When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes

According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine has carried out a drone strike more than 2,000 kilometers beyond its border. The target was an oil refinery in Tyumen, Russia, which was reportedly damaged in the attack.

Regardless of the extent of the damage, the incident is significant in that it demonstrates that Russian infrastructure is increasingly within Ukraine’s reach. Consequently, Russia’s war economy is becoming ever more vulnerable — just as Vladimir Putin turns 73.

For example, fuel shortages in many regions of Russia are already severe and are making civilian life difficult. One can only imagine how the situation will unfold in the coming months, with homes left unheated as temperatures drop to –20 or even –30 degrees Celsius.

For this reason, there now appears to be considerable potential in the air for an uprising to ignite. And this seems enough for Putin to be paying very close attention to his own security.

This is underlined by reports that even Vyacheslav Leontyev, the 87-year-old former publisher of Pravda, the leading newspaper of the Soviet Union, is said to have fallen from the window of his fifth-floor apartment in western Moscow. The man is believed to have been well informed about the secret wealth of Russia’s elite — undoubtedly including Putin himself — the existence of which is unlikely to provide much comfort to ordinary Russians facing the coming winter’s cold.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine is becoming ever more visible in Russia. Fresh examples of this include the derailment of two trains in the Leningrad region and a drone strike on the Primorsk (Koivisto) oil terminal, which has left Russian oil exports from this port still suspended.

According to a social media account called The War Action, during the past August Ukraine struck 22 oil- and gas-related facilities, 12 railway infrastructure targets, six defense industry companies, three ports and warehouses, and two airports. As a result, this month ten Russian regions have faced such severe fuel shortages that some independent gas stations shut down entirely—and where operations continue, gasoline prices have risen.

At the same time, the balance of power on the battlefield has shifted. For instance, near Dobropillia, Ukrainian armed forces units have advanced west of Volodymyrivka. Several Russian detachments remain encircled near Kucheriv Yar—and even the reinforcements sent to assist them are themselves facing encirclement.

If these developments continue, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s dictator will begin to weaken. His situation is made no easier by the fact that Donald Trump has called on all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia, to impose tougher sanctions against it, and to levy 50–100 percent import tariffs on China.

As a carrot, Trump has offered that if all his demands are met, the United States will also be ready to impose major sanctions against Russia—thereby forcing Vladimir Putin to end his special operation, or at least compelling the Russian people to rid themselves of their dictator.

Putin’s difficult situation is also evident from the fact that even Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko has begun to distance himself from his regime. This was seen, for example, when Belarusian authorities warned the Poles about drones that had recently crossed the border through Belarusian airspace.

Or what do you think, my dear reader? Could all this be a sign that Vladimir Vladimirovich’s countdown has now begun? Or am I just dreaming?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Last Thursday, the Israeli armed forces killed Yemen’s Houthi administration Prime Minister Ahmed Ghalib al-Rahawi, Foreign Minister Jamal Amer, and ten other ministers — more than half of Yemen’s government members — in a precise airstrike. Such an outcome is undeniably impressive, and it could not have arisen by chance as if in a fairytale.

In this case too, the strike was preceded by weeks of intelligence gathering involving around 200 military intelligence professionals. The group worked in a secret bunker located in Israel and also included representatives of the United States military.

The actual attack was carried out by Israeli fighter jets just a few hours after the intelligence team had confirmed the meeting place of the Yemeni government. At that moment, the Yemeni ministers had just gathered to listen to the speech of spiritual and military leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who, fortunately for him, was speaking via remote connection and thus preserved his life.

For the time being, the broader impact of the successful strike remains uncertain, but it seems that the Houthi administration is trying to hold on to its position. In doing so, its members are taking an enormous risk of another Israeli and U.S. strike, which, if successful, could cost them their lives. In any case, it is clear that the intelligence services of these states will do their utmost to succeed again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me

The war between Ukraine and Russia came unusually close to me last night, as I observed strange light phenomena in the southeastern sky—things I had never seen before in my life.

In the morning, I checked the news feed and noticed that Ukraine had carried out a strike on Russia’s Luga Bay, not far from Finland, where its drones—according to Russian officials—ignited Novatek’s terminal specializing in natural gas production. It seems clear that the light phenomena I saw in Finland were connected to that very event.

* * *

During the night, the Ukrainian armed forces had also struck an oil refinery in Syzran, in the Samara region—further continuation of the attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Best of all, these strikes appear to be having consequences for Russia and the Russian people.

Namely, wholesale gasoline prices have risen on the St. Petersburg exchange by nearly ten percent just this month—and over the course of this year, the price has increased by as much as fifty percent. This price surge is also being felt in the wallets of Russian consumers and worsens the already high inflation, meaning the general rise in the cost of living.

And that’s not all: production disruptions at oil refineries have also affected the availability of gasoline in Russia. This too has an impact on ordinary Russians’ daily lives—which, I hope, will lead them to realize the harmfulness of Vladimir Putin’s war policy for themselves and for the Russian people as a whole. And to rise up against his government and its imperialist policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
Suicide and Sudden Death in Russia – What's Really Going On?

Finnair Pilots' Actions Spark Employer Countermove

Finnair is a Finnish airline whose pilots have recently engaged in various industrial actions, such as standby duty bans, leading to flight cancellations. The underlying reason for these actions is their demand for significant pay raises, as the pilots had previously accepted salary cuts to help save their employer, which had fallen into heavy losses.

However, the pilots now have something new to consider, as Finnair has announced the start of negotiations regarding pilot layoffs. The reason for this is an arrangement in which Finnair had leased two of its A330 aircraft, along with their crews, to a partner company. Finnair pilots have been operating flights on these aircraft from Bangkok and Singapore to Sydney.

According to Finnair, this arrangement has allowed the airline to put its A330 aircraft to productive use and provide work for around 90 pilots, even though, with Russian airspace closed, there would not have been enough demand for these aircraft otherwise. Despite this, the pilots' union has now expanded its industrial actions to include the critical Bangkok and Singapore flights, as well as the Sydney flights operated for the partner company.

As a result, Finnair is no longer able to operate these partnership flights reliably and has therefore started discussions with its partner regarding next steps, which include the possibility of terminating the agreement—and consequently laying off the pilots involved in these operations. It remains to be seen how the pilots' union will respond to this development.

In my view, there are three possible outcomes. Either the pilots call off their industrial actions related to this partnership, abandon their push for significant pay raises to save those at risk of being laid off, or—what I consider the most likely scenario—the situation escalates even further. At this stage, one thing is clear: the labor dispute is being played with stakes so unusual that such a situation has rarely been seen in Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Do Finns have the patience?
Why Can't Finland Find Workforce?
A nurse´s question: who deserves health care, and who does not

Uncertain Horizons: Syria's Post-Assad Era

Israel destroyed the Syrian army’s equipment in swift strikes following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, as the previously Islamist-designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) assumed power.

In practical terms, this means that the armaments of the Syrian dictatorship, including chemical weapons of mass destruction, will not fall into the hands of a new government, which may turn out to be an Islamist rogue state.

In this light, one might imagine that the entire world would be pleased with Israel’s actions. On the other hand, Israel’s operations contradict general principles of justice, which dictate that the law should apply equally to all. The same should hold true at the state level, meaning that Israel’s actions appear as nothing more than the unlawful use of force by the stronger party.

It is therefore clear that opponents of the Jewish state have gained yet another justification for their hatred toward it—and even a seemingly legitimate basis for actions against it in international forums such as the UN.

It is thus to be expected that the value-liberal left in Western countries will exploit this development to support Hamas terrorists in their fight in Gaza. At the same time, they will conveniently forget that the entire Gaza war began with Hamas’s terrorist attack and has only continued because the group has refused to disarm or release the hostages it took in October of last year.

* * *

When power shifted in Syria, Israel also occupied the demilitarized zone between it and Syria. Furthermore, it has advanced somewhat into the part of Syria inhabited by Druze communities.

The world was simultaneously surprised by the fact that, following these events, the Syrian Druze neither fled nor mounted resistance but instead declared their desire to become part of Israel. This indicates that this religious minority does not trust its future under the rule of Syria's new leaders.

This development is unlikely to sit well with Syria's new government. Should Israel fulfill the Druze community's wish, it could lay the groundwork for HTS to become a more fundamentalist organization—ultimately transforming into a rogue state similar to Iran or Afghanistan.

At this stage, however, it is virtually impossible to predict what will ultimately happen in Syria. Some have even suggested dividing the country into three parts, with HTS governing the central region, the Kurds holding power in the northeast, and either Israel or the Druze themselves controlling the southwestern corner.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Need for Asylum Among Syrians Disappeared with the Regime Change
On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria
Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?

A nurse´s question: who deserves health care, and who does not

In Finland there has been a long debate about nurse salaries. Those were raised considerably in 2008, which contributed considerably to the slow recovery of Finland from the Great Recession that was seen globally in 2007-2009. 

Despite that, the Finnish nurses are again on strike for their salaries, which they consider as left behind from other fields in the public sector. The employer´s representative somehow agree on the problem, but has also pointed out that there is no taxpayer´s money available to cover exceptional increases. However, most of the ordinary citizens support higher wages for the nurses, probably because many nurses leave their profession and nurse salaries are in other Nordic countries higher compared to Finland.

The strikes may turn long lasting, as the public sector of Finland has been running quickly into debt because of the loose economics policy in Finland and EU during the last years as well as additional costs due to the COVID-19 pandemic and consequences of the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.

Very interestingly indeed, I saw today something I could not have imagined. It was a short story by the MTV3-media, in which a former nurse put the cat on the table. She said loudly the main problem of public health care in the modern democracies by pointing out that "now either the government or the employer has to say who no longer deserves care".

This is The Question, because the problem arises from the development of medical research, which continuously develops solutions to new health problems - and often they are very expensive. That leads to ever increasing costs of health care, and sooner or later - perhaps right now in Finland - the costs exceed the taxpayers ability to pay. 

So, it will be interesting to follow what happens next. Will the nurse´s comment make its way to political discussion or will it be quietly passed. Also, will the nurse be demonized on her "inhuman opinion", or will it be admitted that she has a valid point. 

It is, however clear that deciding on who will be treated from her disease and who will not is a question which is almost impossible to touch by politicians. Whatever they say or decide will raise a loud voice against them. And as well known, keeping voters happy is a serious concern for anyone who depends on the number of supporting votes in a free democracy.  

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
American black population more vulnerable to the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2