On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria

The Syrian revolution demonstrated that Russia does not have the capacity to wage two battles simultaneously. In other words, its resources are fully committed in Ukraine.

This should be clearly understood in Western countries. Moreover, the obvious conclusion should be drawn: Russia can also be defeated in the war in Ukraine by increasing support for Zelenskyy's army.

Increasing this support is particularly advantageous for European states because a Russian victory in Ukraine would sooner or later weaken the security of European countries. Additionally, the future U.S. president, Donald Trump, has declared his goal to shift responsibility from the United States to EU countries.

One key figure in this matter is Germany's Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, who is currently in Kyiv negotiating what kind of support Ukraine will need in the future. He is also very likely to take his place as Germany's Chancellor after the elections next February.

One can only hope that German voters and Merz himself understand that they hold a rare opportunity to change the global political situation for the better. And if they do, other Western countries will resolutely follow their example.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on social media that Russia has successfully launched an offensive against Ukrainians in the Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin has also clarified the goal he has set for the Russian forces: the expulsion of Ukrainians from the Russian soil by the beginning of October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has commented on the Russian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that everything is going according to Ukraine's plans. This likely suggests that the Russians have not made significant progress, at least in the first few days of their attack.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the Russians will succeed in their attempt to eliminate the war from their own soil, or if Ukraine will continue to remind them that they are still at war — and on their own territory, no less. What could be more embarrassing for self-made great men like Putin and Lavrov? 

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Meanwhile, far in the north, there have been claims that drones are interfering with the Murmansk airport, with reports that two drones were even shot down. In relation to this, the Russians have been spreading disinformation, claiming that the drones supposedly came from Finland.

This claim is interesting because - if there truly were drones in Murmansk - it suggests that Moscow finds it too difficult to admit that such drones might have come all the way from Ukraine. Such an event would highlight the significant inability of the Russians to control their own airspace.

In any case, the war in Ukraine will continue, and the outcome remains uncertain. The only clear thing is that if the Russians manage to emerge even somewhat victorious, neighboring countries can be certain that sooner or later they, too, will face some sort of "special operations".

Therefore, it is extremely important to ensure that Ukrainians receive the necessary help from the West to defeat the Russian army. Additionally, in any potential peace negotiations, support must be given to the return of all territories occupied by Putin's forces — including Crimea — to Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Vandalism in Northern Sweden - But Who Is Responsible?

Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen

Russia's successful offensive, particularly in ammunition-strapped Ukraine, is now at a critical juncture after the Americans finally provided Ukraine with an aid package. Therefore, it is a good time to review what the Finns and others think about the situation.

According to a recent survey, the majority of Finns are willing to take on EU joint debt or even increase EU membership fees to support Ukraine. It seems that the descendants of the heroes of the Winter War remember very well the plight of a country left alone against a superpower and do not want history to repeat itself.

Belgium, on the other hand, has promised to supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighter jets. Thus, the nation crushed by the Nazis in 1940 is also offering its support to President Zelensky's army.

Ukraine has halted Russia's advance in the Kharkiv region, and Russian forces have turned to the defensive in the area. It remains to be seen whether they will succeed or lose the territory gained with the blood of their soldiers right away.

As a result of its aggression, Russia has lost over half a million soldiers, both dead and wounded, during the offensive war started two years ago. This number is large and exceeds the losses suffered by the Russians during the three months of the Winter War of 1939-40 by about one third.

The essential thing in all of this is that the Western countries do not allow Russia to benefit in any way from its aggression. Instead, it must be ensured that Vladimir Putin learns he does not lead a military superpower, but rather a technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A woman's logic, Putin's test, and the Netherlands' change
The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers

Putin is in a political and military impasse

After Ukraine defeated Russian army in Lyman, the officers of Putin´s military forces reacted in a very interesting way. 

Ramzan Kadyrov - the leader of Chechen forces - demanded use of nuclear weapons. He also blamed Alexander Lapin - the commander of the Central Military District of Russian army - for the loss of the town. And not only that, but he also said that Valery Gerasimov - the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of defense - had been covering the mistakes made by Lapin.

Furthermore, Kadyrov was supported by Yevgeny Prigozhin - the owner of the Wagner Group. And both were backed up by some TV persons and war bloggers, who blamed military leaders of Russia on corruption and indifference. 

In other words, collaboration within Russian army has been seriously damaged as the key persons are quarreling with each others. And as we all know, that makes their fight against Ukrainian army even more difficult than thus far. Therefore - in my opinion - there are no obstacles in further success for Zelenskiy´s troops - not even due to expected fresh soldiers appearing to the front after the ongoing mobilization of poorly trained Russian reserves.

This all may increase the risk of Putin making a decision of using tactical nuclear weapons. He should - however - consider that western powers could not look aside if that happened. And that there is no doubt they would respond strictly and strongly. 

In other words, it is becoming clear that Putin has driven himself into a political and military impasse. Therefore, we have to ask, how long will the Russian military remain loyal to Putin? And when they finish it: what will they do to him?

 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Tradition of low professional ability among Russian security agency and dictators
How can Vladimir Putin survive from his propaganda after the Russian loss in Ukraine?
Russian army not comparable to western military services