Today, we’ll be hearing politically charged speeches from the leaders of various Finnish parties on current issues—which, of course, is above all entertaining.
But the most significant May Day event was likely already reported early this morning.
I am, of course, referring to the fact that the United States and Ukraine have indeed signed a mineral agreement. According to the deal, the U.S. and Ukraine will establish a joint investment fund intended, among other things, to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and to facilitate investments related to Ukraine’s natural resources.
The agreement explicitly states that Russia initiated the war, enables U.S. military aid to the victim of the aggression, and recognizes Ukraine’s right to control the minerals within its territory. At the same time, it offers Americans the opportunity to invest in Ukrainian mineral assets through the newly created fund.
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, “The United States is committed to helping end this cruel and senseless war. This agreement sends a clear message to Russia that the Trump administration is dedicated to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, for his part, described the agreement as “good, fair, and favorable.” And there’s no reason to doubt that he meant what he said.
It remains to be seen how this new agreement will influence American realpolitik regarding the war in Ukraine. In other words, will it lead to increased or decreased military and diplomatic engagement by the U.S. on Ukraine’s behalf?
On one hand, it could be argued that since Americans now have a deal concerning Ukraine’s natural resources, their interest in ensuring those resources remain under their partner’s control may grow. That could even lead to actions aimed at liberating at least the most mineral-rich areas currently occupied by Russia.
On the other hand, it’s equally possible that the U.S. and President Donald Trump will begin pressuring Ukraine to make peace at any cost, in order to begin exploiting the deal quickly. In the worst case, this might take the form of increased pressure on President Zelensky’s government to accept peace terms reflecting the current front lines—playing into Putin’s hands.
At this stage, the only thing that’s clear is that the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase, one that will most likely differ in nature from what we’ve seen so far. One can only hope that, at least from a European perspective, it doesn’t take a turn for the worse—that is, in favor of the Russians.
In that regard, it sounds particularly encouraging that Bessent also stated that “no entity that financed or equipped Russia’s war machine will benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction project.”
It’s as if Trump’s Ukraine policy made a complete U-turn overnight—but let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. Instead, for now, let’s focus on May Day traditions."
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
May Day Reflections from a President—and a Student
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War
Should Finland Heed the Warnings of a Left-Wing Idealist?
