Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War

Donald Trump's proposal to end the war in Ukraine was like a godsend for Russia. First of all, he announced that he was ready to legally — de jure — recognize Russia’s control over the Crimean Peninsula.

Secondly, he is prepared to accept — de facto — Russia's occupation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. These are areas that contain a significant share of Ukraine's vital natural resources and where a large part of Ukraine’s industry and mining operations were concentrated before the war.

Additionally, Trump wanted to block Ukraine from joining NATO but did not offer any credible alternative security guarantees.

Finnish Member of Parliament Jani Kokko (Social Democrats) rightly pointed out that "this is an outright catastrophic shift away from the principle that has been pursued in Europe and internationally for decades: that war cannot be used to achieve political goals." Therefore, according to Finnish MP Jukka Kopra (National Coalition Party), "Trump’s proposal appears to suggest that Russia is pursuing its own war aims and has managed to draw the United States into its orbit."

As for me, I will simply say that this peace proposal only further strengthened my impression that Donald Trump has, in one way or another, ended up in Vladimir Putin’s pocket. And that he is acting from there in Putin’s interest — while causing nearly irreversible damage. Not just to Ukraine, but to the entire world — including the United States he leads.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Can Trump Resist the Kremlin’s Lure?
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump Agree on Cooperation to Bring Peace to Ukraine
Political Rhetoric Like Trump-Zelenskyi’s Has Deep Historical Roots

It Is Time for Vladimir Putin to Acknowledge the Facts and Do Dmitry Medvedev a Favor

Ukraine carried out its first strike on Russia using ATACMS missiles. The attack targeted facilities of the Main Directorate of Missiles and Artillery of the Russian Ministry of Defense located in the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region.

As noted by the Finnish Minister of Defense, the use of the missiles confirmed that Russian threats of nuclear war have lost their effectiveness. And showed that Western countries can continue to support Ukrainians even more extensively and with more effective means.

Thus, Russia finds itself in a position where it must consider its response to what has happened. Therefore I will offer them—and particularly Vladimir Putin—a free piece of advice: now is the time to acknowledge the facts, recognize Ukraine’s legitimate borders, and withdraw the military from Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula.

The strike demonstrated that Western countries will not abandon Ukraine in the future either, meaning Russia has practically no chance of winning the war. And the only reason left to continue it would be the senseless sacrifice of Russian soldiers.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Dmitry Medvedev has once again made irresponsible threats involving nuclear weapons. He seems like a pleasant enough man, but is clearly not in his right mind. Therefore, I ask you, Comrade Putin, to do him a favor and arrange for him to receive appropriate care.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Is Putin's Administration Rational?
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
Russians are, Intellectually, Spiritually, and Morally, a Deficient People

 

Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

According to BBC, a former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump - Bryan Lanza - says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to regain territory occupied by Russia. Furthermore, he stated that "if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well, we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious, Crimea is gone."

However, Lanza no longer works for Trump, so it's difficult to say if his words carry much weight. Still, it’s always permissible to speculate.

In my opinion, it has long been clear that Russia—at least under Vladimir Putin's rule—will not stop if it can gain advantages through military actions. And turning Crimea over to Moscow’s control would indeed be one such advantage in the highest degree.

Thus, it seems likely that once peace is achieved, Putin would first focus on rearming his military and would use it in the future when a suitable target appears. That target could be one of the neighboring countries in either Europe or Asia.

For Ukrainians, the problem is also the fact that Russia has not kept its promise to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, along with a few other countries, made this promise when the government in Kyiv surrendered Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia.

The treaty text states: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."

As my esteemed reader has noticed, the United States would also be breaking its promise if the Trump administration acts as Lanza predicts. It is clear that if this happens, international treaties and their significance will become even less meaningful. And this does not benefit relations between states.

One can only hope that this will be understood within the Trump administration as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on social media that Russia has successfully launched an offensive against Ukrainians in the Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin has also clarified the goal he has set for the Russian forces: the expulsion of Ukrainians from the Russian soil by the beginning of October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has commented on the Russian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that everything is going according to Ukraine's plans. This likely suggests that the Russians have not made significant progress, at least in the first few days of their attack.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the Russians will succeed in their attempt to eliminate the war from their own soil, or if Ukraine will continue to remind them that they are still at war — and on their own territory, no less. What could be more embarrassing for self-made great men like Putin and Lavrov? 

* * *

Meanwhile, far in the north, there have been claims that drones are interfering with the Murmansk airport, with reports that two drones were even shot down. In relation to this, the Russians have been spreading disinformation, claiming that the drones supposedly came from Finland.

This claim is interesting because - if there truly were drones in Murmansk - it suggests that Moscow finds it too difficult to admit that such drones might have come all the way from Ukraine. Such an event would highlight the significant inability of the Russians to control their own airspace.

In any case, the war in Ukraine will continue, and the outcome remains uncertain. The only clear thing is that if the Russians manage to emerge even somewhat victorious, neighboring countries can be certain that sooner or later they, too, will face some sort of "special operations".

Therefore, it is extremely important to ensure that Ukrainians receive the necessary help from the West to defeat the Russian army. Additionally, in any potential peace negotiations, support must be given to the return of all territories occupied by Putin's forces — including Crimea — to Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Vandalism in Northern Sweden - But Who Is Responsible?

Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?

Based on yesterday's news, Ukraine has managed to break through Russia's strongest defensive line in the Zaporiizhia region. This news is likely to warm the hearts of most Western people, but at the same time, it raises concerns for many about whether the Russian defense line might still be too long and heavily fortified for the Ukrainians.

As an example of this, Emil Kastehelmi, known for his strategic maps, expressed his concern about the situation's development. According to him, "Ukraine might still be able to push forward with a village or two, but a too narrow attack corridor could expose their flanks to a difficult and threatening situation."

Naturally, I don't have more information about the war situation from my living room, nor do I possess a crystal ball that shows the future. However, I do know quite a bit about the past, and that's why I decided to share a piece of information with you, dear readers.

Let's go back to the year 1940 in France. It trusted its fortification chain known as the Maginot Line along the German border after World War I. To the Gauls' dismay, the Germans bypassed the line from the north and didn't stay to fight for control of it; instead, they advanced straight to Paris.

Thus, the heavily fortified Maginot Line proved to be rather useless. Or rather, it became detrimental by tying the French forces to its positions - effectively removing them from the decisive battles of the western front in 1940.

So, in this article, I ask: what prevents the Ukrainians from repeating the same maneuver the Germans did in 1940? In the current situation, they could pour their reserves into the emerging gap and bypass the Russian fortifications, advancing deep behind Russian lines and ultimately reaching the Black Sea coast, cutting off the northern supply route that runs along the coastline.

If, at the same time, the Ukrainians manage to keep the Kerch Strait bridge at least partially impassable with missiles and drone strikes, a massive cauldron would form in Southern Ukraine. Russian forces - or at least their motivation - would likely be insufficient to break this encirclement. On the contrary, with supply lines severed, surrender might become a thought for several Russian soldiers and units.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
Victims of Russian leaders
A Finnish military professor predicted the possibilities of Ukraine's counterattack