Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger

I wrote in yesterday’s text that the expansion of Charlemagne’s empire "was possible because Charles was constantly at war and gave his enemies no time to recover." This came to my mind this morning when I read in the newspaper that the negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership had come to nothing, because representatives of the latter had left the negotiation site.

However, the Americans had already received a new negotiation proposal, in which, according to Trump, Iran had "offered a lot, but not yet enough." Nor had he yet considered continuing the war.

In my view, this is foolish, because Iran’s tactics seem as if they were designed based on the history of Charlemagne’s empire. As a result—if and when it has survived the initial attack by the United States and Israel—the aim is to prolong the ongoing peace process in order to improve and develop its own military capability.

* * *

Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that although their army was hardly able to defend itself during last summer’s attack by the USA and Israel, it has during the current military operations been able to cause considerable destruction—especially in countries allied with the USA, but also to the U.S. Air Force. This shows that Iran’s Islamist leadership has the ability to enhance the combat capability of its own army and to survive the current attack, if given the opportunity.

It therefore remains to be seen what the final outcome of the war will be. Will it turn out to be the strengthening of Islamist Iran, rather than the rise of a more moderate government or even a democracy?

* * *

That is why it has been sad to observe that Donald Trump clearly does not know world history and its lessons, but embarked on the war recklessly, without preparing for it to become bogged down in the way now seen. If this is the case, the greatest sufferers will be Iranian women, who will be subjected even more tightly to a medieval hell and killed if necessary.

But Iranians will not be the only ones to suffer; global security will also be among the losers. Iran has, after all, been known as the most significant driving force behind Islamic terrorism.

And there is no reason to doubt that it would continue on that path—indeed even more determinedly—if the political leadership of the United States and/or its military proves incapable of carrying its attack through to completion. In other words, the outcome of the war will be exactly what it currently appears to be.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Donald J. Trump 

Estonia Needs Its Own Air Force

Finland’s Air Force’s operations outside the country’s borders are restricted — in peacetime — by national regulations according to which fighters do not — without a separate decision — fly in other states’ airspace. Now, however, Estonian politician Kalev Stoicescu has asked Finland to change its practices in this respect.

The background is that Estonia itself does not have a proper air force; the defence of its airspace is handled by fighters from other NATO countries stationed at the Ämari base. In the Baltic Sea area in particular, it may happen that Finnish fighters can react to Russian border violations more quickly than those departing from Ämari.

For Finland the problem is that we have a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. That gives us more than enough to monitor — and, if necessary, to intercept — without expanding the area under surveillance to the south of the Gulf of Finland.

Therefore I am of the opinion that the Estonians would be better advised to consider establishing their own fighter fleet rather than asking the Finns for help. Of course that would be expensive, and the size of Estonia’s economy does not allow for funding a very large fleet, and so would not enable them, in a real crisis, to fend off the Russian Air Force on their own.

On the other hand, an Estonian squadron would not have to operate alone; it would rather complement the support the country already receives from NATO. Through this, Estonia’s defence of its airspace against intruders would also be substantially improved compared with the present.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power

According to the Finnish Defence Forces Commander Janne Jaakkola, “three MiG aircraft would not stand a chance against F-35 fighters, JAS Gripens or FA-18s. In that sense, there was no military threat. A rapid kinetic response would have been a mistake.”

The statement referred to MiG-31 fighters that had entered Estonian airspace, and it is understandable insofar as this aircraft type is far from new: production began back in 1979, and the first planes were delivered to the Soviet military as early as 1982. In that respect, it is rather amusing that such aircraft are still part of Putin’s active air force inventory.

* * *

The most recent MiG fighter is known as the MiG-35, which, according to its manufacturer, belongs to the so-called fifth generation of fighters, featuring stealth characteristics designed to make radar detection more difficult. However, the aircraft deployed in the war in Ukraine have—at least according to Western sources—been said to be lacking compared to their American counterparts.

The Russians, however, claim that the MiGs flown in Ukraine are still undergoing testing, so that deficiencies can be identified and corrected before mass production begins. Until then, the bulk of the Mikoyan–Gurevich fighter fleet remains the outdated MiG-31s seen over Estonia—still the fastest fighter aircraft in the world.

* * *

The obsolescence of Russia’s aircraft is naturally good news for Finland, which will soon receive its first F-35 fighters. Even the current Finnish Air Force fleet—the F-18 Hornet—is, according to the Commander, superior to the MiGs in question. That said, the Hornet is roughly from the same era as the MiG-31, its maiden flight having taken place already in 1978.

On the other hand, the MiG-31 and F-18 Hornet have never faced each other in aerial combat, so Jaakkola’s statement about the latter’s superiority is not based on combat experience but most likely only on assessments derived from technical specifications. For that reason, it should be taken with a grain of salt—though I myself believe in the superiority of Western technology over Soviet-era production.

Nor, judging by history, is there reason to doubt that Finnish pilots would be more skilled than their Russian counterparts.

* * *

Finally, it should be noted that the most well-known Russian next-generation stealth fighter is the Sukhoi-57, which has been used—and also shot down—in the war in Ukraine. In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a total of 76 such aircraft would be procured for the country’s air force by 2028.

It would be interesting to know whether our Defence Forces’ Commander also regards the newer Sukhoi and MiG-35 fighters as clearly inferior to their Western counterparts—or whether he sees them as being capable of holding their own in combat against American and European aircraft.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Kremlin’s Provocations Echo Pre-War Rhetoric on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s Russia once again tested Estonia’s air defense by sending fighter jets flying “dark” – that is, without transponders – toward Tallinn. However, the planes turned back after first Finnish and then Italian fighter jets appeared to meet them.

The details of the encounter have not been made public, so we do not know whether the mere appearance of NATO aircraft was enough to make the Russians retreat, or whether the jets had to make it clear in some way that they were serious—perhaps using some kind of signaling, or even weapons, to drive the message home.

In any case, this was the fourth such incident this year, so it cannot be dismissed as a navigational error. Rather, it was a deliberate action—and therefore a dangerous game that relies on the assumption that airspace violators will not be shot down.

* * *

The situation is, of course, extremely difficult for Estonia and for NATO’s defense as a whole. Previous airspace violations have lasted around a minute, but this time the incursion was stretched to four times that length. And as noted above, the course was set toward Tallinn.

The obvious question is whether NATO has agreed on some kind of threshold after which Russian fighters will be actively intercepted—that is, shot down, as happened recently with drones flying in Polish airspace.

Naturally, the threshold for such an action is very high, since downing aircraft would almost certainly trigger extreme military and political tension. At the same time, it is equally clear that Russian fighter jets flying dark and without permission cannot be allowed over Tallinn; they must be stopped in time, and by any means necessary if required.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether these Russian violations of Estonian airspace will continue and lengthen in the coming days and weeks—and whether they might extend into Finnish airspace as well, testing Finland’s readiness in the same way.

This possibility may be hinted at by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s claim that the Finnish government’s “façade of neutrality has fallen away,” and that a politics of retribution has “literally arisen” in our country. A similar goal also seems to be served by statements from Russia—apparently aimed at undermining Finnish unity—suggesting that Finland’s population is dissatisfied with the government, and that the absence of Russian tourists in eastern Finland has led to “population decline” and economic weakening in Southeast Finland.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these narratives resemble the kind of rhetoric the Putin regime used to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is why Finland’s—and NATO’s—communication toward Russia must be firm and unequivocal, making it clear that Russia has nothing to gain beyond its northwestern borders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Former Commander of the Finnish Defence Forces Jarmo Lindberg has commented on last night’s U.S. strikes on Iran. According to him, Trump likely achieved his objective: halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Lindberg stated that Iran does have a nuclear weapons program, even though some have doubted its existence. This is because, “nuclear enrichment facilities are not needed for normal nuclear power plant operations. The type of nuclear material used in energy-producing power plants, like those in Finland, cannot be used to make bombs. Separate enrichment plants are required to produce material suitable for nuclear warheads.”

Regarding the U.S. Air Force strike itself, Lindberg said that “a very limited strike was carried out against three specific targets—bunkers located deep inside Iran. In addition, only a small number of precision weapons were used, such as B-2 stealth bombers, MOP bombs, and cruise missiles.”

Lindberg also noted that Iran had no real chance to defend itself from the strike because Israel had crippled its air defenses by destroying radar systems and surface-to-air missile batteries. Thus, “Iran essentially had no eyes to see it coming. And even if it had seen it, it wouldn’t have had the means to intercept it.”

As for Iran’s ability to respond to the U.S. strike, Lindberg sees it as limited. Furthermore, the U.S. has prepared for possible retaliation by moving its ships away from ports near Iran, meaning “there are currently few viable targets for the ayatollahs’ military or missiles.”

Iran could also “declare the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to attack maritime traffic passing through it. Since a significant portion of the world's oil supply flows through that strait, such a move would immediately spike oil prices, which the markets would then react to.”

However, it is also certain that closing the Strait of Hormuz would lead to retaliatory actions by the United States and likely also by the United Kingdom and France—actions against which Iran has virtually no effective weapon other than fanatical religious fervor. While that could result in some kind of suicide attacks, possibly against civilian populations, “from a military standpoint, their significance is negligible.”

For this reason, Lindberg believes the greatest focus now shifts to the future of Iran’s clerical regime. In other words, “what will their reactions and fate be in a situation where the United States has entered the war.”

For my part, I hope their reaction would be a flight to Moscow and leaving power to the Iranian opposition. Or alternatively, a revolution by the opposition, followed by proper punishment of the ayatollahs for the sins of past decades.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran Exposes the Finnish Green-Left as Intellectually Dishonest or Lacking Values
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine

Russian Aircraft Violated Finnish Airspace – But What’s the Point?

The Finnish Ministry of Defence issued a terse statement reporting that a Russian aircraft had violated Finnish airspace. This was by no means the first such incident—something similar occurred most recently in late May.

Such actions are, of course, inherently irrational coming from a state that has entangled itself in a years-long war. If this were to lead to a military confrontation on Finnish territory, it would significantly complicate Russia’s position in Ukraine, as part of its armed forces would have to be redirected to a new front.

However, there appears to be little risk of that happening. The Russians seem to trust that Finland will handle the matter through diplomatic channels. In this case, that meant summoning the Russian ambassador to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, where he was given a message to take back to Moscow.

I find it difficult to understand Russia’s behavior in the Baltic region, as it yields no visible benefits. Not even testing the readiness of Finland’s air force qualifies, since the Russians have seen that many times before.

Therefore, the reasons are likely to be found in Russia’s domestic politics. Perhaps this kind of low-risk saber-rattling offers the Kremlin a sense of satisfaction—or even a narrative to present to ordinary Russians worn down by the war in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
The Downing of the Azerbaijani Plane Is a War Crime That Must Be Condemned
Finns - Among the World’s Best

No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has raised concerns among European nations. As a result, they are striving to rapidly enhance their defensive capabilities.

The latest news concerns Sweden, which has ordered 44 new Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany. In addition to purchasing new tanks, the Swedish Armed Forces have agreed to modernize approximately 70 tanks that have been in service since the 1990s.

These numbers can be compared to the Finnish Defence Forces’ equivalent arsenal. Finland’s inventory consists of 100 Leopard 2A6 and 139 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks, as well as 102 CV9030 and 110 BMP2 infantry fighting vehicles. In other words, this new investment is a significant boost to the combat capability of the Nordic countries and NATO.

Another recent development involved Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who proposed that the country allocate at least 5.5% of its GDP to defense in the future. Even with this increase, Lithuania would still spend less than five billion euros on its military preparations, compared to Russia’s defense budget of a staggering 122 billion euros.

Purchasing weapons is not enough; they must also be used effectively. That’s why it was welcome news that the Finnish Air Force is sending four F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets and 50 soldiers to Iceland to monitor its airspace. This allows Finland to develop its cooperation with NATO and ensure its capability to deploy a fighter detachment to an allied nation’s base if needed.

These actions have undoubtedly been noticed in Putin’s Russia. However, it remains unclear how they will respond. Will they resort to reckless countermeasures? Or will they finally acknowledge that Russia poses no real threat to NATO?

Unfortunately, it seems that the military objective of Vladimir Putin’s regime, even in Ukraine, is not to win the war, but to divert the public’s attention from the activities and failures of his administration. This is why it is absolutely crucial that neither Putin nor his successors see any so-called low-hanging fruit in neighboring countries—targets that might appear easy to seize.

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Finns - Among the World’s Best

In Finland, Independence Day is associated with various traditions. One of the most significant has been the reception hosted by the President, where living World War II veterans have traditionally played a central role. This year, however, they were not invited to the main celebration; instead, a separate event was organized earlier this week to honor those who saved Finland's independence.

The heroes who preserved Finland's independence during the turmoil of World War II are still remembered on television, with the screening of the war film The Unknown Soldier. The film is based on a book of the same name, which depicts the experiences of a machine gun company from 1941 to 1944.

As for me, I plan to honor the heroes who safeguarded our independence by reflecting on a few statistics about Finnish fighter pilots. These figures come from Kari Stenman's book, Finland’s Best Fighter Aces and Their Aircraft.

* * *

Among Finnish pilots, the most successful in destroying Soviet aircraft during World War II was Ilmari Juutilainen, whose exceptional skill resulted in the enemy losing a remarkable 94 aircraft. Of these, six were destroyed in a single air battle on June 30, 1944.

He reported the battle as follows: "We were on a patrol mission with eight aircraft. I led the squadron to Tali, where we encountered enemy fighters. Over Viipuri, I fired on an AC from behind, tearing off most of its rudders. It crashed at the edge of Torkkeli Park near Punaisenlähteen Square, leaving behind a mist that looked like a fuel vapor cloud."

"The fight continued toward Säiniö. Near Säiniö, I shot at another AC from behind and above, setting it on fire. It crashed between Säiniö and Karhusuo, still burning on the ground."

"I saw over 50 bombers approaching from the east, accompanied by fighters. I regrouped our planes between Juustila and Tali, where we clashed with the Russians. Over Juustila, I shot down one Yak-9, which crashed in flames. Another Yak-9, its right wing shot off, crashed in the same area."

"At one point, we protected Stukas, but after that, more Russian bombers and fighters appeared. I couldn’t get a result. Then I saw Il-2 planes without cover. I attacked sharply from the side, and one Il-2 crashed in flames into Juustila peninsula."

"At the same time, I was surrounded by La-5s. After a five-minute duel with one of them, I managed to set it on fire at an altitude of 2,000 meters. It crashed in flames 3–4 kilometers north of the Il-2 crash site along the road. My ammunition ran out, so I had to end the battle, though I still had about 10 minutes of fuel. The battle altitude ranged from 5,000 to 50 meters. My aircraft was MT457."

* * *

Juutilainen had also participated ten days earlier on June 20, 1944, the most active day of aerial combat on Finland’s front lines. On that day, Finnish pilots shot down a total of 51 Soviet aircraft in three consecutive air battles—without suffering any losses of their own.

This alone demonstrated the extraordinary skill of Finnish pilots. Further evidence lies in the overall statistics: during the Continuation War, Finnish pilots destroyed approximately 1,100 Soviet aircraft while losing only 53 of their own pilots.

Even among the best, some stood out. None of the top ten Finnish fighter aces, ranked by aerial victories, were killed during the Winter War or the Continuation War. Together, they accounted for 488 Soviet aircraft shot down.

This achievement was remarkable, especially considering that during the Winter War, Finnish fighters were largely outdated models such as the Gloster Gladiator II, Fokker D.XXI, and Fiat G.50. At the start of the Continuation War, the mainstay was the Brewster 239—a model so disliked by American pilots that they nicknamed it the "Flying Coffin." The Finnish Air Force also used a mix of captured Soviet aircraft acquired through German assistance and some Morane-Saulnier 406 fighters, which were gifted by France during the Winter War but were already obsolete before the conflict began.

The situation changed in April 1943 with the arrival of Messerschmitt Bf 109 G fighters. These aircraft allowed Finnish pilots to fully showcase their skills.

One indication of their proficiency is that thereafter, enemy pilots never managed to shoot down any Finnish bombers protected by these fighters. Moreover, unlike their German counterparts, Finnish pilots rarely damaged their Messerschmitts during takeoff, despite the aircraft being known for its challenging handling characteristics.

* * *

The exceptional skill of Finnish fighter pilots can be attributed to various factors. My guess is that it stems from similar genetic or cultural traits that have made Finns, relative to their population, the most dominant motorsport athletes in the world.

After all, this nation of five million has produced three Formula 1 World Champions and eight World Rally Champions. Furthermore, the next World Rally Championship title is highly likely to go to Kalle Rovanperä, a 24-year-old prodigy who took a sabbatical year and is arguably the most talented motorsport athlete of all time.

With these memories and reflections, I wish you—my esteemed readers—a very happy Independence Day as we celebrate 107 years of Finnish sovereignty.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago

Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

According to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Finnish Black Bird Group, Ukraine's attack on Kursk has resulted in Russian forces advancing approximately ten kilometers in the Donetsk region. Therefore, Ukrainians should consider repositioning their troops from the Russian side to the Donetsk area.

This reminded me of Finland’s situation in 1944. At that time, the Finnish Army controlled vast areas north of Lake Ladoga in Russian East Karelia, and there was reluctance to relinquish these territories, as they were thought to have potential as bargaining chips in peace negotiations to end World War II.

As a result, Finland's military strength on the front south of Lake Ladoga—in the Karelian Isthmus—was left insufficient. This became evident when the Soviet Union launched a massive offensive from the direction of Leningrad (St. Petersburg) on June 9.

Consequently, Finland’s defensive lines quickly collapsed, and the Russians advanced about a hundred kilometers within ten days. Simultaneously, the Finns hastily shifted their forces from East Karelia to the area between Lake Ladoga and the Baltic sea.

With this repositioning—and support from the German air force—the Finns ultimately managed to halt the Soviet strategic offensive in the battles of Tali-Ihantala, Äyräpää-Vuosalmi, and the Bay of Viipuri. They even stopped the Red Army’s attack north of Lake Ladoga in the Battle of Ilomantsi, where the Soviets were eventually forced to retreat in panic.

As a result of these battles, Finland retained its independence and a Western societal structure after World War II, unlike other Soviet border states. By the 1970s, Finland had developed into a so-called welfare state, following the model of its western neighbor, Sweden.

So, it remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will unfold. Hopefully, history will not repeat itself in such a way that the Russians advance in Donetsk as they did on the Karelian Isthmus in 1944. However, if history does repeat itself, Ukrainians must do as the Finns did in 1944: reposition their forces into new positions and decisively defeat the Russians.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?

The Estonian Defense Forces have begun to significantly develop their naval combat capabilities. One example of this is that the northernmost Baltic country has acquired Blue Spear anti-ship missiles this year, which can also be used against land-based targets. The range of these missiles extends from Estonian territory to areas off the coast of St. Petersburg and as far as the northern parts of Kaliningrad. Additionally, the missile's guidance system cannot be electronically disrupted.

Estonia is also accelerating its weapons, ammunition, and drone production. To facilitate this, it plans to build a defense industry park, which is expected to attract €150 million in investments within just a couple of years.

Estonia already has Korean K9 Thunder howitzers, and more are on the way. Furthermore, it has ordered Caesar howitzers from France and HIMARS rocket systems, which have proven extremely effective in Ukraine.

However, Estonia's navy is very small, and the country also lacks a proper air force. For this reason, the effectiveness of its defense forces depends heavily on the support of other NATO countries in the event of a crisis. In this regard, Finland is likely to play a key role.

Nevertheless, Finnish military historian Martti Turtola has expressed doubts about the Estonians' willingness to defend their country. This was also lacking in 1939 when the country, under pressure from the Soviet Union, signed an agreement that gave the Red Army free access to Estonia.

As a result of this decision, the Soviet Union occupied all of Estonia without resistance in 1940, and after World War II, it remained a part of the "workers' paradise" ruled by Stalin and his successors for five decades. In this sense, one can only hope that Turtola is wrong and that Estonians have learned something from their history. One would hope they would defend their country as resolutely as the Finns did in the Winter War of 1939–1940, thereby preserving their independence and Western way of life.

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A Message From and To Vladimir Putin

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated that his favorite candidate for U.S. president is Kamala Harris. He explained that she might possibly refrain from imposing sanctions against Russia.

The question, of course, is why Putin commented on the U.S. elections. Did he genuinely want to express his support for the Democratic candidate, or was he rather trying to sabotage her campaign, knowing that not many Americans trust him at all?

My guess is that it's the latter. After all, he got along quite well with Donald Trump during Trump's previous presidency and probably assumes that it would be the same during a second term. This may or may not be the case, but in any case, Harris has already declared her support for Ukraine in its struggle for survival against Russia.

Therefore, for Americans, it's safest not to listen to Vladimir Putin and to make their voting decisions based on their own considerations. This ensures – if nothing else – that Putin cannot interfere in the elections of the largest democracy in the Western world.

Here in Finland, it has been noted with satisfaction that U.S. F-35 fighter jets have landed in Finland. These are the same aircraft that the Finnish Air Force has ordered for its next fleet, and the visit of the American planes sends a message to Putin and other Russian war hawks that it’s in their best interest to keep their own fighter jets out of Finnish airspace.

The visit of the top U.S. fighter jets to Finland was beneficial for the Americans as well. This can be inferred from the statement made by a U.S. Air Force general, who said, "The opportunity to learn from our Finnish counterparts enhances our ability to rapidly deploy and operate airpower from unconventional locations and reflects the collective readiness and agility of our forces."

This is exactly how cooperation should be: mutually beneficial for both parties!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt
Joe Biden Must Step Aside, But Can a Suitable Candidate Be Found?
Did the Finnish Prime Minister promise Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine?

What Does the Failure of Hezbollah's Attack Tell Us?

The terrorist organization Hezbollah planned to send 6,000 long-range rockets and drones to Israel. Israeli intelligence apparently uncovered the organization's intentions, resulting in the Israeli Air Force conducting a preemptive strike.

As a result, Hezbollah was able to launch only 320 rockets and drones, most of which were destroyed by Israel's air defense. The outcome was therefore entirely expected.

Expected because there are no intelligent people in Hezbollah's ranks. Instead, there are hordes of fanatical Muslims who, at best, are only capable of making themselves a laughingstock. And that’s exactly what the outcome of the operation showed!

At the same time, they demonstrated that Iran also has no real capability to harm Israel in any significant way. And despite recent bluster, Iran is not going to carry out a major attack against the Jewish state.

Or if they do, it will only prove that they are some kind of monkeys, with no understanding of their own capabilities. But could anyone expect anything different from the leadership of a country whose ideology is fundamentalist Islam?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Muslim Woman's Lack of Solidarity with Iranian Women
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

The Ukrainians successfully struck the Russian airfield located near the Estonian border. As a result, several heavy Russian cargo planes were destroyed.

Russians have previously relocated a large number of their strategic bombers near the Finnish border. There they are situated much farther from Ukraine than the field targeted in this attack. Following the recent strike, it is apparent that Russia will be moving more of its air force equipment even farther from Ukraine.

