Russia's major offensive against Ukraine in 2022 turned into a war of attrition after the initial phases, with heavy losses on both sides without significant shifts in the front lines as a result of the fighting. There are various estimates of these losses, and according to the latest information, Russia has lost about 1,200 men per day over the past six weeks.
According to the article, the battle situation is primarily regulated by the Ukrainians' ammunition situation. This, in turn, depends on the continuity of aid from Western countries: every pause in deliveries weakens the defenders' position and thus works to the advantage of the Russians.
The fact, however, is that neither side has the strength to break through the front lines over a wider area and thus advance a military solution. On the other hand, a political solution is also not easy, because Russia still occupies parts of Ukraine and has no desire to concede them. And Ukraine – or even the international community – certainly cannot accept rewarding Russia's illegal operation with favorable border changes.
Thus, it is a difficult stalemate to resolve, where the keys lie with the Western countries. Their economic performance is something entirely different than Russia's, and therefore, they theoretically have the possibility to increase the support given to Ukraine.
However, we are unlikely to see such a development, as increased investments by Western countries would affect their residents' standard of living, and significant increases would be even more noticeable. For this reason, it currently appears that ending the war would require a significant change in the Russian leadership – in other words, the replacement of Putin's administration with more reasonable people.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the current Russian regime will fall only after its leader's health fails, or whether some kind of coalition will eventually emerge in Russia to remove this greatest obstacle to peace in Ukraine. And if this happens, whether the new administration will be any more reasonable remains to be seen.
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