Israel apparently destroyed virtually the entire Iranian air defense system in an attack about a month ago. At the same time, Iran's military capability proved to be a paper tiger, unable to compete in the same arena as technologically superior Western countries. This fact might have intriguing consequences.
The first of these relates to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has unsettled Tehran after the attack by releasing two video messages urging the Iranian people to rise up against the country’s Islamist regime. This raises the question of whether the regime’s time has come to an end.
This view is supported by the fact that the fall of the government would be an excellent outcome for almost all Iranians, and especially for women. However, the Islamists hold power and with it the means to continue terrorizing their citizens far into the future.
Thus, a revolution would require both unity and courage from Iranians, but it would not be impossible. The West could, of course, assist if necessary, but I fear that the memory of the failed 1980 Operation Eagle Claw strongly discourages interference in Iran’s affairs.
Therefore, I sadly suspect that Iran’s regime will not fall for a long time. And women will continue to long in vain for their human rights.
The second consequence of Israel's attack concerns Russia. Iran's air defense has been based on Russian systems, which proved ineffective against Western equipment. This might influence Putin’s policy toward the West or the war in Ukraine.
In other words, the attack will undoubtedly increase the caution of Putin's regime in relation to the West. This, in turn, reduces the risk that - as a result of Western arms systems being supplied to Ukraine - Russia would escalate by deploying weapons of mass destruction.
Unfortunately, this dynamic is unlikely to work in both directions. Despite recognizing the inadequacy of Russian weaponry, the West is unlikely to decide to end the war by providing Ukraine with the kind of military power that would neutralize Russian missile and air strikes. For this reason, the bloodshed in Ukraine will continue, at least until the new U.S. President Donald Trump begins advancing his promised peace deal.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
It Is Time for Vladimir Putin to Acknowledge the Facts and Do Dmitry Medvedev a Favor
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
A Muslim Woman's Lack of Solidarity with Iranian Women
Everything that makes Iran's government weaker is good news for Israel and the West generally. Iran has been providing for Hamas, Hizbollah and other terrorist organisations. Not speaking about the annihilation of Israel.
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