Putin's Endgame: Deception, Escalation, or Death?

According to Finnish media, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters yesterday evening that Russia had completely captured the Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka. Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) disputed the claim, stating that while Russian forces have made tactical gains in Kostiantynivka, "the majority of the Russian presence in the town consists of small infiltration groups scattered among Ukrainian positions."

ISW argued that Peskov's exaggerated statements were intended to shape Western media coverage of the war over the weekend, when the United States is celebrating its 250th anniversary. It therefore remains to be seen whether Russia's so-called "special military operation" has genuinely advanced or whether the claims about capturing Kostiantynivka are simply another example of Kremlin propaganda.

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Columnist Lauri Nurmi, for his part, speculated that Vladimir Putin could ultimately meet the same fate as Nicolae Ceaușescu. In doing so, he echoed a point I made some time ago when I argued that Putin would have no political future if Russia were to return from Ukraine having suffered defeat.

Admittedly, it is difficult to follow developments in the war in Ukraine—as the Kostiantynivka case illustrates—because both sides are accompanied by actors spreading disinformation. This is particularly true on social media, where anyone can publish virtually anything.

In any event, it has long been evident that Putin's three-day "special military operation" has fared no better than Stalin's Red Army's planned "two-week march to Helsinki" in 1939. For that reason, it is possible—perhaps even likely—that Putin will eventually have to announce at least a partial mobilization.

The consequences can only be guessed. What is certain, however, is that if compulsory mobilization is implemented, many more Russian families will lose sons, husbands, and fathers. It is difficult to imagine that those affected would thank their country's leader. At the very least, many of them might privately entertain thoughts similar to those expressed by Nurmi—or by myself.

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This may also help explain why the Russian dictator has reportedly been pressuring his Belarusian counterpart to join the war. Such a move could serve two purposes at once: perhaps fewer Russians would be killed in combat, while Ukraine's military position would become more difficult as the front line expanded.

On the other hand, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka undoubtedly understands that Ukrainians would not simply surrender. They would resist with everything they have, increasing the number of Belarusian families mourning fallen relatives.

That, in turn, would heighten the risk of a coup—or at least serious unrest—in a country where dissatisfaction with his rule has existed for years. For that reason, he is likely to continue accommodating Putin in almost every respect except one: sending Belarusian troops across the southern border into Ukraine.

If Putin ultimately succeeds in forcing Belarus into the war, Europe would face a serious test. Would we merely express outrage, or would we take concrete action? Something more substantial than words and continued deliveries of material assistance to Ukraine?

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Adding to these concerns are speculations that the Russian military could launch a strike against Poland via Belarus or Kaliningrad, disguising it as an "accidental" incident. Such scenarios make the overall situation appear even more serious and Europe's security environment increasingly precarious.

The most troubling question is that we do not know how nuclear-armed Russia would respond if it continued to struggle in conventional warfare. Could it resort to its most powerful weapons if its position in Ukraine deteriorated further and Belarus refused to intervene on its behalf?

And what if Polish forces were to destroy a Russian unit that had crossed the border under the guise of a "mistake"? How would Russia respond? And how would Western leaders react?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War
Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?

Finnair Pilots' Actions Spark Employer Countermove

Finnair is a Finnish airline whose pilots have recently engaged in various industrial actions, such as standby duty bans, leading to flight cancellations. The underlying reason for these actions is their demand for significant pay raises, as the pilots had previously accepted salary cuts to help save their employer, which had fallen into heavy losses.

However, the pilots now have something new to consider, as Finnair has announced the start of negotiations regarding pilot layoffs. The reason for this is an arrangement in which Finnair had leased two of its A330 aircraft, along with their crews, to a partner company. Finnair pilots have been operating flights on these aircraft from Bangkok and Singapore to Sydney.

According to Finnair, this arrangement has allowed the airline to put its A330 aircraft to productive use and provide work for around 90 pilots, even though, with Russian airspace closed, there would not have been enough demand for these aircraft otherwise. Despite this, the pilots' union has now expanded its industrial actions to include the critical Bangkok and Singapore flights, as well as the Sydney flights operated for the partner company.

As a result, Finnair is no longer able to operate these partnership flights reliably and has therefore started discussions with its partner regarding next steps, which include the possibility of terminating the agreement—and consequently laying off the pilots involved in these operations. It remains to be seen how the pilots' union will respond to this development.

In my view, there are three possible outcomes. Either the pilots call off their industrial actions related to this partnership, abandon their push for significant pay raises to save those at risk of being laid off, or—what I consider the most likely scenario—the situation escalates even further. At this stage, one thing is clear: the labor dispute is being played with stakes so unusual that such a situation has rarely been seen in Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Do Finns have the patience?
Why Can't Finland Find Workforce?
A nurse´s question: who deserves health care, and who does not

North Korea's Military Support to Russia: A Dangerous Escalation in Global Conflict?

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has sent 1,500 special operations forces (SOF) soldiers to Russia, with more expected in the near future. In total, North Korea has decided to send 12,000 soldiers to Russia, according to the intelligence service.

The soldiers have been provided with Russian military uniforms, weapons, and forged identification documents. The documents are forged in order to conceal the fact that the soldiers are from North Korea.

If and when these Korean soldiers reach the front lines, it would represent a dangerous escalation of the war, shifting from a conflict between two states to an alliance-based attack on a single nation. This would be somewhat similar to the origins of World War I, where more and more countries became involved in a fight that initially started between two nations — Serbia and Austria-Hungary. However, the timeline is longer in this case.

That’s why it’s interesting to see how leading Western countries - especially USA - and NATO will respond to North Korea’s involvement in this situation. Will Putin's army be allowed to strengthen with the help of an ally, or will there be countermeasures? And if there are countermeasures, what will they be?

Personally, I find it more likely that the U.S. will agree that Ukraine may use the weapons it has received from them for strikes on Russian territory if it wishes. It is also quite possible that Western nations will declare a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace and shoot down any military equipment that enters it.

However, I do not consider it even remotely possible that any Western nation would deploy its own military forces for combat operations in Ukraine, let alone direct military threats at North Korea. But I could be wrong.

So, we are living in tense times right now. It’s not entirely impossible that the situation could spiral out of control for both Putin and the leaders of Western nations, turning into something that no one really wanted.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
Military advice: Ukraine needs modern tanks