Trump Jeopardizes NATO Progress

A while ago, President Donald Trump announced that NATO countries should increase their defense spending to five percent of their gross domestic product. A large portion of the European members of NATO have appeared ready to accept this goal after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that this could be achieved by raising actual military spending to 3.5 percent, with the remaining 1.5 percent consisting of other security-related activities.

The positive attitude of European countries is due to the undeniable fact that Vladimir Putin’s Russia has demonstrated its ruthlessness in Ukraine, and Europeans are unwilling to risk their security — especially not the United States' commitment to the continent’s security arrangements. Only Spain’s socialist president, Pedro Sánchez, has clearly voiced disagreement.

The continuation of this positive development is now in jeopardy, as Trump announced that the five percent rule would not apply to the United States. His justification is the — admittedly accurate — claim that the U.S. has so far borne the lion’s share of NATO’s military capabilities and their costs.

It remains to be seen how Europeans will react to Trump’s statement. Will it prompt other financially weaker countries, especially those far from the Russian border and thus at lower risk, to join Pedro Sánchez in resisting the NATO spending demands?

Such an outcome would be extremely unfortunate for both Europe and the United States — for Europe, because its security would not improve as much as it recently seemed it might; and for the U.S., because it would clearly weaken its influence in global politics. The winners would include not only Vladimir Putin’s Russia but also — and even more clearly — Xi Jinping’s China, which is looking forward to seizing Taiwan for itself.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Pedro Sánchez Sides with Europe's Fifth Column on Russia
António Guterres, You Won’t Stop Russia – But Mines Might
Ukraine’s Former Foreign Minister Warns Against Another 1939

Gambling Addiction and the Shadowy Instigator

Probably every one of us knows what a compulsive gambler is like. A person who plays games of chance, losing again and again. Yet they imagine that luck might turn if they just play one more round — or two — and that they might win back the money they've lost.

This came to mind when I read the news that Israel announced the establishment of 22 new settlements in the West Bank. And the country’s defense minister even spoke of turning the area into a Jewish state.

And no, I didn’t mean that Israel, its defense minister, or the Jewish citizens of the country were the compulsive gamblers in this story — rather, the Palestinian Arabs. In 1947, they would have received about half of what is now the territory of Israel. But this was not acceptable to them, and they decided to take a gamble.

That meant launching a war, with the help of surrounding Arab countries, with the aim of driving the Jews into the sea. As part of that effort, Palestinian Arabs were asked to leave their homes, resulting in a large number of Palestinian refugees who have since been barred from returning to Israeli territory.

In the years that followed, several wars broke out between Israel and Arab states. The plight of the Palestinians was not always the direct cause, but in most cases, it was at least a background factor.

Then came the years 1993–2000, during which the Oslo peace process offered the Palestinians the possibility of an independent state comprising the West Bank and Gaza. However, their leader Yasser Arafat refused to sign the agreement that had been reached — because he wanted borders based on the 1947 plan. And so, once again, he and the Palestinians he led decided to roll the dice and continued down the path of various terrorist acts.

As my esteemed readers know, Palestinian terrorists were especially "successful" in their October 2023 attack, which led to Israel taking control of the Gaza Strip. As a result, Israel recently even threatened to evacuate its entire population.

And now, most recently, came the defense minister’s comment about the West Bank: “we will build the Jewish-Israeli state on the ground.” If that plan goes through, the situation would resemble that of a typical compulsive gambler who has already lost all their money, their spouse has left, the job is gone, and even the house is about to be sold off to pay the debts.

So what the Palestinians do in this situation? Well, like all other compulsive gamblers, they naturally decide to play one more round in a game where they, in reality, have virtually no chance of winning — except in the imagination of the compulsive gambler. 

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Incidentally, perhaps the greatest harm to the Palestinians has been done by Western leftists, Greens, and feminists who have, year after year, supported them ever more fervently. Without this constant encouragement, reason might have prevailed even in the mind of a compulsive gambler.

The massive shows of support may have appeared to Palestinian leaders as signs of hope — that although the fronts keep delivering defeat after defeat, perhaps a power shift in the West might someday bring Western countries to their aid.

And maybe, after enduring all that I’ve described above, they might still hit the jackpot — and drive the Jews into the sea. Isn’t that a possibility to believe in, especially when Palestinian flags and banners with clear slogans like “from the river to the sea” wave ever more prominently on Western university campuses, streets, and squares?

In other words, the pro-Palestinian activity in the West resembles a scene from a Western movie, where the shady backroom figure running the saloon’s card table keeps urging the stranger to stay in the rigged game until he’s lost his last dollar.

Unfortunately for the Palestinians, it seems to be too difficult for the Western left, Greens, and feminists to understand this. And there is no noble hero riding into the saloon to shoot the cheating card shark and the filthy-rich saloon owner.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
How Hamas Exploited Aid and Lost the Support of Many Palestinians
What Would It Take to Make Peace in the Holy Land?
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons