Russia’s Elections Are Over Before They Begin

Russia’s elections for the State Duma, the country’s parliament, end today. Yet the winner was clear even before the voting began, because the chamber consists almost entirely of Putin and war supporters, after nationwide participation by the country’s only openly anti-war party was blocked.

That is why the most interesting thing about the election is not its outcome but what happens at noon today. Russia’s opposition has urged people to vote at precisely that time, in the hope of creating crowds at polling stations.

The possible crowds are, of course, of no significance in themselves. But their size could provide an indication of the level of support for the opposition — or at least of how many of its supporters have the courage to publicly express a political opinion against the regime. Even that, however, has little significance beyond perhaps causing some irritation to Putin — assuming anyone dares to tell him about it.

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The State Duma itself has an interesting history. Its first incarnation was created after Russia suffered defeat by Japan in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–05. The defeat was a tremendous humiliation for the Russians, as it was the first time a European great power had lost a war to an Asian state.

The defeat contributed to the revolution that broke out in Russia. As a result, the tsar’s absolute power was curtailed and a representative assembly, the Duma, was established. At the time, however, only a small proportion of Russians were allowed to take part in its elections. The impact of the lost war also extended to Finland, where the first Red Guards were established, the first Russification period came to an end, and Finland — then a Grand Duchy of the Russian Empire — gained a unicameral parliament.

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There was no need for a Duma during the Soviet Union, but it was re-established in 1993, during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin. It serves as the legislative body of the Russian Federation, responsible for passing federal laws as well as exercising parliamentary oversight over the government and other state institutions.

In practice, the Duma’s significance has dwindled to almost nothing under Vladimir Putin, and it has become more of a false façade for his dictatorship: it looks like democracy, but in reality it is merely a dictator’s rubber stamp. If even that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Independence and the Sword of Damocles
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?

Military Superiority Does Not Guarantee Victory

Nobody cares if a dog bites a man. Consequently, such incidents are not reported in the news, and they certainly do not make headline stories.

It is a different matter if a man bites a dog. That is unexpected and therefore the kind of event that makes headlines.

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This came to mind when virtually all major Finnish media outlets (example, another) reported that Iran's armed forces had succeeded in killing two and wounding four American soldiers. The last time Iran managed to kill an enemy combatant was last March, and over the course of the current war it has reportedly killed a total of fifteen American soldiers.

According to Wikipedia, the Iranians have meanwhile lost 1,221 soldiers. That means the cost of one American soldier amounts to roughly 81 Iranian soldiers. In other words, one American is worth more than eighty Persian Muslims.

This figure can be compared, for example, with the Winter War, during which about five Red Army soldiers were killed or wounded for every Finnish soldier lost. This suggests that the Americans have been about sixteen times more militarily effective against the Iranians this year than the Finns were against the Soviets during the Winter War.

* * *

The essential question, however, is this: if the Finns' fivefold superiority was enough to halt the Red Army's offensive, will the Americans' superiority—sixteen times greater than that achieved by the Finns in the Winter War, amounting to an overall advantage of more than eighty to one—be sufficient to defeat the Iranians?

At the moment, it does not appear so, although the Americans have naturally launched retaliatory strikes in response to these events.

Such strikes, however, do not win wars, nor do they apparently succeed in toppling governments. That would require the deployment of ground forces, which would also mean a substantial increase in American military casualties.

Even President Donald Trump is unlikely to be willing to take that step, as he too remembers the war in Afghanistan, in which 2,328 U.S. soldiers lost their lives. That conflict ended, under pressure from the home front, in the defeat of the Americans—and the Europeans who had supported them.

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Based on the above, it is likely that Trump's war against the Iranians will end in a humiliating defeat for the United States. The greatest victims will be ordinary Iranians, who had hoped to see their government—one guided by medieval values—overthrown. And, of course, people around the world will also suffer if the Strait of Hormuz effectively becomes a trade route controlled by Iran, with transit requiring the payment of tariffs or tolls.

Another significant consequence is that Iranian resistance has demonstrated that American military power may be less formidable than previously believed. This is something that has undoubtedly been noticed in Beijing, which has its own strategic interests in East Asia. For that reason, Taiwan in particular—but Japan as well—has good reason to prepare for the growing assertiveness of Chinese imperial ambitions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Who Really Rules Iran?
Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

Both the Best and the Dumbest in Tokyo Emerged Today

Today was undoubtedly the most significant day of the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo. This is because we witnessed two truly remarkable performances.

