What’s Next, Iran?

In public discussion, surprisingly little attention has been paid to what would happen if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the ongoing uprising of its own citizens. Would power be taken—at least temporarily—by the son of the late shah, who ruled the country dictatorially, Reza Pahlavi? And if so, would he, as he has promised, organize free elections, allowing Iranians to establish a democratic system of government? Or would he instead follow in his father’s footsteps, becoming an undemocratic but Western-aligned leader?

Or would the country descend into civil war, with various political groups engaging in armed conflict with one another—an outcome determined partly by Iranians themselves, but also by the amount of support the different sides receive from rival great powers? That is, from Trump’s United States and Xi’s China—but hardly from Russia, bogged down in its own “special operation,” or from a Europe that is disarrayed in every respect.

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Of course, it would be wonderful if Iranians were able, in free elections, to choose an enlightened father of the nation under whose leadership a modern constitution would be created and, on that basis, the rest of the legal system reformed as well. At the same time, religion would be defined as a private matter for each individual, as has been done, for example, here under the North Star.

The question, however, is whether this is what all Iranians actually want. Or do they have different aspirations? Or might the great powers—or neighboring countries, for that matter—have their own spoons in the pot, stirring it in such a way as to push Iranians from a religious dystopia into a secular tyranny?

Unless, of course, the current Islamist regime manages after all to retain its position and continues at the helm of the ship of state, using even harsher methods than before to subjugate its citizens. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Mitä seuraavaksi, Iran?

Finns Fiercely Defend Their Homeland Because of Their History and Trauma

Finland was occupied by Russia from 1713 to 1721. Already during the war, Russian soldiers and Cossacks looted everything of value they could get their hands on from the local population. 

In addition, officers and soldiers would capture women and children they encountered on the streets, use them for service in their homes, and send them to their estates in Inner Russia. The Cossacks transported women and children to St. Petersburg to be sold at very low prices.

During the occupation, the reign of terror continued. Even though, for example, Northern Ostrobothnia was not occupied, about a quarter of its population perished. 

The single most horrific massacre took place on the island of Hailuoto on September 29, 1714, when 200 Cossacks killed around 800 people in one night using axes. This atrocity was driven by direct orders from Tsar Peter the Great himself, who twice commanded the total destruction of Northern Ostrobothnia, turning it into a wasteland where life could not be sustained.

Finns were treated with incredibly brutal methods elsewhere as well. One such method was to torture mothers and fathers in front of their small children — and vice versa. Victims were suspended painfully by the wrists with hands tied behind their backs, left to freeze in snowbanks, scorched with fire, or even roasted in ovens. The aim was to force them to reveal any hidden valuables—and if they did, the victims were usually killed anyway.

A large part of the population was also captured and sent into forced labor in Russia. Over 20,000 people were taken to help build the newly founded city of St. Petersburg, and almost none of them ever returned to Finland. At least five percent of all Finns were taken as slaves — a staggering number, given that Finland’s population in the early 1700s was under 400,000.

Not all of the enslaved ended up in Russia—some were also sold to places like the slave markets in Persia, where fair-skinned Finns were considered exotic. All in all, the destruction wrought by the Russians resulted in at least a quarter of Finnish peasant homes standing abandoned by the end of the war.

I wrote this text for two reasons. First, I wanted to support the Ukrainians’ will to defend their country against Russian brutality and to motivate Europeans to support them in every possible way. Second, I wanted to explain to you—my esteemed international readers—why Finns are more ready than most nations to fight for the independence of their homeland. Especially against the Russians.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience