Estonia Needs Its Own Air Force

Finland’s Air Force’s operations outside the country’s borders are restricted — in peacetime — by national regulations according to which fighters do not — without a separate decision — fly in other states’ airspace. Now, however, Estonian politician Kalev Stoicescu has asked Finland to change its practices in this respect.

The background is that Estonia itself does not have a proper air force; the defence of its airspace is handled by fighters from other NATO countries stationed at the Ämari base. In the Baltic Sea area in particular, it may happen that Finnish fighters can react to Russian border violations more quickly than those departing from Ämari.

For Finland the problem is that we have a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. That gives us more than enough to monitor — and, if necessary, to intercept — without expanding the area under surveillance to the south of the Gulf of Finland.

Therefore I am of the opinion that the Estonians would be better advised to consider establishing their own fighter fleet rather than asking the Finns for help. Of course that would be expensive, and the size of Estonia’s economy does not allow for funding a very large fleet, and so would not enable them, in a real crisis, to fend off the Russian Air Force on their own.

On the other hand, an Estonian squadron would not have to operate alone; it would rather complement the support the country already receives from NATO. Through this, Estonia’s defence of its airspace against intruders would also be substantially improved compared with the present.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Last Thursday, the Israeli armed forces killed Yemen’s Houthi administration Prime Minister Ahmed Ghalib al-Rahawi, Foreign Minister Jamal Amer, and ten other ministers — more than half of Yemen’s government members — in a precise airstrike. Such an outcome is undeniably impressive, and it could not have arisen by chance as if in a fairytale.

In this case too, the strike was preceded by weeks of intelligence gathering involving around 200 military intelligence professionals. The group worked in a secret bunker located in Israel and also included representatives of the United States military.

The actual attack was carried out by Israeli fighter jets just a few hours after the intelligence team had confirmed the meeting place of the Yemeni government. At that moment, the Yemeni ministers had just gathered to listen to the speech of spiritual and military leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who, fortunately for him, was speaking via remote connection and thus preserved his life.

For the time being, the broader impact of the successful strike remains uncertain, but it seems that the Houthi administration is trying to hold on to its position. In doing so, its members are taking an enormous risk of another Israeli and U.S. strike, which, if successful, could cost them their lives. In any case, it is clear that the intelligence services of these states will do their utmost to succeed again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Will Gaza Get a Ceasefire, or Will Hamas Hold On to Its Terrorist Capabilities?

Hamas had already announced earlier that it was ready for a ceasefire in the Gaza war. According to the Islamic Jihad organization, it would be prepared to release ten Israeli hostages alive, as well as the bodies of deceased individuals.

Israel took longer to respond to the ceasefire proposal. According to today’s report, it too is ready for a ceasefire in Gaza, but only on the condition that Hamas releases all the remaining 49 hostages.

In other words, Israel shifted the decision on the ceasefire back to Hamas, which in turn must consider its own position regarding the demand of the Jewish state. The central question is whether the terrorist organization will agree to relinquish its only effective means of pressure against Israel in order to initiate the peace process in Gaza.

For Hamas and the residents of Gaza, the situation is extremely difficult, as the latter are suffering disproportionately from the terrorists’ determination to preserve their armed forces—which, though militarily insignificant, are sufficient for the purposes of terrorism—in this situation. Hamas’s leadership is also under pressure from Israel, which more than a week ago declared that it was preparing for a new ground offensive aimed at destroying the remainder of Hamas’s underground facilities.

For these reasons, I greatly fear that the residents of Gaza will still not be able to enjoy peace, as Hamas’s leadership will once again put its own survival ahead of an ordinary, livable life for the people. But since nothing has yet been decided, we can still hope that reason will prevail, that peace will finally come to Gaza, and that Hamas will either be dismantled or at least lose its significance as a major player in the Middle East.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Denies Blanket Asylum for Gazans, Confirms Tighter Immigration Policies
New Framework for Post-Hamas Gaza
Hamas at a Crossroads: Are Weapons More Important Than Gaza Belonging to the Palestinians?

Ukraine’s Former Foreign Minister Warns Against Another 1939

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba gave an interview to the British magazine Metro, where he reminded mothers in Britain that they will soon have to decide whether they will send their sons to fight against Russian soldiers in Europe, or suffer the end of NATO.

The Ukrainian politician also painted a devil on the wall by predicting that “Putin may invade Nato territory soon – so now what? Is Nato going to send a division to fight back?”

According to him, “The first day the EU – which is no big bother to England – is going to spend discussing its response to Russia, is going to be the end of it,” and continued, “the real test will be whether British mothers will actually accept that their sons have to die for Finland or Estonia or Poland. If they don’t, there is no NATO.”

Kuleba also noted an analogy to the year 1939 by reminding that “This is how World War II started. 'Why fight for Danzig? Let’s give it to Hitler, it is just a city in Poland. Why should we die for it?’”

At the same time, the foreign ministers Joachim von Ribbentrop and Vyacheslav Molotov had agreed on a pact according to which Finland, the Baltic countries, and the eastern part of Poland would be turned into Russian territory. As a consequence, all those areas ended up as parts of the Soviet Union for seven decades — except Finland, which decided to fight for its independence and saved 90% of its territory in the Winter War.

Even though that war is considered a miracle, it is not an honour for the French and the British, who had promised to help Finland in many ways. Namely, they made many promises but ended up fulfilling only a small fraction of them regarding military material, and completely refused to send armed forces despite talks that those would also be sent via Norway and Sweden.

Based on this history from my grandparents’ generation, I certainly hope that history will not repeat itself — but that the difference will be an active NATO upholding its Article 5, and accordingly taking care of the agreed arrangements. And that it would show Kuleba that today’s Western Europe and the USA are more reliable pillars of European security than the Western powers of the late 1930s.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans
Should Finland Heed the Warnings of a Left-Wing Idealist?
Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia

The Price of a Dictator’s Stupidity and Megalomania

What happens when you combine the stupidity and megalomania of a short-statured dictator? Everyone can ponder the answer based on the fact that Russia has recently modernized its military bases, including nuclear missile silos.

To achieve this, it has built several kilometers of underground tunnels, hundreds of barracks, command centers, and storage facilities. In addition, Russian companies linked to the armed forces have stored related documents in public databases.

As a result, Der Spiegel and Danwatch managed to obtain around two million documents, including blueprints of the new bases. In this way, the most closely guarded secrets of Putin's armed forces were exposed to Western defense forces.

This was a major victory for the West and an unfortunate blow to Vladimir Putin. However, from his point of view, the damage can be limited by preventing any related information from reaching the Russian public. That, however, does not undo the damage already done to Putin's armed forces.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
It’s Time to Teach Putin: The Age of Empire Is Over
Fear Lurks in Vladimir Putin's Mind as He Celebrates on the Wrong Date
When the War Comes Home to Moscow