The fundamentals of conservation biology wavered

The late Finnish Professor Ilkka Hanski and his team were at the absolute forefront of metapopulation research, as evidenced by the $500,000 Crafoord Prize awarded to him. The theory, which was Hanski's area of interest, also serves as a central framework for conservation.

According to Wikipedia, "in classical metapopulation theory, each population cycles in relative independence of the other populations and eventually goes extinct as a consequence of demographic stochasticity (fluctuations in population size due to random demographic events); the smaller the population, the more chances of inbreeding depression and prone to extinction."

As conservation has also become an increasingly important sector in political decision-making, as shown by Finland's rejection of the EU Commission's proposed restoration regulation, it was interesting to note a research report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.

The report modeled the maintenance of the viability of metapopulations in fragmented landscapes by creating more complex, i.e., realistic, as well as simpler landscape structures. The former reflect fragmentation more realistically. The results showed that the findings from simpler models are not necessarily generalizable.

This is because dynamic phenomena that arise in more realistically fragmented landscapes often contradict the conclusions produced by simpler models. Thus, the new research undermines traditional metapopulation theory thinking - and at the same time its practical application in conservation thinking.

It remains to be seen how the research I have presented here will be covered by the European mainstream media. Or how it will affect, for example, the further development of the EU's restoration regulation. Or will it remain below the publication threshold of the media and thus not influence European conservation discussions in any way?

Since I strongly suspect that the research discussed here will remain unnoticed by the public, I decided to highlight the issue in this writing - in English and also Finnish - so that any journalist, politician, or other influencer interested in the matter - who reads this blog - could become aware of it. And could, if desired, read it themselves (the publication is open for reading) and utilize its results in their own activities.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Preventing future fires in Hawaii is possible, but the question remains: Are animal activists and politicians prepared for the necessary measures? Traditional beliefs turned out to be wisdom Wolfs affect nature conservation

Preventing future fires in Hawaii is possible, but the question remains: Are animal activists and politicians prepared for the necessary measures?

Hawaiian researchers Daniel Rubinoff and Samuel M. ‘Ohukani‘ōhi‘a Gon III reported in the journal Science that the fire that devastated the city of Lahaina, Hawaii, has killed more people than any other U.S. wildfire in the past 100 years. According to them, the underlying causes of the wildfire were land-use mistakes that led to the proliferation of easily ignitable invasive species and a lack of control over feral goat grazing.

Therefore, the removal of invasive species, the restoration of native plants, and better management of feral goat populations are essential measures to prevent similar wildfires in the future. The latter is crucial because feral goats have played a significant role in the disappearance of Hawaii's native dry forest ecosystem.

Goats were originally introduced to Maui as a gift to King Kamehameha I in 1789. However, the problem arose when these goats escaped into the wild and became feral. As a result, they have consumed native plants and stripped the bark from native trees. This, coupled with previous fires and the decline of Maui's plantation industry, has created a cycle in which wildfires continue to increase, allowing invasive species to spread.

One potential solution to prevent wildfires, according to researchers, could be the intensive grazing of cattle, which would reduce the quantity of invasive species that serve as fuel. However, this solution would negatively impact reforestation efforts, carbon sequestration, and lead to erosion and increased flood risks during winter rains. It would also result in barren landscapes and fail to support Hawaii's native biota, which is a critical Hawaiian biocultural resource.

Instead, it would be better to restore native Hawaiian dry forests, which burn more slowly than invasive shrubby grasslands. This, in turn, would require the widespread eradication of goats.

It remains uncertain whether the wildfires witnessed this year will indeed prompt the envisioned changes in Hawaiian conservation practices. There could be resistance from animal rights activists opposing large-scale goat eradication operations, and politicians might be reluctant to allocate funding for these essential changes, considering the economic sacrifices involved.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why are boreal forest fires on the rise everywhere but in Finland?
A new justification is needed for environmental activists
A popular hobby risks ecological balance, private property and human health in Finland

Traditional beliefs turned out to be wisdom

In the Western world, traditional beliefs and fairy tales are often disregarded, and understandably so, given the many benefits that modern science and knowledge-based technology have provided us. Nonetheless, on occasion, ancient traditions contain a kind of wisdom that exceeds scientific knowledge.

An example was published in a new research article, where scientists described how they gained insights into the mysterious small patches of barren earth called "fairy circles" found in arid grasslands in Australia and Namibia. Ecologists have debated whether the circles are the result of plants competing for water and nutrients or an alternative explanation backed by thousands of years of Aboriginal knowledge.

The study, argues that the circles are in part caused by underground nests of termites, as depicted in Aboriginal paintings and stories. The traditional knowledge of Aboriginal people was confirmed by scientists who dug trenches in the patches and discovered extensive termite tunnels.

The co-authors of the study include dozens of Aboriginal elders and experts who shared their knowledge with researchers at Australian institutions. The authors argue that the results demonstrate the importance of incorporating traditional knowledge of Indigenous people into scientific research.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Human curiosity altered an orbit of an asteroid
Should forbidden questions be answered or not?
World Resources Institute had an arrogant demand

Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining

In a recent scientific publication it was noticed that in most of the coastal cities around the world part of the land is subsiding even more quickly than a sea level is rising. Therefore it can be expected that these cities will be challenged by flooding much sooner than the current sea level rise models predict. 

The problem is most serious in South, Southeast, and East Asia, but the phenomenon is also observed in North America, Europe, Africa, and Australia. The main driving force for this subsidence is groundwater extraction.

I live in Finland, and here the soil - including that under the coastal towns - is rising due to a return from a subsidence that occurred during the last ice age. The problem, however, will also affect our life, as the Baltic sea is connected to other seas via Danish straits, and the land there is subsidizing even without human contribution. 

The outcome of this development will be higher rate of water change between the Baltic sea and Oceans. It will have the following two consequences. 

First. The sea water will become more salty than today, which probably affects also the fauna and flora of the unique brackish water ecosystem along our coasts. And as the level of the Baltic sea uniqueness - i.e. exceptional salinity - will be reduced, it will become even more receiving for all kinds of alien species dispersed by human actions, especially via ballast waters from ships sailing between different geographical areas.

This will worsen the biodiversity problem, which already now is considerable. According to this report, around 140 non-indigenous species or new species with unknown origin have been recorded in the Baltic Sea. And as easily understood, the situation cannot be fixed as eradication of non-indigenous species is not a viable management option for a whole sea.  

Second. The deep waters of Baltic sea are largely suffering of hypoxia, i.e. lack of oxygen. Its ultimate cause is an excess nutrient loading from human activities and in summertime its effects are visible as algal blooms. These blooms sink to the bottom and overuse the available oxygen, which leads to mortality of bottom-living organisms, and ultimately creates dead zones.

The situation is partially regenerative, as in some years more salty water from Oceans enter to the Baltic sea, and due to its heaviness compared to the brackish water, sink down to the bottoms. There it pushes the oxygen-free bottom water upwards and reoxidizes the deep sea basins. 

Now, if water change via the Danish straits increases due to the climatic change and land subsidence, also the area of deep basins suffering from hypoxia will reduce. That will ultimately lead to decrease in algal blooms, which currently considerably reduce the recreational value of the marine nature along the coasts of Finland and other Baltic sea countries. 

Taken together, the sea level rise expected due to the predicted climate change and land subsidence, as well as other human actions, can be expected to have negative effects to the nature of the Baltic sea, but  probably increase the recreational value of the sea to humans. 

For such a situation, we have a proverb in Finnish: "ei niin pahaa, ettei jotain hyvääkin". That means "not so bad, that there would not be something good", or to express that with an English proverb: "every cloud has a silver lining".

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Measurements of arctic temperatures and sea ice area agree with each other
World Resources Institute had an arrogant demand