Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia

Changes in U.S. foreign policy have raised concerns about the future in Estonia. One indication of this is that former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Martin Herem, has noted that, much like before World War II, "agreements are once again being made over our heads. In Estonia, we are like small change, as the Americans might concede to Russian demands. For instance, Russia could demand that Estonia no longer hold military exercises with more than 5,000 troops."

Additionally, he pointed out the fact that "we are unable to defend ourselves alone, which is why we have needed U.S. support. We have grown accustomed to it. But as U.S. capabilities are currently diminishing, we Europeans must take matters into our own hands."

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Finnish military expert Emil Kastehelmi reinforced Herem’s perspective, noting that the Baltic states would not be able to defend themselves for long without strong external support—especially if Russia decided to exert significant military force in the region.

However, according to Kastehelmi, "small border skirmishes could likely be repelled, as long as they are merely attempts to test NATO’s eastern flank rather than a full-scale war. But if the U.S. truly withdraws from the defense of European nations more broadly, then military capabilities must be found elsewhere in the Baltics. The responsibility for defending the region would increasingly fall on European nations."

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Estonians have also turned their gaze northward to Finland, which is militarily far stronger than Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The local newspaper "Postimees" even published an article discussing the possibility of Estonia and Finland forming a federation, in which defense cooperation would be a key element. The idea itself is not new, as similar discussions took place already over 80 years ago.

However, Postimees’s vision is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, as Estonia’s current military capabilities would contribute little to Finland’s defense. Instead, it would significantly increase the risk of Finland being drawn into a conflict should Russia choose to direct military aggression south of the Gulf of Finland.

Additionally, Finland's standard of living is significantly higher than that of Estonia, which only gained independence from Soviet rule 35 years ago. A federation would likely lead to a costly situation for Estonians as raising prices, while Finnish taxpayers would end up financing economic transfers to the southern part of the union. This would pose practical economic challenges for both nations.

In the longer term, however, such a federation might become feasible if both Estonians and Finns support the idea. After all, Estonia’s standard of living was slightly higher than Finland’s before World War II, and there is no reason why this situation could not be restored—provided that peace prevails. And if the federation could also provide military benefits for Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Europe Needs More Money—and More Will—to Defend Itself
Elections in Georgia and Japan: The Future of Democracy on Different Paths
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?