A Growing Sino-Russian Threat to the West

The war in Ukraine is increasingly dividing the industrialized world into two opposing camps. One consists of the Western nations, and the other of China and Russia. The latest sign of this division is the fact that the Chinese and Russian navies have begun joint exercises in the Sea of Japan.

The exercise, named Joint Sea 2025, began off the coast of the city of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. The drills include submarine rescue, anti-submarine warfare, air defense, and missile defense exercises. While China and Russia have conducted joint military drills before, there have also been significant disagreements between them in the past.

However, as Russia has become increasingly dependent on Chinese support due to the war in Ukraine, the cooperation has deepened. According to China's Ministry of Defense, the purpose of the newly launched exercises is to "further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership."

This is something the West should take seriously. Although Russia has proven to be a paper tiger in conventional warfare in Ukraine, it remains the world’s second most powerful nuclear state. Furthermore, it's important to remember that China's actual military capability has not truly been tested since the Korean War—making it a significant unknown.

In solving this unknown, it's crucial to recognize that China has made giant leaps forward both technologically and economically. It would not be a major surprise if China’s military capability turned out to be strong enough to challenge even the United States.

All of this is one reason why the West must continue to develop its own military capabilities and technical proficiency. After all, it would be a major humanitarian catastrophe if the current, even partially free, world were to become subordinate to superpowers based on dictatorial authoritarianism.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Trump Jeopardizes NATO Progress
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now

Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?

The Estonian Defense Forces have begun to significantly develop their naval combat capabilities. One example of this is that the northernmost Baltic country has acquired Blue Spear anti-ship missiles this year, which can also be used against land-based targets. The range of these missiles extends from Estonian territory to areas off the coast of St. Petersburg and as far as the northern parts of Kaliningrad. Additionally, the missile's guidance system cannot be electronically disrupted.

Estonia is also accelerating its weapons, ammunition, and drone production. To facilitate this, it plans to build a defense industry park, which is expected to attract €150 million in investments within just a couple of years.

Estonia already has Korean K9 Thunder howitzers, and more are on the way. Furthermore, it has ordered Caesar howitzers from France and HIMARS rocket systems, which have proven extremely effective in Ukraine.

However, Estonia's navy is very small, and the country also lacks a proper air force. For this reason, the effectiveness of its defense forces depends heavily on the support of other NATO countries in the event of a crisis. In this regard, Finland is likely to play a key role.

Nevertheless, Finnish military historian Martti Turtola has expressed doubts about the Estonians' willingness to defend their country. This was also lacking in 1939 when the country, under pressure from the Soviet Union, signed an agreement that gave the Red Army free access to Estonia.

As a result of this decision, the Soviet Union occupied all of Estonia without resistance in 1940, and after World War II, it remained a part of the "workers' paradise" ruled by Stalin and his successors for five decades. In this sense, one can only hope that Turtola is wrong and that Estonians have learned something from their history. One would hope they would defend their country as resolutely as the Finns did in the Winter War of 1939–1940, thereby preserving their independence and Western way of life.

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An Iranian Student's Fantasy of Two Missiles and a U.S. Aircraft Carrier

Iranian Muslims are displaying a strong sense of bluster. One example of this is a message from a user named Aryan, who has 113,500 followers, stating that it is "impressive: Iran says it has monitored US warships including US aircraft carrier ‘USS Theodore Roosevelt’ in Strait of Hormuz few days ago... Iran said that the aircraft carrier could be sunk by 2 Abu Mahdi cruise missiles, & accompanying destroyers will only require 1 missile."

I don't know if this self-identified student is making this statement purely for propaganda purposes, or if they genuinely believe in Iran's ability to sink American aircraft carriers. If it’s the latter, it sadly speaks to the lack of realism that the Iranian educational, information, and propaganda systems have created.

Of course, it could be that the Iranian is inspired by Ukraine’s successful strikes against the Russian fleet, but they forget that there is a significant difference in the scientific and technical capabilities of the US and Putin's armies. Therefore, Iran has no real chance of sinking an American aircraft carrier with a missile attack. And this should also be well understood among the leaders of Tehran´s warfare troops.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
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Russian army not comparable to western military services

Russians have lost half of its generals, who have participated in the war in Ukraine. The New Your Times reported that this was enabled by a help of the US intelligence service.

Americans also helped Ukrainians to destroy the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, cruiser Moskva, some time ago. Undoubtedly such a help has been highly valuable to Ukrainian efforts to stop its aggressive neighbor in the war. 

The news referred above must have hit hard president Putin´s thoughts. Before the war in Ukraine he most probably imagined his conventional army to match with the western military forces. But now even Ukrainians - with a help of American intelligence service - are able to stop it and even kill its highest officers. 

It has turned out, that even if the Russian army played a major role 80 years ago in stopping Hitler´s army, its strength has vanished since the fall of the Soviet Union - or perhaps even earlier. And right now rebuilding its capability will be unrealistic for decades due to the economic and technological disconnection from the western markets due to Putin´s own stupidity in attacking to Ukraine. 

Even worse for Putin: these facts are undoubtedly understood also by other Russians in high positions. Therefore it is only a matter of time, before Putin will follow the last Czar and be set aside from his position as the president of Russia. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor