Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?

The Syrian rebels have overthrown the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The country's new leader is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, though he is better known by his Islamist name, Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

Upon taking power, the revolutionary leader has reverted to using his real name, possibly to emphasize that he has not been associated with the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization for years. Interestingly, he has also promised the Syrian people and administration a peaceful transition of power. As a sign of this, public institutions have been ordered to continue operating under the framework of the old regime.

At least Bashar al-Assad’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has remained in the country and offered cooperation with the new authorities. Meanwhile, the former dictator himself has fled Damascus on an aircraft whose signal disappeared shortly after takeoff. Before vanishing, its trajectory pointed north.

This all suggests that, contrary to my initial expectations, Syria’s new government is unlikely to immediately establish a brutal regime akin to Afghanistan’s. Instead, despite its Islamist roots, it appears to be aiming to create a civilized administration—perhaps even a democracy.

However, it is possible that the country will begin a gradual shift toward Islamism once the dust settles. It is also conceivable that the rebels could eventually fall into internal conflict.

This is because the newly empowered Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not the only faction that opposed Assad. Other groups continue to operate within the country, including the ISIS terrorist organization, which still dreams of its own caliphate, and the Kurdish Rojava, which has effectively governed the northeastern region of the country for over a decade.

Let us therefore watch the situation with cautious optimism, fearing the worst but hoping for the best—and hoping that this revolution does not lead to a new wave of mass migration from Syria to Europe.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Futile Civil War in Syria
Hassan Nasrallah Has Been Killed, but Lebanon Is Unlikely to Become the Switzerland of the Middle East Again
Three Islamists Arrested in Finland on Suspicion of Belonging to a Terrorist Group