The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future

Germany's Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led a coalition government that now appears to have reached the end of the road. This is because all the ministers from the liberal FDP party announced their resignation from the government after Scholz dismissed the party's chairman, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from his post.

Scholz explained that the reason for Lindner’s dismissal was a loss of confidence in him, stemming from the liberal Finance Minister's economic policy views, which differed from those of the Chancellor and the third coalition partner, the Greens.

Next, Scholz intends to negotiate with the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, and offer him an opportunity to “work constructively together on issues critical to our country.” It remains to be seen whether Merz will be willing to rescue Scholz, whose popularity among the public continues to decline.

The Greens, however, would like to continue governing Germany alongside the Social Democrats. Nonetheless, Scholz is expected to face a parliamentary vote of confidence in January. Should the government receive a vote of no confidence, new parliamentary elections would likely be held in March.

According to recent polls, significant shifts could be expected in the Bundestag. The latest surveys indicate that only 16 percent of eligible voters currently support the SPD, while the country’s most popular party is now the CDU with around 32 percent support.

The immigration-critical right-wing party AfD holds second place with 17 percent, followed by the SPD. The Greens have around 10 percent support, and the immigration-critical left-wing party BSW holds about seven percent. All other parties, including the liberals, are currently polling below Germany's five-percent electoral threshold.

In my view, it would be beneficial for Europe if the German parliament were to dissolve the government and hold elections as soon as possible. This way, the EU could rid itself of Germany’s Russia-leaning government and hopefully see a new leadership in its leading nation, one that could pursue foreign policy independent of Russia and bring Germany's economy back on a growth track.

This would also allow the EU, under Germany's leadership, to take responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressor – especially if the United States, under a returning president, shifts its military support more towards Taiwan in response to increasing pressure from China, and if Donald Trump fails to negotiate a peace within 24 hours, as may be expected.

And that’s not all, as a favorable election result could also lead to the AfD joining the government, which would make immigration a prominent issue in German politics. This, in turn, could potentially put an end to the mass migration across the Mediterranean.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
The EU Is Suffocating Under Double Bureaucracy
The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties