Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?

The Syrian rebels have overthrown the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The country's new leader is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, though he is better known by his Islamist name, Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

Upon taking power, the revolutionary leader has reverted to using his real name, possibly to emphasize that he has not been associated with the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization for years. Interestingly, he has also promised the Syrian people and administration a peaceful transition of power. As a sign of this, public institutions have been ordered to continue operating under the framework of the old regime.

At least Bashar al-Assad’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has remained in the country and offered cooperation with the new authorities. Meanwhile, the former dictator himself has fled Damascus on an aircraft whose signal disappeared shortly after takeoff. Before vanishing, its trajectory pointed north.

This all suggests that, contrary to my initial expectations, Syria’s new government is unlikely to immediately establish a brutal regime akin to Afghanistan’s. Instead, despite its Islamist roots, it appears to be aiming to create a civilized administration—perhaps even a democracy.

However, it is possible that the country will begin a gradual shift toward Islamism once the dust settles. It is also conceivable that the rebels could eventually fall into internal conflict.

This is because the newly empowered Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not the only faction that opposed Assad. Other groups continue to operate within the country, including the ISIS terrorist organization, which still dreams of its own caliphate, and the Kurdish Rojava, which has effectively governed the northeastern region of the country for over a decade.

Let us therefore watch the situation with cautious optimism, fearing the worst but hoping for the best—and hoping that this revolution does not lead to a new wave of mass migration from Syria to Europe.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Futile Civil War in Syria
Hassan Nasrallah Has Been Killed, but Lebanon Is Unlikely to Become the Switzerland of the Middle East Again
Three Islamists Arrested in Finland on Suspicion of Belonging to a Terrorist Group

Afghans Had to Go

In Germany, there is growing frustration with the behavior of Afghans who fled the Islamist regime in their country. As a result, the country deported nearly 30 Afghans who had committed serious crimes back to their homeland. The news does not report how the Taliban responded to this.

The news also does not clarify whether the German government's decision was influenced by the rising support for parties opposing asylum, particularly in the eastern part of the country. This is the region that previously had to live under a distasteful communist regime that disregarded human rights.

The case is significant because the deportation occurred to a country whose lack of human rights is unquestionable. Yet, despite this, the Germans decided to deport individuals who had been granted asylum there.

Also another significant decision was made. According to it, a refugee or asylum seeker's vacation trip to their home country will result in the revocation of their refugee status and deportation. However, they are still allowed to travel to their home country for the funeral of a close relative – as long as they can prove that such a funeral is indeed being held.

A third, but lesser point, is that Germany has decided to return humanitarian refugees to the EU country where they were first registered. As a result, asylum shopping will become more difficult for refugees seeking social security benefits.

It remains to be seen whether these changes will serve as examples for other countries suffering from Islamic immigration, such as Sweden, Belgium, or France. Or Finland, where the second-largest party – and now part of the government – is the Finns Party, which has a critical stance on immigration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth
A caliphate was demanded in Germany

Afghanistan now and in the future

Taliban regime is leading its "Islamic empire" by pushing women out of the visible society. That means no school to girls after the sixth grade and coverage of women´s face in public space - and ultimately pushing the more beautiful gender out of the decision making. 

However, according to a Finnish official in the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs that is not the full picture. Although conservatives are now in leading positions in Afghanistan, there are people even in the government, who would like to see also elder girls in the school. 

And we should not forget that after the revolution the country has calmed down so much, that international help can be provided to those who need it. Also the share of people suffering from direct hunger has halved. 

I am not aware what has happened to the corruption, that was enormous in the country during the regime supported by western countries before the Taliban revolution. That, however, is one of the key issues to be solved in attempts to make Afghanistan a decent country for living. 

In regard to the humanitarian development, the most important development will take place among the Taliban leaders. When the current ultraconservative leaders will step out, will they be replaced by similar but younger people? Or will the power be moved to more liberal politicians. 

The latter option might even draw some Afghan expatriates from other countries back to Afghanistan. If so, they could bring skills and attitudes learned in western countries that could accelerate the development of the democracy and economy of the society. 

Although the latter option would change government policy towards more civilized and equal society, the Afghan´s attitudes ares a big question mark. Would they - and especially their most powerful tribal leaders - accept more liberal steps, or would another version of Islamic extremity, namely ISIS, raise its head as a counter reaction? And would that drive the country again into a chaos?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The arrival of caliphate citizens must be prevented