The first of them was Sweden’s Armand Duplantis’ dominant victory – and a new world record – in the men’s pole vault. Based on that, I dare to say already before the halfway point of the championships that Duplantis is currently athletics’ brightest superstar and the most dominant athlete. Grattis!

The second particularly remarkable performance came in the 3,000-meter steeplechase, where Soufiane El Bakkali earned himself the title of the championships’ dumbest athlete. What else can you think of a runner who accelerates after the final water jump into a clear lead, but then can’t be bothered to push all the way to the end, slows down after the final dry barrier, and for that reason is overtaken just a few meters before the finish line?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
Finnish Artists Embarrassed Themselves Over the Eurovision Song Contest
Football-Associated Violence Is a Personality Problem

Fear Lurks in Vladimir Putin's Mind as He Celebrates on the Wrong Date

Tomorrow, Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin, along with his cronies and subordinates, will celebrate the so-called Victory Day in honor of the end of World War II. However, the timing isn’t quite accurate, as World War II is generally considered to have ended with Japan’s surrender—first with the Emperor’s announcement on August 15, 1945, and officially with the signing of the surrender documents on September 2. Of course, the European war had already ended 80 years ago, in May 1945.

It’s also worth remembering that the Soviet Union didn’t stop fighting when the war in Europe ended. Instead, it entered the war against Japan on August 8, 1945, in accordance with what had been agreed among the Allies at the Yalta Conference earlier that year. This happened at a point when Japan’s defeat was all but inevitable, though no formal surrender had yet occurred. The Soviet offensive in Manchuria, southern Sakhalin, and the Kuril Islands continued through late August and even into early September.

As a consequence of these events, the Korean Peninsula ended up divided into Soviet and American occupation zones—and remains split into two nations to this day. In addition, Japan and the Soviet Union, and later Russia, have never signed a formal peace treaty due to the ongoing dispute over four of the Kuril Islands.

These facts are unlikely to dampen Putin’s celebratory mood. What may trouble him more—like a squirrel tormented by a frozen nut—is the persistent fear, lurking in the back of his mind throughout the festivities, that a Ukrainian drone could strike directly in Red Square. Even if Ukraine likely lacks the capacity to cause large-scale destruction in such an attack, that doesn’t guarantee peace of mind inside the Kremlin.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When the War Comes Home to Moscow
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Why It’s Crucial for Germans to Vote Wisely

Japan has been one of the countries that shut down its nuclear power plants. The reason for this was the Fukushima plant accident that occurred in 2011.

However, the Japanese relatively quickly came to their senses and restarted their first nuclear power plant already in 2011. Now, 14 nuclear power plants have been restarted in the country.

In Europe, Germany has shut down its nuclear power plants—the last ones in 2023—as it transitioned to using Russian fossil energy. As a result of the war in Ukraine, however, Europe’s economic powerhouse has found itself in a difficult position, as its natural gas purchases are financing Putin's war campaign.

Therefore, it is time for Germany to follow Japan’s example and restart its own nuclear power plants. By doing so, it could join the international group of countries that are genuinely trying to help Ukraine emerge victorious from Russian aggression.

In this matter, the decision-making power lies with German voters, who have the ability to shape the outcome. It is therefore to be hoped that they will recognize the importance of voting wisely. Failing to do so could make all of Germany a laughingstock.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Germany Then and Now Resemble Each Other
The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future
Elections in Georgia and Japan: The Future of Democracy on Different Paths

Elections in Georgia and Japan: The Future of Democracy on Different Paths

In Georgia, it is very likely that the elections were rigged. At the same time, the country's attempts to distance itself from Russia seem to be coming to an end—unless a popular uprising or some other unexpected event occurs in the future.

Another set of elections is also underway, where power may change hands. This time it's Japan, and there is no doubt that the election results can be trusted—not even by the politicians who lose the election.

There are two major differences between Georgia and Japan. First, their political positions are entirely different. Japan has been a stable democracy supported by the United States since the end of World War II. Georgia, on the other hand, has experienced at least a tumultuous path since its liberation from the Soviet Union, colored by Russia's presence.

However, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, for example, also freed themselves from Soviet rule in the early 1990s, and a significant portion of their populations are Russian. In these countries, the native populations—Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians—quickly took control of the state apparatus and shut down Russian attempts to influence.

Even the Russian minorities in these countries no longer wish to be under Russia's control—although they may not fully adapt to the majority ways of life in their own countries either. In any case, all three countries share a strong consensus among their citizens that Russia will not be allowed to interfere in their affairs.

For this reason, it is important to note that all the Baltic states, after gaining their independence, integrated as quickly as possible both economically and militarily with Western nations. Accordingly, they shaped their societies to meet the standards required for such integration.

This has not been the case in Georgia, where a large portion of the population wishes to keep the country within Russia's sphere of influence. Even by conservative estimates, around 40% of the population supports this view. 

As a result, Georgia's future does not seem very promising. At best, the country appears to be on a path that will lead to the loss of its true freedom and its transformation into a Russian vassal state, much like Belarus.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?
Putin´s Russia got mad about the Finnish chairman of the Parliament
Daniel Freund demanded a ban to Viktor Orbán

Immigration Policy Must Take Artificial Intelligence and Robots into Account

Birth rates have declined rapidly in nearly all industrialized countries. This is said to cause sustainability gaps and labor shortages, which has sparked much discussion in East Asia and Europe, including in Finland.

Prime Minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo (NCP), announced yesterday that his government will implement measures to promote labor-based immigration while simultaneously tightening humanitarian immigration laws to a Nordic level. He also stated, “labor-based immigration is what we need to promote and what we want to promote. We need it.”

Another representative from a major governing party, Jani Mäkelä, chair of the Finns Party’s parliamentary group, also weighed in on the matter. According to him, the forecast’s fulfillment is uncertain since recent increased immigration primarily stems from Ukrainians, whose influx into Finland is unlikely to continue for long.

Despite this, he too noted that “the government is taking the right actions regarding labor-based immigration, tightening the requirements for entry and work eligibility. Those who remain in the country under these conditions are likely to contribute quite positively to the national economy.”

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I can largely agree with these views, but I also want to remind everyone that while the government may be setting our immigration policy on a clearly more sensible path, this approach should hold after the 2027 parliamentary elections as well. I don’t believe the election results will be determined so much by the immigration policy pursued but rather by the general economic policies in place.

For this reason, the government should ensure that Finland and its public finances turn towards growth by early 2026 at the latest, so that this will have a tangible impact on people’s lives before the spring of 2027 when elections are held. Otherwise, we risk a return to power by the left, leading to the dilution of the reforms made now and a shift toward economically and domestically unsustainable immigration policies.

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In this context, we should also note that technology is currently advancing at an exceptionally rapid pace. It is practically certain that robots guided by artificial intelligence will replace an increasing number of workers every day.

For instance, I am fully confident that if I ever end up in a nursing home, I will be cared for there—following Japan’s example—by robots. Their use won’t be limited to elderly care; robots and AI will replace various types of workers during my lifetime.

AI is already being used today, for example, in programming or determining the spatial structure of proteins. I see no fundamental obstacle to AI-driven robots in the future building opera houses or managing the entire agricultural production chain—from grain cultivation to animal slaughter, meat packaging, and delivery to stores.

It’s also virtually certain that AI robots will, at some point, be handing out ski poles by day and serving beer to vacationers at ski resorts by night. I wouldn’t be surprised to one day see a company whose owner selects an AI as its CEO or a research team with independent AI and robotic members—first steps toward this have already been seen.

In other words, the labor market will undergo radical changes within this century. Thus, there’s no need for sudden demographic policy panic reactions, even if it is currently wise to invest somewhat in labor-based immigration to address the acute labor shortage and, of course, to make it feasible for young people to have children if and when they wish to.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end
A caliphate was demanded in Germany
The change in the demographic structure of Helsinki

Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams

Russia is hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. The host nation's president, Vladimir Putin indirectly acknowledged his secondary role by referring to China's president, Xi Jinping, as his dear friend.

According to Putin, cooperation between China and Russia is one of the most important factors in "balancing the world". This claim is, of course, at the very least, interesting given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s posturing toward Taiwan and Japan.

Putin also wanted to paint visions of the future, like something out of a sci-fi movie. He stated that "we will continue to work with China to establish a new fair world order." A sentence somewhat reminiscent of how Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini might have phrased things in the late 1930s.

The positive aspect, however, is that Putin does not have the power to reshape the world order. And China likely has no desire even for a trade war now, considering its own economic struggles. Sure, some other BRICS countries—like South Africa or Iran—might be willing to side with Putin, but they don't hold significant weight in the bigger picture.

In this situation, it's important that the major Western nations stay united, both after the U.S. presidential elections and as anti-immigration parties in Europe grow more influential with each election, while also avoiding unnecessary provocation of China despite staying tough. Only by doing so can we ensure that BRICS leaders don’t get any ideas about pursuing Putin’s foolish dreams. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Vladimir Putin is Leading Russia into an Economic Ruin
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat
Rising Trade Tensions Between the EU and China

The amazing adventures of the German cockroach

The German cockroach, also known as the common cockroach, is a member of the animal kingdom that brings to mind positive thoughts for few people - hardly even the most enthusiastic animal rights advocates. However, in all its repulsiveness, it is an extremely interesting creature that is entirely dependent on humans, as it is not known to live independently anywhere in the world.

The German cockroach was described by Carl von Linné, who developed the modern system of organism classification. He also suggested that it originated from somewhere else than Europe. And indeed, he was a wise man, for research has shown that the cockroach originated in Asia and has even traced its spread around the world.

By analyzing mitochondrial genes, it has been shown that the German cockroach is most closely related to the Asian cockroach, which was originally described in Japan but has since spread to the United States. The journey of the German cockroach from Asia has been investigated by mapping genomic similarities from 281 samples collected in 17 countries.

Their genetic relationships indicate that German cockroaches achieved global distribution in two waves, both assisted by humans. However, this only began after the ancestors of the German cockroach diverged from the Asian cockroach about 2100 years ago.

This likely happened in India or Myanmar as the cockroaches adapted to eating human food. After mastering this skill, the German cockroach moved to the Middle East about 1200 years ago, coinciding with the expansion of trade and warfare during the two Islamic caliphates, the Umayyads and the Abbasids. The likely means of transportation were bread baskets carried by people.

In the next wave, the species' range expanded to Southeast Asia about 390 years ago, driven by colonial trade by the Dutch and British East India Companies. Finally, trading ships brought the cockroaches to Europe around 300 years ago.

Subsequently, steamships and improved housing – with heating and plumbing creating warm, humid conditions favored by cockroaches – enabled the German cockroach to spread worldwide. The only place left unconquered is Antarctica.

The story of the German cockroach, as briefly described above, illustrates how natural selection takes advantage of opportunities. First, the abundance of food produced by agriculture created a new ecological niche, allowing some cockroaches to specialize in consuming human food.

With the services provided by humans, the cockroaches were then ready to travel with them all over the world. And to adapt to living in the most diverse conditions – as long as there is someone there providing them with bread and warmth.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Traditional beliefs turned out to be wisdom
Leaders infected by a parasite
World oceans are filled with previously unknown viruses

Why doesn't immigration cause protests in Japan?

Nathan Cofnas published a message on social media where he wondered why increased immigration in Japan does not cause similar resistance as in Western countries. His conclusion was that "ethnonationalism isn't very popular."

He had added a figure to the title of a story in Foreign Policy Magazine, saying that "Japan Radically Increased Immigration - and No One Protested." Half of the answer to Nathan's question is provided by the story, describing that immigrants in Japan have to work in the country and are not supported by the social welfare system - read "taxpayer's money" - as in Europe.

The other half of the explanation can be seen in the statistics shown on Wikipedia. At the end of June 2022, there were 2,760,635 foreigners residing in Japan. The most important ethnicities were Chinese, Vietnamese, South Koreans, Filipinos, Nepalese, Indonesians, Americans, Thais, and Taiwanese.

This list is completely different from the ethnicities of immigrants in Europe, especially those raising negative attitudes among ethnically Europeans by committing rapes, terrorism, and other illegal activities. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why immigration is considerably more popular among Japanese than Europeans. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
100 percent of the violence is related to migration
A Finnish police officer is afraid to speak about the problems of immigration
Sweden already in trouble - Finland following