Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

According to media reports, Ukrainians have developed a cruise missile, "Flamingo", with a warhead weighing as much as one thousand kilograms and the capability to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. If the information is correct, this weapon could destroy key parts of Russia’s arms industry and/or critical facilities that bring money to the war chest, such as oil refineries.

Reports claim that these missiles are already in production, with one being manufactured per day. That is not enough to work wonders yet, but within a couple of months, according to Ukrainians, they will be able to produce dozens per week.

Ukraine has also had time to test these missiles in practice, though no details about the results have been released. However, it is clear that the most important question in this regard concerns how effectively Russian air defense can defend potential targets—meaning whether it can shoot the missiles down as they travel through Russian airspace toward their objectives.

Still, one can hope that at least some of the missiles will get through and significantly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the weaponry it is constantly losing in Ukraine. In that way, the frontline situation could finally shift clearly in Ukraine’s favor.

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In addition to Ukraine’s new missile, Russia faces another problem: the continuous decline in volunteers willing to go fight in Ukraine.

As a result, Vladimir Putin’s regime has apparently resorted to illegal methods to obtain soldiers to fight on its behalf. One example is 18-year-old Said Murtazaliev, who lived in southern Russia and dreamed of becoming a doctor.

In January 2025, before his final year of high school, he traveled to Moscow to spend a relaxing winter holiday. Instead, Murtazaliev disappeared without his family being able to reach him.

A few days later, however, his mother received a call from the police. During the call, a young woman told her that the boy had been detained in Moscow for some kind of minor fraud.

According to the police, the boy had signed a contract with the army and left to fight in Ukraine. Later, Said told his mother that he had been subjected to brutal torture by police in Moscow, and that he was released only after agreeing to go to Ukraine.

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This and many other similar cases show that Putin’s regime has run out of legal means to get men to die in Ukraine. For this reason, he has intensified the conscription of young men into military service.

To that end, an electronic draft system has been developed. A summons sent through it is valid regardless of whether the conscript has seen it. According to Russian law, however, conscripts may not be sent to fight in Ukraine, since the country is not officially at war there, but only conducting a “special military operation.”

For this reason, many conscripts also fall victim to the same kind of violent coercion in recruitment as that experienced by Said Murtazaliev. To escape it, they are forced to sign a contract agreeing to go to Ukraine.

All in all, it is clear that actions like those described above are gradually leading to growing dissatisfaction with Putin and his regime. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will ultimately lead to an uprising and for Moscow’s current ruler to share the fate of Tsar Nicholas II. In my opinion, that would be more than desirable. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

According to a report by Finnish military intelligence, Russia is set to triple the number of its troops stationed near Finland’s borders after the war in Ukraine ends. It is doing so because Putin’s military prioritizes its northwestern direction – essentially the area near Finland – highly in its strategic considerations.

The military intelligence assessment suggests that the number of Russian troops in the region will increase from around 30,000 combatants to an estimated 80,000 soldiers. At the same time, Russia’s behavior is “likely to become increasingly unpredictable” as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has severed Russia’s ties with the global economy.

As a result of all this, the border region between Finland and Russia will become “tense.” Naturally, this poses a significant challenge – and risk – to Finnish society as a whole and its independence.

For this reason, it is good that Finland’s Defense Forces have been working to integrate into NATO as quickly as possible, enabling Finland to rely on NATO’s support when necessary and to fully utilize its resources. It would also be beneficial if this were understood in Russia so that they would refrain from any aggression along their northwestern border.

This would also be in Russia’s own interest, as it is clear that its army would face significant challenges in an attack on Finland, especially given the difficulties it has already faced in Ukraine. Finland’s military is far better equipped than Ukraine’s, the size of its reserves is exceptionally high due to compulsory military service, the Finnish people’s will to defend their country is the highest in the world, and all of this is backed by the United States-led world’s strongest military alliance.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability

History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history

This is the fourth part of a blog series where I delve into the significant phases of Finnish history. In the previous post, I discussed the rebellion of the peasants who feared becoming serfs but ultimately lost their battle, resulting in the permanent weakening of their previously strong position in relation to the nobility.

Following the Cudgel War, Charles, Duke of Södermanland, ascended to power in Sweden after defeating King Sigismund in the Battle of Stångebro. As King Charles IX, he successfully curbed the nobility's thirst for power during his reign. However, after his sudden demise in 1611, the situation underwent a transformation.

This presented an opportunity for the high nobility to place the underage Gustaf Adolph on the throne, whose decisions were heavily influenced by the dominance of the nobility itself, the ruling Council of State, and the Estates General, all of which were effectively controlled by the high nobility. Consequently, the king found himself compelled to advocate for the privileges of the nobility, resulting in his position being somewhat like the first of his peers. As a result, the king also had an interest in promoting the interests of the high nobility.

As a result of this development, approximately 63 percent of the kingdom's land came under the ownership of the nobility. Consequently, the position of ordinary peasants and even lower nobility further deteriorated. However, they still served a purpose as representatives in the Estates General, which was established to endorse the privileges of the high nobility.

Soon, the nobility acquired exclusive rights to the highest positions, which were rapidly created. Consequently, power, legal authority, and wealth in the country shifted into the hands of the upper echelons of nobility, while the significance of local parish meetings, which were closer to the people, diminished.

Nevertheless, the peasants in the northern regions were spared from serfdom due to the sparse population. Unlike the southern European cities that attracted the surrounding rural population, the small settlements in the north lacked the same appeal, eliminating the need to bind peasants to the land.

Consequently, the Finnish and Swedish peasants were formally allowed to maintain their free status. However, the decrease in the number of farms and cultivated areas between 1570 and 1660, instead of growth, clearly indicates their actual distress. Moreover, the common people bore the burden of conscription by the great power, directed by the nobles towards difficult people in their own fiefdoms and neighboring estates, seeking to redeem them for their own control when their own men became depleted.

Simultaneously, the common people endured an unprecedentedly stringent discipline, resulting in various side effects such as witch hunts in the wealthiest peasant regions, religious revivalist movements, and devastating famines that claimed the lives of at least a quarter, if not a third, of Finland's population. The destructiveness of these famines was not only caused by the well-known Little Ice Age but also by rural poverty, which eroded people's ability to withstand years of poor harvests.

Furthermore, even during the worst famine years, Finland, under the rule of the nobility, saw the exportation of grain instead of utilizing it to feed the starving population. Meanwhile, cities on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea decayed due to the mercantilist ideology centered around a Stockholm-dominated trade system.

The position of the peasants was further weakened not only by the Swedish conscription that transformed Finland into a massive military camp but also by the constant need for funds to sustain a military perpetually engaged in warfare. This necessity stemmed from the fact that approximately half of the state's income was allocated to military endeavors. The nobility benefited from these wars, as they provided various advantages to the military class, from advancing their own careers to amassing land.

Overall, the era of the aristocracy represented the darkest period in Finnish history for the common people. However, it also sowed the seeds of its own destruction, as the nobility's insatiable thirst for power and wealth, coupled with their incessant warfare, gradually weakened the entire kingdom and ultimately left it vulnerable and defenseless in the face of external threats.

The original blog post in Finnish: Suomen historian kurjin aika

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

War in Ukraine affects other countries

The war in Ukraine seems to have taken a new step. That became obvious when the Crimea bridge was damaged so badly that a part of it collapsed, and therefore it also became clear that Zelenskiy´s troops have started to prepare an attack to return back the peninsula occupied by Russians in 2014.

Right now it looks like the Ukrainian plan would be first to cut off the maintenance connections of the Russian army and attack the defender´s forces only thereafter. That sounds like a reasonable plan, but we should not forget the highly imaginative skills of the leaders of the Ukrainian army - and therefore the attack on the bridge could have been conducted "just" to regroup the Russian troops elsewhere and thereafter to strike to weak points of the defense opened by the process.

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At the same time, the number of refugees have appeared to Finland from both Ukraine and Russia. Although one could imagine that the two groups escaping Vladimir Putin´s actions would understand each others well, the immigration officials decided to accommodate the two nationalities separately.  

The decision was probably reasonable, because Ukrainians are mostly women and children, whereas Russians are largely young men trying to escape from military service in Ukraine. Even though there has not been violence between the two nationalities, the decision was made due to fears of Ukrainians. 

In my opinion, making the decision before any real problems appeared was excellent as there is no reason to expose Ukrainians to any unnecessary fears - not even to ones with a very low probability. And after all, situations where men and women are isolated from normal life are prone to sexual harassment even though that would not have anything to do with the ongoing war. 

* * *

Finally, it seems that Finland will obtain a high number of new inhabitants due to the war. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one third of Ukrainians are willing to stay in Finland even after the war. If so, they should be integrated into the working life, which is not expected to be even nearly as difficult as it has been for people who arrived in 2015 and thereafter. 

No numbers are available (to my knowledge) for the willingness of Russian young men to stay permanently in Finland. Anyway, also they would probably be a useful working force, but at the same time their presence would form a risk to the country.

That is because Russia is eager to use Russian minorities as an excuse to put pressure on its neighboring countries - even if they disagree. And definitely, the relatively big share of Russians working in Finland disagree with Putin´s actions in Ukraine: a total of 64 percent of them consider Putin´s "special operation" unjustified, and less than one fifth support it. 

Taken this all together, it seems that Ukraine is strongly dominating the war in Ukraine, but despite that, it affects strongly other countries like Finland via the flow of refugees. When the war at some day ends, it will be very interesting to see, which of those effects will be long lasting.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin is in a political and military impasse
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
Vakartšuk of the Okean Elzy: Finnish history inspires Ukrainians

Military service to overthrow Mr. Putin

The Finnish Ministry of Defense has decided to send soldiers to UK to educate Ukrainian troops. The purpose is to provide similar military training as is given in Finnish military service. 

This action is part of a British attempt to educate a total of 10 000 Ukrainian soldiers. Other countries participating are at least Sweden, Canada and Netherlands. 

This is kind of action where Finnish military can be useful for Ukrainians. That is because all Finns are reaching during their obligatory military service a level that was described after a common military exercise by a US Colonel with words "in my opinion, they are professionals as soldiers". He even mentioned that professional US soldiers had learned a lot from Finns during the training - although learning happened naturally also the other way around. 

My hope is that whatever Ukrainian soldiers learn in their training, that would help them pushing Russian troops over the border between the two Slavonic countries. And ultimately cause in Russia a revolution that would end the era of the current criminal regime led by Mr. Putin.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Finnish army is respected by Russians
Russian army not comparable to western military services
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor