What’s Next, Iran?

In public discussion, surprisingly little attention has been paid to what would happen if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the ongoing uprising of its own citizens. Would power be taken—at least temporarily—by the son of the late shah, who ruled the country dictatorially, Reza Pahlavi? And if so, would he, as he has promised, organize free elections, allowing Iranians to establish a democratic system of government? Or would he instead follow in his father’s footsteps, becoming an undemocratic but Western-aligned leader?

Or would the country descend into civil war, with various political groups engaging in armed conflict with one another—an outcome determined partly by Iranians themselves, but also by the amount of support the different sides receive from rival great powers? That is, from Trump’s United States and Xi’s China—but hardly from Russia, bogged down in its own “special operation,” or from a Europe that is disarrayed in every respect.

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Of course, it would be wonderful if Iranians were able, in free elections, to choose an enlightened father of the nation under whose leadership a modern constitution would be created and, on that basis, the rest of the legal system reformed as well. At the same time, religion would be defined as a private matter for each individual, as has been done, for example, here under the North Star.

The question, however, is whether this is what all Iranians actually want. Or do they have different aspirations? Or might the great powers—or neighboring countries, for that matter—have their own spoons in the pot, stirring it in such a way as to push Iranians from a religious dystopia into a secular tyranny?

Unless, of course, the current Islamist regime manages after all to retain its position and continues at the helm of the ship of state, using even harsher methods than before to subjugate its citizens. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Mitä seuraavaksi, Iran?

A man was murdered in a prison

A man was found dead in a major prison located in Vantaa close to Helsinki. He was there temporarily in a same cell with four other men, two of whom conducted the crime.

The cell did not have a camera due to the privacy reasons. Therefore there was no video-material available to figure out what actually happened - nor to have allowed prison staff a chance to notice the violence before it was too late. It is however known, that the violence was extremely cruel and lasted for days, and that the victim was finally suffocated to death using a plastic bag.

The life of the dead man lasted only 21 years, but during that time he had conducted several sexual crimes. They included a rape and sexual abuse of a 15 and 14 year old girls, respectively. He was moved temporarily to Vantaa prison because of a trial, where his own case as a victim was processed.  

The 23- and 19-year-old murderers were also serious criminals. They had been sentenced to prison due to their previous trials of murders. 

There are several open questions related to the case. The most mysterious one is why the killed youngster did not report on the violence to the prison staff? He would have had several chances to do so. It is also unclear why the two persons not participating in the murder did not do anything to interfere or to report about it to the staff. 

Also the motivation of the murder remains open, but it is generally known that sexual criminals are poorly accepted by other prisoners. Police is also investigating, whether the personnel of the prison had made mistakes during the violence. 

This kind of case is extremely rare in Finnish prisons. The two previous murders in prisons were conducted in years 2014 and 2001, and the one described above in January 2022.

It is naturally unacceptable that people are not safe in prisons no matter how serious or obnoxious crimes they have conducted. Therefore the case of Vantaa prison is important, and it should be asked why the cell was not equipped with cameras to allow the staff a chance to know about it. 

In my opinion, the "right for privacy" - the outspoken reason for the lack of cameras - in a prison should be questioned seriously. The pivotal question here is, whether this right is more valuable than a human life - even if it was one of a hard criminal? 

I do not think so. But even if that would be accepted, this price should be included in the law. Now it is not. 

In contrast, the constitution law of Finland states that "everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person. No one shall be sentenced to death, tortured or otherwise treated in a manner that violates human dignity... The rights of those who have been deprived of their liberty are protected by law." The 21-year old was not.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A set of immigration-derived sexual crimes in a Finnish town
Rape statistics in Finland and Sweden are breaking prejudices