When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Many states have recognized the State of Palestine. In other words, they have recognized something that does not even exist.

Finland is not, at least for the time being, part of this group. But now the entire Finnish green-left – the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Left Alliance – have demanded that Finland’s government recognize the State of Palestine. In other words – I repeat – recognize something that does not even exist.

President of Finland Alexander Stubb has left this matter to the government and parliament, meaning he has promised to sign the recognition if such a proposal is placed on his desk. It has not yet been presented, but according to Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, “the government is still processing the matter, but our main policy, as decided in the foreign and security policy report, is that we promote the two-state solution.”

In practice, the government is unlikely to make such a proposal to the President, since its other main party, the Finns Party, as well as its smallest party, the Christian Democrats, oppose recognition. The President has also acknowledged this, saying: “Somehow I don’t believe I will receive this proposal before the UN meeting next week.

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For my part, I state that if a new independent state is created in Palestine, I am ready to support its recognition immediately. On the other hand, I do not wish under any circumstances to recognize something that does not even exist.

In this, I follow the model set by Western countries over a hundred years ago – including Germany, which was at war with them – who decided after Finland declared independence in 1917 that recognition would not come until Soviet Russia itself recognized the new state. This led the ruling Senate of Finland to turn to Lenin’s Council of People’s Commissars.

After various stages, Lenin then acknowledged the facts as they were and recognized Finland’s independence. After that, Western nations followed suit one by one, and there has been no ambiguity about Finland’s independence since, even though the Soviet Union tried to occupy the country during World War II – on two separate occasions.

This is the same model I am prepared to recommend for the recognition of Palestine. That is, let the Palestinians lay down their arms, make peace with Israel, and agree on the conditions under which an entity made up of the West Bank and Gaza could achieve independence. And let Finland, in that context, acknowledge the reality – and grant recognition to the new state only then.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Did Finland Remain an Independent Democracy After World War II?
When Should We Recognize the Independence of Palestine?
Palestinian Youth Require More Understanding, Less Aggression

Shock in Berlin: AfD Surges, Merz Stumbles

It may come as no surprise that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is taking the country's intelligence service to court over its classification of the party as a far-right group. What is a far bigger surprise, however, is that Friedrich Merz was not elected Chancellor in the first vote of the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, to lead a coalition government between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.

This is likely to be corrected in the second vote. More interestingly, the AfD has already called for new elections.

The reason for this is likely the party’s rising popularity, now surpassing that of all other parties. This is certainly not only due to the perception that the intelligence service’s classification is undemocratic. The protest mood has likely also been fueled by the fact that no attempt was made—even symbolically—to negotiate a coalition with the AfD, which came second in the election. That, too, can be seen as a sign of broken democracy.

That’s why it will be fascinating to see how support for German political parties evolves in the coming months and years. Will the AfD continue to grow in popularity, or will Merz’s government restore public trust in the traditional parties?

At least Merz has a good starting point: the debt brake has been loosened, and he has pledged to fix Germany’s infrastructure and armed forces with hundreds of billions in additional funding. On the other hand, if Germany's sluggish economy begins to noticeably affect people's standard of living, support could also rise for protest parties other than the AfD.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
AfD Under Fire – But Is Democracy the Price?
Good luck to Chancellor Friedrich Merz!
What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?

On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria

The Syrian revolution demonstrated that Russia does not have the capacity to wage two battles simultaneously. In other words, its resources are fully committed in Ukraine.

This should be clearly understood in Western countries. Moreover, the obvious conclusion should be drawn: Russia can also be defeated in the war in Ukraine by increasing support for Zelenskyy's army.

Increasing this support is particularly advantageous for European states because a Russian victory in Ukraine would sooner or later weaken the security of European countries. Additionally, the future U.S. president, Donald Trump, has declared his goal to shift responsibility from the United States to EU countries.

One key figure in this matter is Germany's Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, who is currently in Kyiv negotiating what kind of support Ukraine will need in the future. He is also very likely to take his place as Germany's Chancellor after the elections next February.

One can only hope that German voters and Merz himself understand that they hold a rare opportunity to change the global political situation for the better. And if they do, other Western countries will resolutely follow their example.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future

Germany's Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led a coalition government that now appears to have reached the end of the road. This is because all the ministers from the liberal FDP party announced their resignation from the government after Scholz dismissed the party's chairman, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from his post.

Scholz explained that the reason for Lindner’s dismissal was a loss of confidence in him, stemming from the liberal Finance Minister's economic policy views, which differed from those of the Chancellor and the third coalition partner, the Greens.

Next, Scholz intends to negotiate with the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, and offer him an opportunity to “work constructively together on issues critical to our country.” It remains to be seen whether Merz will be willing to rescue Scholz, whose popularity among the public continues to decline.

The Greens, however, would like to continue governing Germany alongside the Social Democrats. Nonetheless, Scholz is expected to face a parliamentary vote of confidence in January. Should the government receive a vote of no confidence, new parliamentary elections would likely be held in March.

According to recent polls, significant shifts could be expected in the Bundestag. The latest surveys indicate that only 16 percent of eligible voters currently support the SPD, while the country’s most popular party is now the CDU with around 32 percent support.

The immigration-critical right-wing party AfD holds second place with 17 percent, followed by the SPD. The Greens have around 10 percent support, and the immigration-critical left-wing party BSW holds about seven percent. All other parties, including the liberals, are currently polling below Germany's five-percent electoral threshold.

In my view, it would be beneficial for Europe if the German parliament were to dissolve the government and hold elections as soon as possible. This way, the EU could rid itself of Germany’s Russia-leaning government and hopefully see a new leadership in its leading nation, one that could pursue foreign policy independent of Russia and bring Germany's economy back on a growth track.

This would also allow the EU, under Germany's leadership, to take responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressor – especially if the United States, under a returning president, shifts its military support more towards Taiwan in response to increasing pressure from China, and if Donald Trump fails to negotiate a peace within 24 hours, as may be expected.

And that’s not all, as a favorable election result could also lead to the AfD joining the government, which would make immigration a prominent issue in German politics. This, in turn, could potentially put an end to the mass migration across the Mediterranean.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
The EU Is Suffocating Under Double Bureaucracy
The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties

United Nations, corruption and terrorism

In Finland, a new president will be elected tomorrow, Sunday. One of the candidates, Sari Essayah of the Christian Democrats, stated in the final election debate that UN organizations are corrupt.

This statement shouldn't have caused much attention, as the corruption within the UN is considered a public secret – known to anyone who follows international affairs even remotely. However, addressing it more forcefully would lead to a crisis for the entire organization, so it is allowed to persist.

The presidential candidate's perspective emerged in the context of discussing development cooperation through the UN and the influence it provides in the third world. Finland is reducing the financial flows it contributes to this, which has sparked opposition, especially among those whose income and lifestyle depend on this activity.

In this regard, it was unpleasant to discover that deep-seated corruption is not the UN's only significant problem. This realization comes as it has been revealed that some of the organization's employees have even participated in terrorist activities and subsequently been dismissed from their positions.

I am referring, of course, to the news that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is horrified by the accusations, and there is now an urgent and comprehensive independent audit of UNRWA to verify its credibility. Having followed the actions of the UN for decades, I am not surprised by this development, and I have no doubt about the validity of the accusations.

However, it is good that the issue has now come to light, as it provides hope for change within the organization. Such change, though, requires the major funding states – namely the USA and other Western countries – to act decisively in this matter. If this happens, there may be renewed hope that the UN will one day become a useful organization.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Christmas gift to the Holy Land
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto aligned Indonesia on the wrong side of world history
Most useless organisations of our time