Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. According to the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, there are no prohibited areas.

So now is a good time to guess where Ukraine will strike first. Could the target even be the Kremlin in Moscow? Or some distant, particularly significant arms factory or oil refinery? Or perhaps St. Petersburg — the former capital of the Russian tsars — which is actually quite close to Finland?

If I had to bet, I’d put my money on a fairly close target: namely the Crimean Bridge, the destruction of which would have major strategic significance in the ongoing war.

I don’t have any inside information, so after writing this I’ll be waiting eagerly for tomorrow’s news from Ukraine. Hopefully it will be good.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been a shock to military leadership worldwide, as old doctrines of warfare have been put to the test there – and in many respects, outright discarded. As a result, every army’s leadership has been forced to consider how to respond to these newly emerged challenges. For arms manufacturers, the task has become figuring out how to meet these needs.

In this regard, an illuminating example is provided by Patria, a manufacturer of military vehicles, which has unveiled a new armored personnel carrier equipped with a machine gun – the Patria TRACKX. This is a next-generation vehicle that specifically incorporates lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

One such lesson is the threat posed by drones, which until now has scarcely been taken into account in military vehicle design. TRACKX brings a change in this area, as its protection is designed specifically to neutralize drone attacks.

Another key issue highlighted by the war in Ukraine for military vehicle design is the requirement for high performance in challenging conditions. For this reason, TRACKX runs on rubber tracks but can also move at high speed when needed. This has been demonstrated in practice, as TRACKX set a new world speed record for tracked vehicles in the spring – 88 kilometers per hour.

Patria expects that, due to these innovative features, there will be significant demand for the vehicle both within the EU and beyond. According to the company, serial production will begin in 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine Action Suomi - a Bona Fide Actor or False Flag Organization?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

Hamas Continues the Suffering of Gaza's Civilians

The terrorist organization Hamas, which governed the Gaza Strip before the current ongoing war, has issued a response to the latest ceasefire proposal for Gaza. Unfortunately, the response was not positive; instead, the organization has demanded additional conditions related to the delivery of aid shipments, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and security guarantees for a lasting ceasefire.

The most recent ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have lasted for over two weeks, with no significant breakthroughs. In other words, Hamas still does not appear willing to lay down its arms to relieve the people of Gaza from the suffering caused by the war. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Night at the Opera. 
Precedent from France Opens EU Pathway for Gaza Palestinians
Activism Without Truth

Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions

The European Union has decided to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism through the following measures: 

1. The use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be prohibited.
2. The price cap on Russian oil will be lowered from $60 to approximately $47 per barrel.
3. Sanctions will be imposed on 105 additional vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, which have been used to circumvent existing sanctions.
4. The exclusion of Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system will be expanded into a full trade embargo.
5. An additional 22 Russian banks will be included in the trade embargo.
6. Trade bans targeting entities in third countries will continue if they are found to be assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
7. The EU proposes sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its partners, and its investment targets.
8. The EU is proposing new export bans to Russia worth over €2.5 billion. These bans would target machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used in industry.
9. The export of dual-use goods to Russia will be prohibited. This includes items that could also be used for manufacturing weapons.
10. The EU has identified 22 new Russian or international companies that have supported Russia’s war economy.

This package is a good step, and hopefully it will lead to the gradual collapse of Russia’s war economy. However, what is needed right now is also more concrete military assistance for the Ukrainian army, so that the front-line situation turns in favor of the Ukrainians instead of the Russians constantly having the upper hand.

The United States – at least according to President Donald Trump – is already delivering a new military aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, now is also the right time for EU countries to do their part, so that the shift in the balance of power between the warring parties will be as significant as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine’s Former Foreign Minister Warns Against Another 1939 
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
Supercell’s Ban: The Sanction That Hit Russians the Hardest

Estonians Have Learned from Their History — and Defend Accordingly

One of the countries that regained its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union was Estonia—the northernmost and smallest of the Baltic states. It has a population of just under 1.5 million people, of whom 68.5 percent are ethnic Estonians, 21 percent Russians, 5.4 percent Ukrainians, and the rest people of other ethnic backgrounds.

This nation has built a prosperous state, where GDP per capita has risen from $2,685.90 in 1993 to an impressive $31,170. In other words, it has grown more than elevenfold—or by 1,160 percent.

Estonia was independent from 1918 until 1940, when the Soviet Union occupied it along with the other Baltic states, based on the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact it had signed with Nazi Germany. Incidentally, Stalin also issued ultimatums to Finland on similar grounds and eventually launched a full-scale military invasion. However, the Finns did not yield and managed to preserve their independence.

Having learned from all this, Estonians have taken national defense seriously since regaining independence. As a sign of this commitment, Estonia joined NATO as quickly as possible, and the country’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, has stated that Estonia allocates five percent of its gross domestic product to actual military spending.

Unlike in many other countries, high defense spending enjoys broad public support in Estonia. Among Estonian speakers, 41 percent believe defense spending should be increased to five percent of GDP, and 34 percent support a defense budget of 3.5 percent. Even among Russian speakers, 17 percent favor 3.5 percent, and five percent support increasing it to five percent.

This strong public backing allows Estonia’s defense forces to develop their capabilities further. In practice, this has included the acquisition of HIMARS air defense systems and long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. The rationale behind the latter is the principle that if Russia attacks Estonia, the war must be taken immediately to Russian soil.

I believe that Estonia’s perspective is worth listening to not only in neighboring countries that share a border with Russia but also in Central Europe—and even along the Atlantic coast.

This is because people in those countries can only remain secure if the whole of Europe sends a clear signal that Russia has no chance of success—neither in the borderlands nor further west—thanks to overwhelming support available to frontline countries like the Baltics, should it ever be necessary.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia

Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

Now that Finland has withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines, it is time to take practical action. This means starting Finnish production of anti-personnel mines for both domestic use and for Ukraine.

The reason for this is, of course, the military threat posed by Russia—something that can no longer be ignored since Putin’s “special operation” initiated the attempt to conquer Ukraine. This is true even though the Russians have been unable to bring the operation to completion; instead, it has become more like a Moloch’s maw, fed with the lives of Russian soldiers.

The Finnish arms industry is currently doing quite well in general. A sign of this was, for example, the clear growth in both turnover and operating profit for the defense equipment manufacturer Patria in the January–June period.

Turnover increased by around 12 percent and operating profit by as much as 35 percent. In addition, the company’s order backlog showed a modest increase. In the future, most of the growth is expected to come from the armored vehicle sector, but the company has also recently invested—based on lessons from the war in Ukraine—particularly in drone technology.

It remains to be seen whether the Finnish defense industry is experiencing a renaissance now that the country is a member of the Western defense alliance NATO and has the best preparedness in Europe to take advantage of a networked economy—something that will be a key factor in high-innovation sectors like defense in the coming years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Decides to Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty — But What Business Is It of Guterres?
The Poor Can't Afford to Buy Second-best
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

The Poor Can't Afford to Buy Second-best

The defense industry of my home country produces high-quality equipment. For example, the future standard firearms for Finnish and Swedish soldiers are expected to be based on the entirely new Sako M23 system, covering everything from assault rifles to precision weapons. When it comes to troop transport, one of the best options already available is the 6x6 armored personnel carrier, considered the best in the world and recently sold, for example, to Germany.

Still, it is clear that a country the size of Finland cannot rely solely on domestically produced weapons systems. It also needs weaponry manufactured elsewhere. Therefore, attention must be turned toward systems regarded as the best in the world in each category.

In this regard, it is significant that the Israeli Defense Forces have recently demonstrated their effectiveness in Syria, Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon. Following these displays, there can be no doubt that the armed forces of the Jewish state possess top-tier weapons systems.

This applies to both imported and domestically produced military equipment. That, in turn, means that Finland—located right next to Russia—is extremely interested in such systems. However, the security-policy-irresponsible left, which sympathizes with the Palestinians, has taken a stance against this.

The most controversial case has been the Israeli-made David’s Sling, a high-altitude air defense missile system. Its necessity has been recently demonstrated by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Given that Finland has a vastly larger and extremely dangerous neighbor, only the best available equipment should be considered for procurement—and David’s Sling systems have indeed already been ordered.

Finland is also renewing its navy, and for that purpose, both new and older vessels are being equipped with Gabriel surface-to-surface missiles from Israel. Additionally, counter-battery radars were acquired, as their necessity became apparent early on in the war in Ukraine.

Beyond these, the Finnish Defence Forces use a range of Israeli-made weapons, including Spike anti-tank and coastal missiles, Orbiter 2 mini-drones, and communication and information systems. When you're poor, you can't afford to buy second-best.

Of course, one can only hope that none of the aforementioned weapons—or others, such as the recently ordered F-35 fighters or Leopard tanks—will ever need to be used. If that turns out to be the case, it will demonstrate that a top-tier army equipped with the best weapons available is a sufficient deterrent even against an imperialist like Vladimir Putin. One would hope that this is also understood by the political left, who are still dreaming of their own fantasy world where all nations are happy and friendly.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine
Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

Could Mohammed Sinwar’s Death Mark a Turning Point Toward Peace

Israel has come under increasingly critical scrutiny in Western media due to its ongoing fight aimed at destroying the terrorist organization Hamas, a fight in which it has used questionable tactics such as blocking aid shipments and relocating populations from one place to another, even abroad. So far, however, Western criticism has not appeared to influence the actions of the Israeli military.

It is, of course, extremely unlikely that Israel will succeed in completely destroying Hamas. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that the organization’s ability to continue operating will be significantly diminished.

In this context, the reported discovery of the body of Hamas's military wing leader, Mohammed Sinwar, in a tunnel located in the grounds of a hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, is excellent news for Israelis and for all people around the world who oppose terrorism.

So far, however, the discovery has not been confirmed by either Hamas or the Israeli military, so it is still wise to hold off on major celebrations in Jerusalem or anywhere else. And to hope that Hamas will finally understand that it must release the remaining hostages and lay down its arms, so that the rebuilding of a future for the Palestinian people can, once again, begin.

In addition, all Palestinians should consider whether it might finally be time to acknowledge the facts and seek to build their future by recognizing the existence of the State of Israel and striving to establish cooperation with its Jewish residents. And to hope that such a path is still possible after nearly 80 years of ongoing hostility.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons
Understanding of Facts is Increasing in the Middle East
Western Countries Have Neither a Reason Nor a Need to Accept Asylum Seekers from Syria or Gaza

Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons

Representatives of the terrorist organization Hamas are scheduled to meet with mediators of the ceasefire negotiations in Cairo, Egypt. Perhaps for that reason, Hamas has announced that it is ready to release all remaining hostages and agree to a five-year ceasefire.

However, it refuses to give up its weapons, which has been Israel’s condition for peace. In other words, Hamas’s proposal is unlikely to have been made in earnest — although of course, I would very much hope that it were.

This led me to reflect on why Hamas insists on keeping its weapons. During the Gaza war, it has become extremely clear that their weapons are of no real use against the Israeli army, and thus the organization is completely incapable of protecting Palestinian civilians with them.

This leaves two obvious possibilities. In my view, the more likely one is that Hamas uses its weapons to maintain control over the Gaza Strip by suppressing dissent among Palestinians. The motive for holding on to power is the opportunity it provides for personal enrichment and a comfortable life.

This fact is illustrated by the enormous wealth amassed by Palestinian leaders — for example, the billions of dollars in assets owned by the family of the late Ismael Haniyeh, or Khalid Mashal’s fortune, reportedly reaching up to many billion euros. Similarly, Yahya Sinwar, who led Gaza until his death, and Mussa Abu Marzouk also had fortunes amounting to billions.

The second — though in my opinion less likely — possibility is that Hamas intends to continue using its weapons for terrorist attacks against Jews. Without significant military capability, such attacks would be reduced to sporadic stabbings and similar — repugnant yet relatively minor — actions, making it impossible for terrorists to even dream of carrying out assaults similar to that of October 7 in the future.

As a result, Hamas and its leadership might find it difficult to maintain their popularity among Palestinians. The effectiveness of terrorism is illustrated by the fact that every terror attack committed in Western countries has been wildly celebrated by many Palestinians (example).

Of course, the two possibilities I have described are not mutually exclusive. Rather, their combination provides a strong motive for refusing to surrender weapons. And naturally, there may be a variety of other reasons for retaining them as well. However, it is clear — as I have stated — that Hamas’s weapons have absolutely nothing to do with defending Palestinians from any potential threat posed by Israel. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
In Finland, the Enemy Is Clear – and Now the Truth Is Emerging for the Palestinians Too
The Complete Demilitarization of Gaza: What Would It Mean for the Palestinians?
Questions to the Winners of the Gaza War

Time for Hamas to Accept the Facts

Health authorities in Gaza have reported the deaths of at least four newborns due to hypothermia. According to UNICEF, the United Nations Children's Fund, in addition to casualties caused by Israeli strikes, children are now also dying from cold and inadequate shelter.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that yet another hospital in Gaza has ceased operations following an Israeli military operation conducted there on Friday morning. Israel has claimed the reason was that Hamas had been using the hospital as a military base, a claim Palestinians deny.

This, however, is irrelevant, as the outcome is horrifying regardless of the cause. Therefore, it must be asked: is it not finally time for Hamas to accept the facts and admit defeat in Gaza, lay down its arms, release its hostages, recognize Israel's right to exist, and begin working toward peaceful coexistence with the Jewish state?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Uncertain Horizons: Syria's Post-Assad Era
Hezbollah Uses Human Shields While the Green-Left Looks Away
A Fair Peace Proposal for Gaza