his father’s footsteps, becoming an undemocratic but Western-aligned leader?

Or would the country descend into civil war, with various political groups engaging in armed conflict with one another—an outcome determined partly by Iranians themselves, but also by the amount of support the different sides receive from rival great powers? That is, from Trump’s United States and Xi’s China—but hardly from Russia, bogged down in its own “special operation,” or from a Europe that is disarrayed in every respect.

* * *

Of course, it would be wonderful if Iranians were able, in free elections, to choose an enlightened father of the nation under whose leadership a modern constitution would be created and, on that basis, the rest of the legal system reformed as well. At the same time, religion would be defined as a private matter for each individual, as has been done, for example, here under the North Star.

The question, however, is whether this is what all Iranians actually want. Or do they have different aspirations? Or might the great powers—or neighboring countries, for that matter—have their own spoons in the pot, stirring it in such a way as to push Iranians from a religious dystopia into a secular tyranny?

Unless, of course, the current Islamist regime manages after all to retain its position and continues at the helm of the ship of state, using even harsher methods than before to subjugate its citizens. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Mitä seuraavaksi, Iran?

Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

Iranians are protesting—according to Finnish news sources (Yle, Uutissuomalainen)—because of the deterioration of the country’s economy. According to these reports, the background lies in the sanctions imposed on Iran by Western countries, but I would believe that the unrest has also been influenced by the religious leaders’ earlier saber-rattling toward Israel, which ended in humiliation.

The Islamists who lead the country have resorted to harsh measures against the demonstrators, and the situation has therefore escalated. By contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged the interior minister to listen to the protesters’ “legitimate demands.”

* * *

An interesting additional dimension to this situation has been introduced by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the shah who ruled the country before the Islamist regime. For some time now, he has been seeking to stir the Iranian people into revolution. Yesterday he published a message on social media in which he called on “the people of Iran to join in with the nationwide strikes and protests: government employees, workers in the energy and transportation sectors, truck drivers, nurses, teachers and academics, artisans and entrepreneurs, retirees and those who have lost their savings—everyone, unite and join this national movement.”

In addition, he called on “Iranians abroad—from Australia and East Asia to Europe and North America—to redouble your activities within the framework of the ‘Rise Iran’ campaign to amplify the voice of the Iranian people to the media, international institutions, foreign governments, and parliaments.” and declared that “we will win because we are united and we are many.”

As the year changes tonight, I would like, for my part, to express the hope that Iranians will finally succeed in toppling the Islamists from power and move their ancient homeland from medieval totalitarianism toward democracy—and begin a process that, over time, would lead to a weakening of religious fanaticism throughout the Middle East and Central Asia.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Donald J. Trump
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

After Israel attacked Iran few days ago, it didn't take long before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced his willingness to discuss the nuclear deal aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The reason for this is most likely the Jewish state's military superiority compared to Khamenei’s forces.

So far, Western countries have not, at least publicly, responded to the Iranians' announcement, instead choosing to watch from the sidelines as an uneven struggle unfolds, in which Israel demonstrates that it is militarily and technologically vastly more capable than Iran. This is the case even though Iran has managed to launch some missiles into Israel.

For the world at large—and especially for the Iranian people—it would likely be best if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the war and be replaced by a religiously neutral government that would free its citizens from the religious terrorism imposed by the current regime. However, this would require a sufficiently strong force to emerge from within Iran, one capable of channeling public dissatisfaction into a revolution.

Another possibility for regime change could be the use of force by Israel or Western nations. However, I strongly doubt that anyone has the will to undertake such an operation, even though, for example, many Iranian refugees in Finland (an example and another) would undoubtedly wish for it.

It remains to be seen what consequences this ongoing and likely very short-lived war will have for the Iranian regime. Will it manage to maintain its position even in defeat, or will the Iranian people finally gain their freedom?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine
Iran Rejects Direct Nuclear Talks with U.S., Calls Them Pointless
Israel’s Strike on Iran: Ripple Effects for the Middle East, Russia, and Global Stability

An African and an Iranian Immigrant Educated a Woke-Blinded Deputy Mayor

Yesterday, I wrote about how an ethnically Finnish female deputy mayor Piia Elo (Social Democrats) wanted to take an old board game - Star of Africa - away from children in daycare. It didn’t take long before Somali-born school assistant Jama Jama weighed in on the matter.

He stated, “Good people, leave the board games alone. This makes no sense… Leave the board games for children and youth to play. The ‘Star of Africa’ is part of Finnish culture… I play it (‘Star of Africa’) every day with the kids. There is no racism in that game.”

And he’s not the only one. An Iranian living in Finland, Bijan Rezah Jahromi, also commented on social media, writing, “I personally remember when I moved to Finland at the age of 6, we played the ‘Star of Africa’ and other board games as well as ice hockey. That’s how I quickly learned the Finnish language. Let children be children.”

So, it took an African and an Iranian immigrant to tell an ethnically Finnish, woke-blinded deputy mayor that she is utterly lacking in understanding. Unfortunately, I suspect that this particular Social Democrat and self-appointed advocate doesn’t have the insight to recognize even the disregard—if not outright racism—toward Africans and their culture inherent in her own behavior.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Finnish Deputy Mayor Wanted to Ban an Old Board Game from Children
A Finnish police officer is afraid to speak about the problems of immigration
Finnish journalist called for British Prime Minister´s head to be placed on London bridge to dry

Iranian Surge to Finland

The Finnish Wrestling Federation has been seeking a head coach. A total of around 80 applicants expressed interest in the position, of which as many as 50 turned out to be Iranian. This is surprising, even though Iran is among the strongest countries in the world in both wrestling styles.

However, the chairman of the Finnish Wrestling Federation, Pekka Paavola, speculated that not every applicant's motivation is driven by a burning passion for developing Finnish wrestling. Or even for working in wrestling at all.

Instead, he noted, "Iran is certainly known as a country where wrestling is a huge and successful sport, and of course, there are many good coaches as a result. I can't definitively assess their reasons for applying, but perhaps access to the Schengen area is an attraction for some applicants."

This may be hinted at by the fact that some of the Iranian applications were written in Iran's own languages, such as Farsi or Arabic, which naturally gave the recruiters an indication of the applicant's ability to use English as a working language in Finland. Therefore, they are unlikely to secure the position in my northern homeland.

It remains to be seen who will eventually be selected. However, in advance, the current executive director of the Wrestling Federation, Pasi Sarkkinen, can be seen as the frontrunner. Sarkkinen previously served as head coach of Greco-Roman wrestling from 2001 to 2004. During that time, Finland won five senior-level championship medals and its most recent Olympic medal was brought home by Marko Yli-Hannuksela from Athens in 2004.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Immigration-Specific Violent Crime Increases as Humanitarian Immigration Continues
Everyone has the right
The human rights of immigrant women are not important in Finland

Immigration-Specific Violent Crime Increases as Humanitarian Immigration Continues

Finland's new National Police Commissioner, Ilkka Koskimäki, told MTV3 that violent crime in Finland has changed. According to him, "the entire landscape of violent crime in Finland is in a state of transition and is changing. Traditionally, the typical homicide from decades ago was a dispute between alcoholics, but those cases have almost disappeared."

Instead – according to him – "we are now seeing more cases of polysubstance abuse, drugs in significant quantities, disputes among criminals, and new phenomena such as street gangs and honor-related violence. The nature of crime is somehow in transition."

The Police Commissioner also mentioned that "the highest number of serious violent crimes, meaning homicides and attempted homicides, occur... in the Tampere and Vantaa areas." However, he did not know why these particular cities were affected, the first being the center of the second-largest urban area in Finland, and the second essentially a suburban town of Helsinki.

* * *

It remains to be seen how violent crime and its distribution among Finnish cities will evolve in the coming years. However, it is clear that one of the key factors in this matter is the number of poorly integrated humanitarian immigrants in Finnish society.

After all, the growing phenomena mentioned by the Police Commissioner, such as street gang and honor-related violence, are almost exclusively associated with this group. Also, the shift in the drug situation is not unrelated to changes in the Finnish population, as the smuggling and trade of illegal substances have long been dominated by immigrants.

Thus, it remains to be seen how the situation will develop in Finland. In any case, people continue to arrive from countries where integration into Western culture is difficult. During the current year alone, the Finnish Immigration Service has thus far received first residence permit applications from, among others, 1 897 Bangladeshis, 1 445 Pakistanis, 1 120 Nigerians, 1 048 Turks, and 923 Iranians. Additionally, there are far more applications for renewals.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The UK Prime Minister Took a One-Sided Stance on the Country's Protests
The root causes of racist violence
Immigration issue

The human rights of immigrant women are not important in Finland

An Iranian man who settled in Finland reminded that human rights belong to all people. He did this by assaulting his wife three to four times a month for two years.

According to the Finnish media company MTV3, this happened in the following way: he "hit his wife in the face with his hand and beat her with a charging cable and a belt on various parts of her body. Additionally, he kicked the woman and threw her against walls. Besides the assault, the man threatened to throw acid on his wife's face and kill her."

A disagreement over the placement of a carpet on the floor was enough reason for the assault. And with a poker face, the man explained the resulting injuries in the best possible light by acting as an interpreter for his non-language-speaking wife at the doctor's.

The case clearly highlights a problem in Finnish immigration policy. By this, I mean that the violence the Iranian man inflicted on his wife would have ended quickly if immigrants were required to participate in Finnish language and culture education in exchange for social security and other immigration services.

In the case in question, the woman, being proficient in the language, could have visited the doctor alone and reported the true cause of her injuries. Or, if the man had insisted on coming along, she could have spoken about it in his presence.

So, I eagerly await the moment when immigration, women's rights, and human rights activists will start demanding conditional social security for immigrants coming to Finland. Or is it that the violence faced by immigrant women doesn't really matter that much to them after all?

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult Even a brutal murder didn't stir the Swedes The Finnish forest is life-threatening to asylum-seekers