Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

The Iranian government threatened to destroy water desalination plants in the Persian Gulf countries if the United States begins destroying its energy facilities. As a result, millions of people would face a horrific situation—assuming water production were severely disrupted—since the region’s natural water resources are insufficient to meet their needs.

With this threat—or at least by carrying it out—the Iranians would violate international agreements that prohibit attacks on infrastructure vital to civilians, such as drinking water systems and dams. In doing so, they would act just as the Russians have in Ukraine—without facing any particularly serious consequences. And they continue to do so.

Thus, in Putin’s “three-day special operation,” a precedent has been created that encourages the Iranians to act in a questionable manner. At the same time, it demonstrates the toothlessness of international law when it comes to protecting civilians.

* * *

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are one of the most significant proxy actors of Iran against other states and their governments in the region. However, they have been remarkably passive during the attack against their “patron”—perhaps purely out of self-preservation.

Now, however, the Houthis have announced their intention to join the war on the side of the Iranian government if the United States or Israel use the Red Sea against it. In practice, however, the Houthis’ capabilities would likely be limited to harassing ships traveling by sea.

Unfortunately, even that alone would have significant economic consequences for global trade. And therefore—if that were to happen—the rest of the world might have to consider whether the time has finally come to take real action to dismantle the terrorist Houthi regime.

* * *

If the two threats discussed above are extremely serious, the third case that caught my attention is rather amusing. I am referring to Russia’s threat to halt gasoline exports abroad. This comes after its oil infrastructure has been repeatedly destroyed—most recently even in ports along the coast of the Gulf of Finland.

Of course, the Russian threat shows that they have understood how to make use of the situation. They are scoring points by turning necessity into a virtue. It remains to be seen, however, whether this threat will have any impact on the course of the war, in which Ukraine has clearly gained the upper hand this year and now appears likely to emerge as the victor.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been a shock to military leadership worldwide, as old doctrines of warfare have been put to the test there – and in many respects, outright discarded. As a result, every army’s leadership has been forced to consider how to respond to these newly emerged challenges. For arms manufacturers, the task has become figuring out how to meet these needs.

In this regard, an illuminating example is provided by Patria, a manufacturer of military vehicles, which has unveiled a new armored personnel carrier equipped with a machine gun – the Patria TRACKX. This is a next-generation vehicle that specifically incorporates lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

One such lesson is the threat posed by drones, which until now has scarcely been taken into account in military vehicle design. TRACKX brings a change in this area, as its protection is designed specifically to neutralize drone attacks.

Another key issue highlighted by the war in Ukraine for military vehicle design is the requirement for high performance in challenging conditions. For this reason, TRACKX runs on rubber tracks but can also move at high speed when needed. This has been demonstrated in practice, as TRACKX set a new world speed record for tracked vehicles in the spring – 88 kilometers per hour.

Patria expects that, due to these innovative features, there will be significant demand for the vehicle both within the EU and beyond. According to the company, serial production will begin in 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine Action Suomi - a Bona Fide Actor or False Flag Organization?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

The Finnish Stabber Has a Long Track Record of Violence

I wrote yesterday about the mass stabbing that took place in Tampere, in which a Finnish man injured four people. Over the course of today, more information about the case has come to light, prompting reflection on the fairness of the Finnish justice system.

The Finnish Broadcasting Company (Yle) has reported that the man arrested for the crime has previously been convicted of multiple violent offenses. He was charged with attempted manslaughter for an incident in June 2023, in which he stabbed a sleeping acquaintance in the stomach.

However, in January 2024, he was only convicted of aggravated assault, assault against another man, illegal threats, two cases of property damage, and obstruction of an official. According to the verdict, he was supposed to serve a total of two and a half years in prison.

Last month, the stabber also received another six-month prison sentence for assaulting a victim in the fall of 2021. In that case, he had repeatedly struck the victim in the head, strangled them, and beaten them in the upper body with a metal pipe. At the time, he was on probation. He was sentenced to only six months in prison, as his previous conviction for aggravated assault was considered a mitigating factor.

In addition, the man was sentenced to three years in prison for three robberies committed in 2020, when he was 18 years old.

In light of all this, we must ask how the justice system intends to respond to the man's actions from yesterday when the case eventually goes to court. Will he again be granted sentence reductions and be allowed to endanger others’ safety after serving only a short prison term?

Or will the court finally recognize that this is a person who, with near certainty, will sooner or later end up killing one of his victims, and who therefore must be kept behind closed doors for the rest of his life? And if it doesn’t, is it prepared to take responsibility for the death of an innocent person?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Multiple Stabbings Reported in Tampere, Finland
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
Why Were Violent Protests Acceptable for George Floyd but Not for the UK Child Murders?

Nuclear Debate in Sweden and Lithuania’s Treaty Withdrawal

Donald Trump's foreign policy as the President of the United States is leading to an increase in Europe's defense capabilities. Two interesting news stories emerged on this topic yesterday.

The potentially more significant of the two was the report that Swedes are considering developing their own nuclear weapon—meaning a withdrawal from the international nuclear arms treaty. While the country's political leadership has denied such intentions, the discussion on the matter remains heated.

What adds credibility to this possibility is the fact that Sweden was developing its own nuclear weapon until the 1970s. This gives the country a significant scientific and technological advantage over many other nations. Therefore, it would not take long to produce the weapon necessary to secure peace in the Nordic region.

The other news concerned Lithuania, which today withdrew from the Convention on Cluster Munitions. As a result, Lithuania became the first country to exit the treaty, which has over a hundred signatories, and, more broadly, the first nation to withdraw from any so-called humanitarian disarmament agreement.

This, of course, is driven solely by the security threat posed by Russia, combined with uncertainty about U.S. support in the event of an attack. The same reasoning naturally applies to Sweden's nuclear debate as well.

All of this demonstrates that the grand political landscape in Europe, which had remained relatively stable since 1945, has been completely transformed by Russia’s war against Ukraine and Trump’s election. And the consequences are certainly not in line with the hopes of peace activists.

However, it remains to be seen whether, for example, France’s President Emmanuel Macron's promise of a nuclear umbrella will be enough for Sweden. A major issue with this, however, is the limited number of such weapons, meaning that the resulting destruction on enemy soil would still be relatively contained. And that could tempt a reckless dictator, in the vein of Joseph Stalin, into pursuing adventurist policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine
Will Finland Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty?
Will Russia Test NATO's Article Five?

It Is Time for Vladimir Putin to Acknowledge the Facts and Do Dmitry Medvedev a Favor

Ukraine carried out its first strike on Russia using ATACMS missiles. The attack targeted facilities of the Main Directorate of Missiles and Artillery of the Russian Ministry of Defense located in the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region.

As noted by the Finnish Minister of Defense, the use of the missiles confirmed that Russian threats of nuclear war have lost their effectiveness. And showed that Western countries can continue to support Ukrainians even more extensively and with more effective means.

Thus, Russia finds itself in a position where it must consider its response to what has happened. Therefore I will offer them—and particularly Vladimir Putin—a free piece of advice: now is the time to acknowledge the facts, recognize Ukraine’s legitimate borders, and withdraw the military from Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula.

The strike demonstrated that Western countries will not abandon Ukraine in the future either, meaning Russia has practically no chance of winning the war. And the only reason left to continue it would be the senseless sacrifice of Russian soldiers.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Dmitry Medvedev has once again made irresponsible threats involving nuclear weapons. He seems like a pleasant enough man, but is clearly not in his right mind. Therefore, I ask you, Comrade Putin, to do him a favor and arrange for him to receive appropriate care.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Is Putin's Administration Rational?
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
Russians are, Intellectually, Spiritually, and Morally, a Deficient People

 

Is Putin's Administration Rational?

According to news reports, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has given Ukrainians permission to strike Russian territory using American missiles. Member of the Finnish Parliament and Doctor of Military Science Jarmo Limnell (National Coalition Party) has supported the decision.

This is because, as Limnell explains, "Ukraine, defending its independence, has had to fight in the 'boxing ring of war' with one hand tied behind its back. Now, the other hand is freed."

In Russia, however, the reaction was far from enthusiastic, and threats resumed. For example, a Russian politician, Vladimir Dzhabarov, ominously claimed, “This is a very large step toward the start of World War III.”

Thus, we must ask: is a Third World War on the brink of breaking out, something that, at least in my youth, was feared capable of destroying humanity as a whole—and along with it, all advanced life forms? Or are we once again simply witnessing typical Russian rhetoric?

First, it must be noted that Vladimir Putin’s earlier threats concerning Western support for Ukraine have not materialized. Second, it’s essential to recognize that Russia would inevitably face defeat if the situation escalated into a full-scale war against the United States. This is because there is a vast disparity in military technology between the two countries, as shown by Israel’s successful strikes using Western technology against Iranian forces equipped with Russian arms.

On the other hand, it’s also crucial to remember that this gap in technology would hardly matter if Russia decided to use nuclear weapons. Even if it’s clear that most, if not all, of these missiles would be intercepted, those that made it through would cause such extensive devastation that there would be no true victors in the war.

Additionally, it’s evident that Russia lacks the capacity to defend against a possible Western retaliatory strike with nuclear weapons, meaning the resulting destruction in Russia would be catastrophically vast. This is why responsible leadership in Russia cannot consider using nuclear weapons unless it faces an existential threat.

The use of U.S.-provided conventional missiles with standard warheads within Russia poses no such existential threat, though it would increase the cost of the war for Putin’s administration. Thus, a rational Russian leadership would not resort to nuclear weapons on this account.

This leads us to the question: Is Vladimir Putin, along with the rest of Russia’s leadership, rational? And we must hope that, despite everything we have seen so far, the answer is still "yes."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine

The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties

During the 1980s, European media headlines were dominated not only by the fear of nuclear war but also by the nuclear power plant accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, biodiversity loss, and pollution, which was blamed for causing widespread forest dieback in Poland, Germany, and Finland. In other words, the atmosphere of doomsday was similar to what we experience today with the fear of global warming.

Especially young people were anxious – just as they are today – which provided an opportunity for a new kind of political movement. This gave rise to the political emergence of green movements in Germany, Finland and various other countries, leading to significant support in many nations, where environmental advocates even entered national governments.

However, over time, the consequences of nuclear accidents were found to be far less severe than feared four decades ago, and forests continued to grow. At the same time, European industries reduced their emissions to a fraction of what they had been, and agriculture and forestry became more environmentally friendly.

As a result, the driving force behind the popularity of green movements began to fade, leading them to seek new agendas. These were primarily found in value-liberal thinking, whose conclusions were incorporated into green party programs across Europe. This appeared to make the movements a permanent part of the European political power structure.

Eventually, the year 2015 arrived, along with the large migration wave from developing countries. Green movements supported this, which led to a collapse in less than a decade, as the newcomers proved poorly adaptable to European societies.

Thus, the previously extremely powerful German Green Party practically collapsed this fall in the state elections in eastern Germany. Its support in Thuringia was only 1.1% of the votes. In Saxony, the party's share was even smaller, at 1.0%, and in Brandenburg, it was a dismal 0.8%.

In Finland, the Green Party, which at its peak attracted about one-sixth of Finns, fell out of government after the poorly performing 2023 parliamentary elections, and its support has not recovered from rock-bottom levels. It is reasonable to assume that its support would be even lower without the prominent media coverage of the supposed consequences of climate change.

It remains to be seen whether Europe's green movements will have a return to prominence in the future. In my view, this is not possible without a significant reform, in which the parties would abandon at least the most irrational of their value-liberal theses, such as boundless empathy for poorly integrating immigrants or their support for eco-fascist organizations like Extinction Rebellion.

In this regard, I noted as a positive development that at least one Finnish Green politician has condemned the recent attack by the aforementioned eco-fascist organization against Finnish democracy. However, this doesn't allow them to stand out, as also all other Finnish political movements – even the far left – acted similarly. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Green Movement of Finland is Lost
The Role of Ukraine Aid in the Elections of Thuringia and Saxony, Germany
Competence of the political left

Defiant children and Chinese palace dogs

A person equipped with common sense knows well that one should be cautious when dealing with someone larger and stronger than oneself. Finland operated with good success in this manner after the Second World War, as the Soviet Union and later Russia did not direct a military attack towards our country.

The same logic still applies, but with the difference that now Finland, as part of NATO, is stronger than Russia, which fails to understand its changed position. However, the matter is somewhat insignificant, as Russia's blustering holds no more significance than the tantrums of a defiant child to its father.

This, of course, does not mean that we should not approach our large eastern neighbor with goodwill and avoid unnecessary confrontation. Yet, we should not and must not yield any kind of authority over ourselves to the dictator whose behavior resembles that of a defiant child.

The analogy holds true in the sense that this individual seems as incapable of understanding his own position as a defiant child facing difficulties. In this regard, we received an excellent example from the news this morning, reporting how he lied about his army's actions in Ukraine as smoothly as a defiant child throwing stones at a window with a handful of rocks in hand amidst shattered glass.

Certainly, in world politics, there are figures even more ludicrous than the Russian dictator. One such person holds power in North Korea, resembling a mentally disturbed Chinese palace dog growling and baring its teeth at a wolfhound.

Or what should one think of his threats to thoroughly destroy the United States?

The original thought in Finnish:
Uhmaikäisiä ja kiinanpalatsikoiria

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Desperate cry of Russians
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
Incapable of learning but capable of genocide