According to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Finnish Black Bird Group, Ukraine's attack on Kursk has resulted in Russian forces advancing approximately ten kilometers in the Donetsk region. Therefore, Ukrainians should consider repositioning their troops from the Russian side to the Donetsk area.
This reminded me of Finland’s situation in 1944. At that time, the Finnish Army controlled vast areas north of Lake Ladoga in Russian East Karelia, and there was reluctance to relinquish these territories, as they were thought to have potential as bargaining chips in peace negotiations to end World War II.
As a result, Finland's military strength on the front south of Lake Ladoga—in the Karelian Isthmus—was left insufficient. This became evident when the Soviet Union launched a massive offensive from the direction of Leningrad (St. Petersburg) on June 9.
Consequently, Finland’s defensive lines quickly collapsed, and the Russians advanced about a hundred kilometers within ten days. Simultaneously, the Finns hastily shifted their forces from East Karelia to the area between Lake Ladoga and the Baltic sea.
With this repositioning—and support from the German air force—the Finns ultimately managed to halt the Soviet strategic offensive in the battles of Tali-Ihantala, Äyräpää-Vuosalmi, and the Bay of Viipuri. They even stopped the Red Army’s attack north of Lake Ladoga in the Battle of Ilomantsi, where the Soviets were eventually forced to retreat in panic.
As a result of these battles, Finland retained its independence and a Western societal structure after World War II, unlike other Soviet border states. By the 1970s, Finland had developed into a so-called welfare state, following the model of its western neighbor, Sweden.
So, it remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will unfold. Hopefully, history will not repeat itself in such a way that the Russians advance in Donetsk as they did on the Karelian Isthmus in 1944. However, if history does repeat itself, Ukrainians must do as the Finns did in 1944: reposition their forces into new positions and decisively defeat the Russians.
It would also be helpful if the cowardly leaders of the West would allow the Ukrainians to hit deep in the Russian soil with intelligent weapons.
ReplyDeleteI agree!
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