27 August 2023

Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?

Based on yesterday's news, Ukraine has managed to break through Russia's strongest defensive line in the Zaporiizhia region. This news is likely to warm the hearts of most Western people, but at the same time, it raises concerns for many about whether the Russian defense line might still be too long and heavily fortified for the Ukrainians.

As an example of this, Emil Kastehelmi, known for his strategic maps, expressed his concern about the situation's development. According to him, "Ukraine might still be able to push forward with a village or two, but a too narrow attack corridor could expose their flanks to a difficult and threatening situation."

Naturally, I don't have more information about the war situation from my living room, nor do I possess a crystal ball that shows the future. However, I do know quite a bit about the past, and that's why I decided to share a piece of information with you, dear readers.

Let's go back to the year 1940 in France. It trusted its fortification chain known as the Maginot Line along the German border after World War I. To the Gauls' dismay, the Germans bypassed the line from the north and didn't stay to fight for control of it; instead, they advanced straight to Paris.

Thus, the heavily fortified Maginot Line proved to be rather useless. Or rather, it became detrimental by tying the French forces to its positions - effectively removing them from the decisive battles of the western front in 1940.

So, in this article, I ask: what prevents the Ukrainians from repeating the same maneuver the Germans did in 1940? In the current situation, they could pour their reserves into the emerging gap and bypass the Russian fortifications, advancing deep behind Russian lines and ultimately reaching the Black Sea coast, cutting off the northern supply route that runs along the coastline.

If, at the same time, the Ukrainians manage to keep the Kerch Strait bridge at least partially impassable with missiles and drone strikes, a massive cauldron would form in Southern Ukraine. Russian forces - or at least their motivation - would likely be insufficient to break this encirclement. On the contrary, with supply lines severed, surrender might become a thought for several Russian soldiers and units.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
Victims of Russian leaders
A Finnish military professor predicted the possibilities of Ukraine's counterattack

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