Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia

The European Union has finally awakened to the fact that many Ukrainian men are using its refugee policy as a means of avoiding military service. For this reason, the Commission has proposed—according to the Finnish media—that Ukrainian men of military age should no longer be granted temporary protection in the EU.

One can only hope that the proposal will be processed by the EU's bureaucratic apparatus more quickly than, for example, the proposal to abolish changing the clocks. As a result, Ukraine's manpower shortage could be alleviated at a time when the military situation is otherwise turning so favorable for the Ukrainians that even Russian soldiers reportedly admit they are exhausted and wish to warn Putin of a possible "major catastrophe" ahead.

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The emergence of Russian soldiers speaking out, along with the reactions of Crimeans to Ukrainian successes, suggests that the Moscow government has kept its citizens in an information blackout regarding the problems facing the "special military operation." This brings to mind the year 1940, when Finnish censorship ensured that the public had an overly optimistic view of the situation in the Winter War, and as a result, people experienced the outcome of the war as even more unjust than it actually was.

The same problem now confronts Vladimir Putin and his administration. It is genuinely difficult for them to explain to their subjects why the Ukrainians are capable of destroying Russian infrastructure to such an extent that ordinary people no longer even have fuel for their cars.

If and when a rebellious spirit continues to spread among Russian soldiers, the government will face an acute crisis that will further undermine the operational capabilities of the country's military, and consequently weaken its military performance even beyond its current state.

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All of this could have a truly dramatic impact on the ability of Putin's administration to function. At the moment, it seems to be protected by little more than the absence of a credible opposition—a factor that also makes Russia's future difficult to predict.

Consequently, the final outcome of Putin's special military operation could be anything from a palace coup to complete anarchy and even the disintegration of the Russian state. Of course, the first of these scenarios is the most likely, but then again, hardly anyone at the beginning of 1917 predicted that the Bolsheviks would overthrow and murder the Russian Tsar and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Who Is Interested in the Rights of Nigerien Homosexuals?

According to a recent news report, Niger, located in West Africa, has criminalized same-sex relationships. As a result, people who engage in homosexual activity can be sentenced to up to ten years in prison and fined.

In addition, the law states that attempting to engage in "LGBTQ acts" may be punished in the same way. And that is not all: participating in the activities of organizations representing sexual and gender minorities can also result in an equally severe punishment.

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The reason given for the new law is that same-sex relationships are not in line with the country's social and cultural values. It remains to be seen, therefore, how various European organizations and civil society activists will react to Niger's values and culture.

Will we see rainbow activists demonstrating in the streets of Helsinki, Stockholm, Berlin, or Paris in support of homosexual people in Niger? Will European politicians condemn the actions of Niger's government? Or will Nigeriens themselves rise up against the country's military regime as a result of the decision?

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Personally, I believe that the plight of homosexual people in Niger is of little real interest to Europeans. Neither politicians nor rainbow activists are likely to be motivated to protest over the issue.

For my part, I maintain that a person's sexuality is a private matter and should concern no one other than the individuals involved, provided that it does not involve violence, coercion, or exploitation. This principle applies equally in the European Union and in Niger, and for that reason I wish to express my disapproval of the actions of the country's military government.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Free Speech Is Prosecuted: Päivi Räsänen’s Case Explained for Americans
Gender identity and the future of Finnishness
Library Scrubs Queer Creator’s Character from Moomin Exhibit

A Brave New World Will Be Born from Today’s Fertility

A recent article discussed changes in the world’s demographic structure. According to it, global population growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. For example, the fertility rates in the already highly populous countries of Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are 3.50, 4.30, and 3.81 respectively.

Even more striking figures can be found in Chad, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In those countries, women give birth to an average of 5.94, 5.91, and 5.90 children respectively. At the opposite extreme are Macao, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with fertility rates of 0.69, 0.74, and 0.75.

In Finland, the fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman in 2025. Across the entire European Union, the average was 1.34 in 2024, and in North America last year it was 1.59.

In practice, this means that in the world of the future, people will predominantly have genetic and cultural roots in developing countries — above all African ones, but also Asian peoples belonging to the Islamic cultural sphere, as illustrated by the Wikipedia map below.

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The future scenario I have outlined above actually came to mind while I was reading a column by a journalist from Finland’s largest newspaper about the civil war in Sudan. In it, Europeans were criticized for not caring about the Sudanese civil war and its victims.

According to Mykkänen, the Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Rania Dagash-Kamara, had spoken at an event held in the Finnish Parliament’s “Little Parliament” building about rapes committed against civilians in Sudan. These acts are carried out by armed men from the various sides in the conflict, and no one seems interested in protecting the victims from sexual violence.

After the event, Member of Parliament Eva Biaudet (Swedish People’s Party) reportedly showed a UNICEF report according to which rape has become a systematically used weapon of war. And it does not affect only women — one third of the victims are boys.

In addition, sixteen of the raped children were under the age of five. Four of them were only one year old.

I repeat: only one year old. In practice, babies! What kind of person rapes babies?

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Based on all this, I was left wondering what kind of world we may have in one or two hundred years’ time — taking into account what I said at the beginning of this text about the genetic and cultural roots of future humanity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Deep Roots of Violence and Disregard for Human Dignity in History
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
How to Increase Fertility Rates: A Finnish Solution

From Burden to Benefit: Reforming Immigration in Finland

The Finnish government led by Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party) submitted no fewer than three legislative proposals to Parliament for approval on Thursday. For this reason, Interior Minister Mari Rantanen (Finns Party), who led their preparation and presented the matter in Parliament, remarked that “we are having a kind of immigration super Thursday.”

The purpose of the legislative proposals is to streamline Finland’s immigration policy by introducing a citizenship test, intensifying the deportation and entry bans of those residing in the country illegally, and making use of the opportunities provided by the EU’s migration and asylum pact.

The aim of the citizenship test is to ensure that Finnish citizenship is not granted without the applicant having familiarity with Finnish society. However, the level of knowledge required to pass the test is not particularly demanding, as passing the multiple-choice exam only requires correctly answering seven out of ten questions.

According to the Interior Minister, the government “expects individuals seeking Finnish citizenship to be proactive in acting in the manner required by law.” For this reason, integration funding will in the future be more precisely directed toward teaching Finland’s national languages—which can only be welcomed.

Regarding deportations, the government aims to ensure that deportation decisions can be carried out more efficiently and quickly than at present. In addition, endangering national security will be added as grounds for an entry ban—this will also apply to individuals seeking to enter Finland from within the EU.

The third change is mainly technical. It implements the EU’s migration and asylum pact, which will in the future make it possible to transfer the asylum process to a country outside the Union. This too is an excellent development—provided the future arrives before it is too late.

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In my view, all of the government’s proposals yesterday are good and necessary—if not outright essential—conditions for transforming immigration from its current burden into something beneficial for Finland. Therefore, it is worth observing how Parliament responds to them.

It is, of course, to be expected that members of Parliament from the far left will react negatively to at least some of the proposals. If and when this happens, it will not change the image already formed of the Left Alliance and the Greens as a “fifth column” marching within our country.

More interesting, however, is to see what happens within the government itself—especially within the parliamentary groups of the Swedish People’s Party (RKP) and the National Coalition Party—as well as within the main opposition parties, the Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party. Will there also be, and if so how many, individuals willing to participate in the activities of a “fifth column”?

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As an aside, and loosely related to the topic: Member of Parliament Joakim Vigelius (Finns Party) made a rather apt remark on social media. He stated that “it is quite a paradox that first low-income people are attracted from around the world to Finland to be low-income, and then people wonder how much low-income status has increased.”

This observation also appears to be shared by Professor Heikki Hiilamo, who stated that immigration is “a significant factor” in the increase in poverty. “There has been a change in the labor market, with more and more immigrants working in low-wage occupations.”

In addition, the professor noted that the situation is also affected by the fact that immigrants largely live in big cities, such as Helsinki, where housing costs are relatively high. What more is there to add, except that public authorities in Finland actively encourage this by offering various non-reciprocal benefits to citizens of other countries as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Perspectives on Immigration Restrictions in Finland and the U.S.
Finland to Cut Off Taxpayer Money for Immigration
Can Europe Learn from Finland´s and Spain’s Contrasting Immigration Policies?