When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Russian tourism authorities have reported that at least 350 flights have been delayed or canceled due to last night's drone attacks by Ukraine. According to them, this has affected around 60,000 passengers, meaning that Putin’s subordinates have now personally experienced what it's like to live under a dictator waging a senseless war.

This is, of course, a good thing, as public support for Putin’s so-called special operation might once again drop a little. However, it’s futile to imagine that the opinions of the Russian people would have any more influence on their president than those of citizens under other global dictators.

That’s why it’s interesting to read that U.S. President Donald Trump has speculated that Putin might be enticed into peace by offering Russia a chance to participate in the next FIFA World Cup. However, such speculation is likely already too late, as the qualification rounds are underway, and Russia can no longer make it to the tournament.

Nevertheless, the idea that major sporting events could be used to pressure Putin into peace is intriguing. The thought is almost delightful—if only it were that easy.

Unfortunately, I have to remain somewhat skeptical here as well. Peace would mean that at least hundreds of thousands of brutalized men would return home from the Ukrainian front, many of whom would undoubtedly struggle to reintegrate into normal civilian life.

As a result, these soldiers could generate tensions within Russian society, which in the worst case could escalate and even lead to questioning Putin’s position. I don’t believe for a second that Putin fails to understand this—nor do I think he would be willing to take such a risk.

The fact is that, for a dictator, it's safer to wage even an eternal war—as long as it doesn’t end in defeat and doesn’t overly affect the daily lives of ordinary Muscovites or St. Petersburg residents. Which, incidentally, Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against Moscow might well begin to do.

And it’s certainly not insignificant that Ukrainian drones might very well spoil the mood of the dictator’s upcoming holiday celebrations. This could happen even if Zelensky’s army voluntarily refrains from sending a single drone to annoy the Russians on Friday, out of respect for the end of World War II.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War