Consequently, their use of air power in the ongoing war in Ukraine becomes increasingly challenging. This, in turn, improves the conditions for Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

According to Finnish military expert, general Pekka Toveri, the attack will compel Russia to significantly enhance its resources for safeguarding targets such as airports, defense industries, and even Saint Petersburg. This, too, will ease Ukrainian warfare efforts in the future as the relocated troops are diminished from the Russian forces fighting against them.

From the perspective of President Vladimir Putin's army, the attack witnessed now is unfortunate in that its defense is faltering in the southern fronts, where Ukraine has made clear advances in recent days and seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. Thus, what lies ahead is likely a shift from the almost stagnant trench warfare to a more mobile battle once again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?
Victims of Russian leaders
Russian standard of tanks

Did the Finnish Prime Minister promise Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine?

The national TV-channel of Finland showed in their main news today Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) speaking to the press, saying, "I was a bit surprised by the strong reaction it got here in certain circles at home. Perhaps this shows that elections are always around the corner. Other parties have taken some liberties, for example, putting words in my mouth that I have never said."

Of course, it is possible that someone has put words in Marin's mouth, and I will not comment on that. However, in this situation, it is important to repeat exactly what she said in Ukraine. Therefore, I will copy the central content of Marin's statement from a newspaper's article where it was published word for word.

Firstly, the Prime Minister said that "we know the schedule for our future fighter jets, how we will get them to Finland, and yes, I think we can also have a discussion about the Hornets, whether it would be possible to transfer them to Ukraine." Additionally, she stated that "Finland is in an interesting position precisely because we have made the decision on a new acquisition, and we have existing equipment and can, of course, evaluate the use of that equipment".

Based on those comments, dear reader, you can draw your own conclusions on how Marin's words are meant to be understood, and how they have been interpreted by the listeners.

In my opinion, with those words, Marin clearly and unambiguously informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people that Finland is in a position to both transfer Hornet fighter jets and is considering doing so - she even emphasized this twice.

And I can't possibly believe that Zelensky, nor his people awaiting aid, could have interpreted our Prime Minister's words in any other way. Nor do I believe that Marin intended them to be interpreted differently than how I have written.

We can only speculate on the reasons for Marin's statement. Perhaps she acted in good faith and genuinely wanted to transfer Finnish fighter planes to a people in dire straits. And perhaps she wanted to initiate a discussion on the matter domestically.

Or perhaps she has become fond of the immense admiration she has received worldwide for repeatedly taking a strong stance in support of Ukraine during the ongoing war. And maybe she thought that her interview in the midst of the war would generate more of the same - who among us hasn't enjoyed those moments in life when we have basked in someone else's expressed admiration.

The third option could be that Sanna Marin acted as the leader of the Social Democratic Party and believed that the strong support of Finns for the Ukrainian people could help her party win the elections in early April, if she promised that Finland would help where larger Western countries have hesitated. And thereby she could even get a second term as the country's most influential politician, that is, as the Prime Minister.

The situation becomes tragically comical by the fact that we don't really have anything to offer Ukraine. The Finnish Hornets will be used up in the Finnish Air Force and therefore wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine's fight against the Russians.

Former commander of the Finnish Defense Forces, General Jarmo Lindberg, tweeted about this, stating that "any retired aircraft has very few years left if everything goes according to plan. In addition, the spare parts inventory is of course being depleted, as there will be no need for parts in the future. Permission must be obtained from the USA for further use, but there is no remaining lifespan."

Unfortunately, I have to admit that while Marin gained great popularity with her internationally noticed appearance and convincing performances during the pandemic, her later period as the destroyer of national wealth and party princess has eroded my perception of her ability as Prime Minister. And this recent fighter jet opening certainly doesn't help - and I say this without any sugarcoating.

The original blogpost in Finnish: Sanasta Sannaa ja sarvesta miestä

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A gift from the free world to Ukraine
Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine