The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear

At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the army of the old regime led by General Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island of Taiwan. The communists led by the victor, Mao Zedong, did not pursue them, and thus a new poor island state came into being.

At first, Taiwan was unequivocally a developing country, into which large amounts of development aid still flowed in the 1960s. At the same time, it represented the whole of China in the United Nations — and even held a seat on the Security Council — until 1971, when the Taiwanese were expelled from the entire organization and Mao’s communist government took their place.

Over time, Taiwan transitioned to democracy and adopted a capitalist economic model. As a result, the country has become a small economic giant with a significant position in the electronics and engineering industries as well as in petrochemical products — and in semiconductor components it even holds a leading position worldwide.

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At the same time, with the support of the United States, the Taiwanese have armed themselves to the teeth. The reason for this is the threat posed by China, which continues to covet the island and which appears to be a more significant issue for U.S. President Donald Trump than the war in Ukraine.

For this reason, it was noteworthy that Member of the European Parliament and general Pekka Toveri predicted on social media that China would attack the island state in the near future. As a sign of this, he points to extensive purges carried out within China’s military leadership.

If Toveri is right, we will witness a clash between the two greatest military and economic powers of our time, in which the United States will side with Taiwan in a fight against Xi’s army. One can of course hope that this will not happen.

If it does, however, it is to be hoped that the confrontation would avoid the use of nuclear weapons and be limited to conventional warfare. This would certainly be the case at first — but would both sides refrain from nuclear weapons even if one of them were facing defeat?

For this reason, the Taiwan question is extremely important. So far, nuclear weapons have been used against people only at the end of the Second World War, but we do not know whether either Xi Jinping or Donald Trump would be willing to resort to them — if defeat were looming — in order to avoid losing face.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Taiwanin kysymys uuteen vaiheeseen?

Putin on His Knees Before Xi — and Running Out of Money

The Finnish Institute of International Affairs’ senior researcher Jussi Lassila commented on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s trip to China, and in doing so, he also summarized his position in world politics remarkably well. He noted that “Putin is on his knees before Xi, which suits China. Xi can present agreements to Russia that greatly benefit China, while Russia is forced to accept deals that are unfavorable to itself.”

At the same time, Lassila reassured ordinary people worried about the growing closeness between China and Russia. He pointed out that “Of course, opposition to the United States remains the common denominator here, but I don’t see any truly unified anti-Western alliance emerging between China and Russia”—and he explained, quite rightly, that “China has benefited enormously from the prevailing global order, which is why its continuity is in its interest.”

Lassila’s comments are both credible and fact-based—and therefore most likely accurate.

Another recent piece of news certainly does nothing to improve Putin’s situation: Russia’s state coffers are beginning to run dry. The liquidity of the National Wealth Fund, calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), has fallen below 155 billion euros. At the central bank, the state has net reserves of 200 billion euros (PPP). In other words, Russia’s assets are sufficient to cover the budget for only about one year—until August 2026.

In that situation, hard facts will catch up with Putin’s so-called “special operation.” After all, you cannot draw something out of nothing, and waging war is not free. It may, therefore, very well be that the fate of Tsar Nicholas II will begin to haunt the dictator who imagines himself omnipotent—sooner or later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Trump Jeopardizes NATO Progress

A while ago, President Donald Trump announced that NATO countries should increase their defense spending to five percent of their gross domestic product. A large portion of the European members of NATO have appeared ready to accept this goal after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that this could be achieved by raising actual military spending to 3.5 percent, with the remaining 1.5 percent consisting of other security-related activities.

The positive attitude of European countries is due to the undeniable fact that Vladimir Putin’s Russia has demonstrated its ruthlessness in Ukraine, and Europeans are unwilling to risk their security — especially not the United States' commitment to the continent’s security arrangements. Only Spain’s socialist president, Pedro Sánchez, has clearly voiced disagreement.

The continuation of this positive development is now in jeopardy, as Trump announced that the five percent rule would not apply to the United States. His justification is the — admittedly accurate — claim that the U.S. has so far borne the lion’s share of NATO’s military capabilities and their costs.

It remains to be seen how Europeans will react to Trump’s statement. Will it prompt other financially weaker countries, especially those far from the Russian border and thus at lower risk, to join Pedro Sánchez in resisting the NATO spending demands?

Such an outcome would be extremely unfortunate for both Europe and the United States — for Europe, because its security would not improve as much as it recently seemed it might; and for the U.S., because it would clearly weaken its influence in global politics. The winners would include not only Vladimir Putin’s Russia but also — and even more clearly — Xi Jinping’s China, which is looking forward to seizing Taiwan for itself.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now

It has been difficult for us Europeans to understand why Donald Trump has been so popular among American voters. Of course, he has made some good decisions regarding immigration and the excesses of value liberalism, but on the other hand, his foreign policy endangers the unity of the Western world in the face of China and Russia and leads to a decline in the standard of living on both sides of the Atlantic.

Naturally, we do understand that behind this lies the economic self-sufficiency stemming from the greatness of American society, which slows down the impact that closing borders has on the daily lives of ordinary citizens. And, of course, the DEI/woke movements that have eroded American society from within during the Democrats’ time in power, and which many have grown thoroughly tired of.

According to recent information, however, it now seems that even for Americans, enough is enough. This is indicated by a fresh poll showing that 50.2 percent of Americans disapprove of the president and his administration’s actions, while only 46.4 percent approve. Even Elon Musk has noticed that Trump’s actions are becoming costly for him personally as well.

It remains to be seen how Trump will respond to these numbers — and how that will affect how he leads the country in relation to the rest of the world.

Right now, the most important thing would be to express strong support for Ukraine, both in words and actions. This is because Russia has just launched its spring offensive, and its success would be in no Western country's interest — least of all the USA’s, since Putin and Xi seem to have found common ground and, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, pose a significant security threat to the Americans.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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The Price of Xi´s and Putin's Game Is Paid by Ordinary Russians

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the head of Russia’s Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, that China and Russia should continue to strengthen their cooperation on international and regional affairs.

This development is, in a way, a continuation of the recent trend of China and Russia growing closer in foreign policy. However, it can also be interpreted as China seeking to increase its own influence over Russia in order to eventually turn it into a mere raw material supplier for its own industry.

Nevertheless, due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting Western economic sanctions, President Vladimir Putin—who has driven Russia’s economy into distress—is likely willing to accept Xi’s offers. He is also aware that his own time in power is nearing its end. Therefore, he needs to keep the Russian people satisfied for as long as possible to prevent any revolutionary threats against him and his administration.

In other words, Putin is willing to sacrifice his country’s and his people’s future for the sake of his own security and benefit. And there is little doubt that he will succeed in doing so—or that the price for ordinary Russians will be heavy.

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Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams

Russia is hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. The host nation's president, Vladimir Putin indirectly acknowledged his secondary role by referring to China's president, Xi Jinping, as his dear friend.

According to Putin, cooperation between China and Russia is one of the most important factors in "balancing the world". This claim is, of course, at the very least, interesting given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s posturing toward Taiwan and Japan.

Putin also wanted to paint visions of the future, like something out of a sci-fi movie. He stated that "we will continue to work with China to establish a new fair world order." A sentence somewhat reminiscent of how Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini might have phrased things in the late 1930s.

The positive aspect, however, is that Putin does not have the power to reshape the world order. And China likely has no desire even for a trade war now, considering its own economic struggles. Sure, some other BRICS countries—like South Africa or Iran—might be willing to side with Putin, but they don't hold significant weight in the bigger picture.

In this situation, it's important that the major Western nations stay united, both after the U.S. presidential elections and as anti-immigration parties in Europe grow more influential with each election, while also avoiding unnecessary provocation of China despite staying tough. Only by doing so can we ensure that BRICS leaders don’t get any ideas about pursuing Putin’s foolish dreams. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?

After the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia, people around the world have been pondering what the consequences will be. One manifestation of this is when US President Joe Biden stated during his visit to Canada that China has not yet delivered weapons to Russia. 

It remains to be seen whether this will happen at a later stage. However, it is most likely that Xi's administration will not take such a risk. Instead, it seeks to benefit from Russia by exporting Chinese products there to replace Western counterparts and importing underpriced Russian raw materials to China as their export to Western countries has collapsed.

I base my view on the fact that China would not gain much advantage by supporting the soon-to-be ousted dictator Vladimir Putin and exacerbating its strained relations with the West over the Taiwan issue. On the contrary, such an action could prove to be very costly for China. Moreover, the current Chinese leadership is not accustomed to taking significant risks in any matter, as demonstrated by its excessive caution in lifting coronavirus restrictions.

However, this does not mean that China could not act differently from what I imagine, as the failed coronavirus policy has shown that Xi's administration has made mistakes before. Therefore, Western countries should be prepared also for that possibility.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
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China is betting on scientific excellence

There are two great powers in the world. That includes both military and economic strength - and the two powers are USA and China. 

Still today USA is much stronger in its economy and also in military force, although statistics still claim Russia would be in the second place in the latter dimension - a claim shown to be wrong by Ukraine. Therefore it was interesting to read about ideas of Xi Jinping in China.

According to the article, Xi opened the Communist party meeting - where he was nominated to his third period as a president of the country - by saying that "regard science and technology as our primary productive force, talent as our primary resource and innovation as our primary driver of growth". That is: China has become to a situation, where they aim to increase their technological readiness above all other countries in the world.

Actually they have been looking for that already for quite a while. During the last years their intention has been to increase the R&D intensity by at least seven percent every year, and if that continues until 2035, it could reach the average of 2,7 percent for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the current 2.4 percent of gross domestic product. 

There are, however, obstacles in China´s way towards the leading power of the world. Russian attack to Ukraine has warned political West from relying too strictly on Chinese products, which may reduce monetary income and investments to Xi´s empire. And at the same time, restrict the spread of western innovations to China. 

Even more difficult obstacles might appear from the Chinese cultural tradition restricting criticism towards elder colleagues, which decelerates the spread of novel innovative ideas. Also the decrease of Chinese population due to former one child policy may increase burden to people in working age and cause serious instability in the society. And that would certainly affect negatively also the scientific realm. 

Despite all these obstacles, in my opinion Xi´s decision to bet on scientific excellence is wise. Even if any of the fears turns real, scientific approach is the the best option to find solutions. 

That should also be remembered in the USA, where many universities have fallen to a crisis caused by ultraliberal ideology ("wokeism") questioning even many scientific facts and demanding their replacement with politically correct beliefs. Even though the purpose of liberals may be good, they have forgotten the fact Chinese have realized: a stable, competitive and ultimately fair future can only be built on scientific truth. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine

Pax Russiana is cracking in Asia as shown by fights along the border of Kyrgyz and Tajik as well as between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers. The reason behind these fights - in addition to local disagreements - is probably the poor performance of Vladimir Putin´s army in Ukraine.

As Russia is obviously not able to respond to those minor fights, they will most probably continue, and similar cases will appear also in other areas of the former Soviet Union. Ultimately, all those will most probably reduce Russian influence around its neighborhood. 

At the same time, Vladimir Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to look for help to cope with western sanctions against his actions in Ukraine. Although President Xi Jinping of China was very polite, it was extremely clear which one of the two country leaders was the boss. 

It was also clear that Xi is not willing to risk China´s relationships with the West because of Putin´s adventure to Ukraine, especially as they already are tense due to Taiwan case. But at the same time, he looks for possibilities to take advantage on Putin´s distress - such as purchasing cheap oil from Russia. 

In my opinion, this all indicates that Putin with his "special operation" confirmed the lowering of Russia from a global great power to a second level nation among the ranking of countries. And underlines the position of China as the only rival of US hegemony in the world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?
Trump is leaving Africa