Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger

I wrote in yesterday’s text that the expansion of Charlemagne’s empire "was possible because Charles was constantly at war and gave his enemies no time to recover." This came to my mind this morning when I read in the newspaper that the negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership had come to nothing, because representatives of the latter had left the negotiation site.

However, the Americans had already received a new negotiation proposal, in which, according to Trump, Iran had "offered a lot, but not yet enough." Nor had he yet considered continuing the war.

In my view, this is foolish, because Iran’s tactics seem as if they were designed based on the history of Charlemagne’s empire. As a result—if and when it has survived the initial attack by the United States and Israel—the aim is to prolong the ongoing peace process in order to improve and develop its own military capability.

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Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that although their army was hardly able to defend itself during last summer’s attack by the USA and Israel, it has during the current military operations been able to cause considerable destruction—especially in countries allied with the USA, but also to the U.S. Air Force. This shows that Iran’s Islamist leadership has the ability to enhance the combat capability of its own army and to survive the current attack, if given the opportunity.

It therefore remains to be seen what the final outcome of the war will be. Will it turn out to be the strengthening of Islamist Iran, rather than the rise of a more moderate government or even a democracy?

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That is why it has been sad to observe that Donald Trump clearly does not know world history and its lessons, but embarked on the war recklessly, without preparing for it to become bogged down in the way now seen. If this is the case, the greatest sufferers will be Iranian women, who will be subjected even more tightly to a medieval hell and killed if necessary.

But Iranians will not be the only ones to suffer; global security will also be among the losers. Iran has, after all, been known as the most significant driving force behind Islamic terrorism.

And there is no reason to doubt that it would continue on that path—indeed even more determinedly—if the political leadership of the United States and/or its military proves incapable of carrying its attack through to completion. In other words, the outcome of the war will be exactly what it currently appears to be.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Donald J. Trump 

A Lesson for the Chinese: Never Trust the Russians

The Kyiv Independent reported on Chinese nationals who fought for Russia against Ukraine – and were subsequently captured. According to them, they had voluntarily enlisted in the Russian army.

One of them explained that a recruiter had told him that a Chinese person joining the Russian military could earn 200,000–250,000 Russian rubles per month (about €2,100–2,600), which is more than the average wage in China. The recruiter also promised to pay for his travel to Russia and help him obtain the necessary documents.

The Chinese man didn’t know any Russians personally, so he believed the promises. Instead of receiving the promised income, however, the Russians confiscated his bank card and phone, leaving him unable to access his earnings. He also reported that he had been targeted by Russian “chemical weapons” right after being captured by Ukrainian soldiers.

In the end, it was the Ukrainians who saved his life and have treated both captured men well ever since. As a result, they sent a message to their fellow countrymen, saying that everything they had heard from the Russians was a lie. It turned out that Russia wasn’t as strong, and Ukraine wasn’t as weak as they had been told. Therefore, it’s better not to take part in any wars at all.

Hopefully, Chinese citizens will take the message from these prisoners seriously and avoid being lured into Putin’s army by Russia’s empty promises. At best, one might come out of it alive — but even that is unlikely.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia
Massive Blow to Russian Artillery: Ukraine Claims 1,644 Pieces Destroyed in March
Russian Fake News vs. Reality

Strengthening Christmas Market Security: Lessons from Magdeburg

The motive for the Magdeburg terrorist attack remains unclear, and I will not address it in this text. Instead, I wonder how it was even possible for a vehicle to access the market area. After all, the security measures for Christmas markets had been recognized as extremely important in Germany ever since a similar attack in Berlin in 2016, when a man drove a truck into a market and killed 12 people.

For this reason, large concrete barriers had also been placed around the square in Magdeburg. However, a gap was left between the barriers for emergency vehicles, and it was through this gap that the terrorist managed to get through. This was done to ensure an evacuation route for a "conventional" emergency situation.

Of course, at this point, this sounds utterly foolish—as it undoubtedly is. Hopefully, it is now understood that the security measures for Christmas markets must prevent all types of vehicles from accessing the area, while providing a guarded and controlled access point for emergency vehicles, which is only opened when absolutely necessary.

This should also be implemented in countries other than Germany, including Finland and other nations where such terrorist attacks have never occurred.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Terrorism Landscape in the EU Contradicts the Narrative Presented by EU Politicians and Media
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
Cancellation of Taylor Swift's Concert in Austria Was a Success for the Terrorists

Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine

Russia's attack on Ukraine seems to have stalled. The reason for this is likely both the weakness of the Russians and the increase in aid Ukraine is receiving from Western countries.

In this regard, it was interesting to note that Finland has sent both older equipment and the latest products of its defense industry to Ukraine. The reason for the latter is to gather information about their effectiveness in a combat situation, especially against the Russians.

The fact remains that no one other than Russia threatens Finland's security. However, Russia's enthusiasm may be curbed by the harsh experiences of World War II -including both Winter War and Continuation War during which nearly half a million Russian soldiers were killed or went missing on the Finnish front, and even more were wounded. And in the end, the small nation of Finland remained unconquered by the then-superpower.

Hopefully, the recent change in the war in Ukraine means that the Russians will experience bitter lessons similar to those on the Finnish front in World War II, and the country's leadership will learn such a lesson that it will understand to leave its neighbors untouched in the future. It would be wise for the simple reason that now there is equipment tested specifically against them, the effectiveness of which should be beyond doubt, as the weapon systems will undoubtedly be further developed based on the experiences gained from the war in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen
The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare