Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger

I wrote in yesterday’s text that the expansion of Charlemagne’s empire "was possible because Charles was constantly at war and gave his enemies no time to recover." This came to my mind this morning when I read in the newspaper that the negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership had come to nothing, because representatives of the latter had left the negotiation site.

However, the Americans had already received a new negotiation proposal, in which, according to Trump, Iran had "offered a lot, but not yet enough." Nor had he yet considered continuing the war.

In my view, this is foolish, because Iran’s tactics seem as if they were designed based on the history of Charlemagne’s empire. As a result—if and when it has survived the initial attack by the United States and Israel—the aim is to prolong the ongoing peace process in order to improve and develop its own military capability.

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Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that although their army was hardly able to defend itself during last summer’s attack by the USA and Israel, it has during the current military operations been able to cause considerable destruction—especially in countries allied with the USA, but also to the U.S. Air Force. This shows that Iran’s Islamist leadership has the ability to enhance the combat capability of its own army and to survive the current attack, if given the opportunity.

It therefore remains to be seen what the final outcome of the war will be. Will it turn out to be the strengthening of Islamist Iran, rather than the rise of a more moderate government or even a democracy?

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That is why it has been sad to observe that Donald Trump clearly does not know world history and its lessons, but embarked on the war recklessly, without preparing for it to become bogged down in the way now seen. If this is the case, the greatest sufferers will be Iranian women, who will be subjected even more tightly to a medieval hell and killed if necessary.

But Iranians will not be the only ones to suffer; global security will also be among the losers. Iran has, after all, been known as the most significant driving force behind Islamic terrorism.

And there is no reason to doubt that it would continue on that path—indeed even more determinedly—if the political leadership of the United States and/or its military proves incapable of carrying its attack through to completion. In other words, the outcome of the war will be exactly what it currently appears to be.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Donald J. Trump 

Russian Strategy to Take Control Over the USA and the World Has Succeeded Shockingly Well So Far

Two days ago, Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, rolled back its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, joining a growing list of major corporations that have done the same after facing criticism from conservative activists. Even before this, companies such as Ford, Harley-Davidson, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply had already taken similar steps.

This reminded me of a strategy described in the recent book by Finnish top communication professionals Markku Mantila and Jouni Mölsä, which the Russians have allegedly used to influence Western nations. According to them, a Russian defector, Yuri Bezmenov, revealed back in 1984 that the Soviet Union’s goal was to alter the perception of reality in the United States to the extent that its population would no longer be able to draw rational conclusions about the reality surrounding them.

The first stage of this strategy was demoralization, which involved steering students toward Marxist-Leninist thinking. According to Bezmenov, this phase was already complete 40 years ago. 

In the next stage, lasting about 20 years and referred to as destabilization, the Russians’ aim was (in Bezmenov's time, "would be") to increase disagreements between different groups in the United States. As examples of destabilizing themes, he mentioned homosexuality as well as women’s and children’s rights—translated into today’s language, themes that have gained traction in recent years through DEI policies.

The third stage in the Russian strategy is the crisis phase, in which citizens look for saviors by demanding strong leaders and governments, while expressing their discontent with societal chaos.

According to Bezmenov's ideas from 40 years ago, the Russians’ ultimate goal is "normalization", which refers to a situation similar to what happened after the Prague Spring in 1968, when Czechoslovakia was ruled by a puppet government installed by the Soviet Union, subordinate to Moscow and receiving its instructions from there.

All of this is detailed in Mantila and Mölsä’s book. From my perspective, it seems that the Russians have shockingly succeeded in achieving the goals of the first two phases. However, it remains to be seen what the collapse of corporations and, subsequently, DEI policies will lead to.

In this matter, ordinary Americans play a decisive role. Will the resistance faced by DEI deepen societal polarization, eventually leading to the crisis Bezmenov described? Or is this merely part of an ideological shift, one that is leaving DEI policies behind and, in doing so, discarding Russia’s long-term objectives into the trash bin of history?

Finally, I conclude that it would be beneficial for American (and Western) politicians to equip their citizens with the means to counter Russian hybrid influence. In this regard, it is particularly important to ensure a strong foundation of basic knowledge through quality education, the reliability of the political system, the adherence of information channels to facts rather than fostering political discord, and the media literacy of citizens. 

Strengthening social cohesion and fostering a sense of community could also play a vital role in making societies more resilient to external manipulation. And cooperation between Western nations is equally crucial, as countering hybrid threats often requires a unified response and shared strategies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Swedish TV Did Not Learn Anything From the Riots in the UK
Defending National Security: Finland's Response to Hybrid Warfare

Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

According to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Finnish Black Bird Group, Ukraine's attack on Kursk has resulted in Russian forces advancing approximately ten kilometers in the Donetsk region. Therefore, Ukrainians should consider repositioning their troops from the Russian side to the Donetsk area.

This reminded me of Finland’s situation in 1944. At that time, the Finnish Army controlled vast areas north of Lake Ladoga in Russian East Karelia, and there was reluctance to relinquish these territories, as they were thought to have potential as bargaining chips in peace negotiations to end World War II.

As a result, Finland's military strength on the front south of Lake Ladoga—in the Karelian Isthmus—was left insufficient. This became evident when the Soviet Union launched a massive offensive from the direction of Leningrad (St. Petersburg) on June 9.

Consequently, Finland’s defensive lines quickly collapsed, and the Russians advanced about a hundred kilometers within ten days. Simultaneously, the Finns hastily shifted their forces from East Karelia to the area between Lake Ladoga and the Baltic sea.

With this repositioning—and support from the German air force—the Finns ultimately managed to halt the Soviet strategic offensive in the battles of Tali-Ihantala, Äyräpää-Vuosalmi, and the Bay of Viipuri. They even stopped the Red Army’s attack north of Lake Ladoga in the Battle of Ilomantsi, where the Soviets were eventually forced to retreat in panic.

As a result of these battles, Finland retained its independence and a Western societal structure after World War II, unlike other Soviet border states. By the 1970s, Finland had developed into a so-called welfare state, following the model of its western neighbor, Sweden.

So, it remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will unfold. Hopefully, history will not repeat itself in such a way that the Russians advance in Donetsk as they did on the Karelian Isthmus in 1944. However, if history does repeat itself, Ukrainians must do as the Finns did in 1944: reposition their forces into new positions and decisively defeat the Russians.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

Vandalism in Northern Sweden - But Who Is Responsible?

Sweden is becoming quite well known for the crime caused by immigrants—drug trafficking, gang shootings, sending children to neighboring countries to commit crimes, rapes, and so on. However, I believe that the case that has now come to light is about something else.

In northern Sweden’s Kiruna, four drilling machines that were used to explore a mineral deposit have been vandalized. The damage was discovered on Friday, and a police report has been filed.

The vandalism occurred in an area where iron ore and critical minerals were recently found. The damaged machines, located in the forest, were used for drilling. The water hoses and tires have been slashed, and the fuel cans have been emptied.

After the incident, LKAB, the company responsible for the drilling, has strengthened the protection of the drilling machines and contacted the Swedish Security Service. The reason for this is that the area holds strategic importance, as the work done there is part of the EU's critical minerals strategy.

It remains to be seen whether the perpetrators of the sabotage are Swedish or from elsewhere. Personally, I suspect that it might very well be forces taking orders from the east, those currently waging one of the most foolish wars in world history against Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
How naive can the world's most intelligent people be?
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime