The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future

Germany's Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led a coalition government that now appears to have reached the end of the road. This is because all the ministers from the liberal FDP party announced their resignation from the government after Scholz dismissed the party's chairman, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from his post.

Scholz explained that the reason for Lindner’s dismissal was a loss of confidence in him, stemming from the liberal Finance Minister's economic policy views, which differed from those of the Chancellor and the third coalition partner, the Greens.

Next, Scholz intends to negotiate with the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, and offer him an opportunity to “work constructively together on issues critical to our country.” It remains to be seen whether Merz will be willing to rescue Scholz, whose popularity among the public continues to decline.

The Greens, however, would like to continue governing Germany alongside the Social Democrats. Nonetheless, Scholz is expected to face a parliamentary vote of confidence in January. Should the government receive a vote of no confidence, new parliamentary elections would likely be held in March.

According to recent polls, significant shifts could be expected in the Bundestag. The latest surveys indicate that only 16 percent of eligible voters currently support the SPD, while the country’s most popular party is now the CDU with around 32 percent support.

The immigration-critical right-wing party AfD holds second place with 17 percent, followed by the SPD. The Greens have around 10 percent support, and the immigration-critical left-wing party BSW holds about seven percent. All other parties, including the liberals, are currently polling below Germany's five-percent electoral threshold.

In my view, it would be beneficial for Europe if the German parliament were to dissolve the government and hold elections as soon as possible. This way, the EU could rid itself of Germany’s Russia-leaning government and hopefully see a new leadership in its leading nation, one that could pursue foreign policy independent of Russia and bring Germany's economy back on a growth track.

This would also allow the EU, under Germany's leadership, to take responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressor – especially if the United States, under a returning president, shifts its military support more towards Taiwan in response to increasing pressure from China, and if Donald Trump fails to negotiate a peace within 24 hours, as may be expected.

And that’s not all, as a favorable election result could also lead to the AfD joining the government, which would make immigration a prominent issue in German politics. This, in turn, could potentially put an end to the mass migration across the Mediterranean.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
The EU Is Suffocating Under Double Bureaucracy
The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties

The Game is Getting Tougher

Mass immigration to the European Union has taken on a new dimension at the border between Greece and Turkey. The Finnish Broadcasting Company Yle reported that a Greek border guard was hit by a bullet fired from the Turkish side. The shooter is suspected to be a smuggler profiting from people from developing countries.

It is absolutely clear that shooting at border guards cannot be tolerated at any level, whether done by a smuggler or those being smuggled. Nor is it in line with any human rights agreements.

It remains to be seen how the EU will react to this incident. Will it be ignored, as are other crimes (example) committed by immigrants in Union territories, or will the mass migration from developing countries finally be treated as a serious threat to the whole of European culture?

Russians, on the other hand, have realized that fighting in Ukraine is not without risks to the home front. According to a Meduza news story, those returning from the war have committed various crimes. This is especially true for those who have previously engaged in criminal activity and joined the army as volunteers to escape prison.

According to the report, the Kremlin even believes that returning soldiers from Ukraine pose the greatest political and social risk factor during Vladimir Putin's reign. Of course, it would be great if this ultimately led to the fall of the aforementioned dictator and Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine.

However, I doubt that the Russians are capable of rising against Putin's regime. After all, they have become accustomed over hundreds of years to their leaders not caring about the well-being of the people, but only about enhancing their own reputation and wealth.

Despite everything, the news mentioned above indicates that the situation is intensifying regarding both immigration from developing countries to Europe and Russia's so-called special operation. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the future of our continent.

This issue is also of great significance for Finland, as it is, like Ukraine, a neighbor of Russia, and Vladimir Putin has conducted hybrid operations against it using people from developing countries as weapons. In the best-case scenario, Russians will be frightened by the consequences of their war on the home front and will end all hybrid operations on Finland's borders.

On the other hand, it is also possible that instead of using reason, Russians might apply the criminal activities seen at the Greek-Turkish border, endangering the safety of Finnish border guards. This too must be anticipated in the training of border guards.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Defending National Security: Finland's Response to Hybrid Warfare
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth

Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth

Finnish political media reported that a survey conducted in March revealed that the greatest concern among European youth is the mass migration directed towards our continent. This is considered the biggest worry by 36 percent of the 5,874 German, French, Polish, Greek, Spanish, and Italian youths aged 16-26 who responded to the survey.

The concern over mass immigration is particularly high in Germany, where it is the biggest worry for half of the survey respondents. The restriction of immigration, on the other hand, was most supported by Polish and Greek youths.

Although the survey included many other questions, I highlight only immigration here. This is because it shows that the planned tightening of asylum policies by Finland's current government aligns with the views of the continent's youth.

This is a good thing in itself, but it also shows that the ideologies of young people continue to change from generation to generation, just like other fashions. The key point here is to understand that the prevailing fear of the future will - for the next ten years only - guide population policy in the same way that the previous generation's fear of climate change and its consequences has shaped political actions in recent years.

On this basis, the demographic future of the European Union - and consequently its societal development - looks somewhat brighter than before. In the best case, the youth's concern, combined with the weakening dependency ratio, may even lead to a long-term increase in the currently low birth rate.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A woman's logic, Putin's test, and the Netherlands' change
The Finns rewarded a mass murder with 213,000 euros
Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult