Questionable Achievements of Donald Trump's Foreign Policy

Donald Trump's foreign policy has led to questionable achievements. One of them relates to Finland: according to a survey conducted by the country's largest newspaper, nearly half of Finns do not believe that the U.S. would defend Finland in the event of a Russian attack.

This is despite the fact that Finland is a member of NATO and has a bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement with the U.S., both of which obligate Trump to act in a real-life situation. Additionally, Finland has met NATO's requirement of allocating more than two percent of its GDP to defense spending.

Moreover, American troops have actively trained in winter warfare in Finland. For instance, during the recently concluded Arctic Forge exercise, Lieutenant Colonel Dan Ludwig, who led the American soldiers, stated that the exercise had improved his troops' Arctic combat readiness to such an extent that it would be great to continue training in Finnish Lapland in the future.

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Given that NATO allies' faith in the U.S.'s adherence to agreements in a crisis situation has weakened in this manner, one can only hope that Trump's foreign policy regarding Ukraine proves effective. In other words, that the war would end with a peace that Ukrainians can genuinely accept, and that the Russians would not be left with the impression that they could gain any advantages through aggression against neighboring countries.

At this very moment, it is clear that Putin is not yielding to Trump's will. Therefore, the U.S. president should make the Russian counterpart an offer he cannot refuse.

After all, he previously made such an offer to Ukraine, which understood the situation and complied with Trump's conditions. It would be truly strange if the U.S. demanded greater submission from a friendly nation like Ukraine than from an openly hostile and imperialistic Russia.

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Just a while ago, President Trump wrote on social media: "We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end — BUT, AT THIS VERY MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION. I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II. God bless them all!!!"

This does not sound very promising to me. Therefore, I regret to point out that failure in dealing with Russia would fuel suspicions that President Putin somehow possesses the means to force his American counterpart to prioritize Russia's interests in all actions. This is a message no one would want to hear — at least not outside Russia and its satellite states.

Postscript: "The White House has just announced that Trump did not speak with Putin yesterday."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland's Stance on NATO Defense Spending Is Linked to the Geopolitical Threat from Russia
Now It's Putin's Turn to Show His Hand
Trump's Indecision Benefits Putin – Deadly Consequences for Ukraine

Finland's Stance on NATO Defense Spending Is Linked to the Geopolitical Threat from Russia

Finnish Minister of Finance Riikka Purra (Finns Party) suggested today that the defense spending target for the military alliance NATO will be raised to three or even 3.5 percent of the member countries' gross domestic product. Such an increase would be quite high, as many European NATO countries have not previously reached the current two percent target.

However, Finland appears to be ready for such an increase, provided that the decisions are made in a way that the allocated funds are specifically directed towards enhancing the country’s military capability and addressing threats against Finland, as well as fulfilling identified defensive needs.

In practice, the Finnish military currently has the greatest needs in the development of ground forces, so investments will initially focus on that area. This is because Finland has recently or is currently investing heavily in both naval and air forces.

However, the extent of the military threat against Finland remains unknown, as it depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If the outcome is such that Russia can interpret its aggression as having achieved any form of victory, the risk to Finland increases in proportion to the certainty of Russian military achievements.

For this reason, it is not in Finland's interest to support a resolution that would, for example, limit Ukraine's sovereignty, involve territorial concessions, or restrict its military capabilities. Unfortunately, it seems that such elements are included in President Donald Trump's plan for a ceasefire and permanent peace. Even more clearly, these elements are present in the demands that Vladimir Putin has set as conditions for his involvement.

Unfortunately, at the moment, it seems that Trump does not understand — or care — about the consequences of such peace for Russia’s neighboring states. Nor do European countries, due to their previous neglect of defense, possess the military strength to offer Ukraine an alternative or to pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

Therefore, the current phase of the peace process in Ukraine appears outright threatening to both Finland and other neighboring states of Russia. On the other hand, it ensures that the citizens of these countries have a strong will to enhance and strengthen their military defense capability.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Now It's Putin's Turn to Show His Hand
Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia
Trump's Indecision Benefits Putin – Deadly Consequences for Ukraine

Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams

The Russians have recently received multiple pieces of bad news. The latest, which surfaced through social media, reports that in September, Russia experienced the highest average wartime losses: 1,271 soldiers killed or wounded daily.

Additionally, also according to information from social media, the Russian army has lost the equivalent of five divisions' worth of armored equipment in the Pokrovsk area of Eastern Ukraine over the past year. This information was gathered by compiling all recorded instances of Russian equipment destruction for which there is video evidence: a total of 539 tanks and around 1,020 armored vehicles.

If losses continue at this pace, it is possible that the Russians will eventually have to abandon their gradually successful offensives in the Pokrovsk area and retreat to defensive positions.

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Another drawback for Putin comes from the Russian economy. Namely, Russia's state budget for next year includes a 12% increase, mainly due to a quarter rise in military spending from this year.

Military expenditures will amount to 6.3% of the country’s GDP. Additionally, it is likely that more military expenses have been concealed, related to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

However, Russia’s economy has not developed, as the government has simply shifted more costs onto citizens and businesses. For example, the corporate tax rate is rising from 20% to 25%, and personal taxes will become progressive. In addition, the costs of housing, services, and public transport will also be increased.

As a result, inflation is expected to accelerate to at least 5.5%. Therefore, Russia’s central bank was shocked by the budget and plans to raise the key interest rate from the current 18% to 20%, but even this is considered insufficient to keep inflation in check.

Thus, next year’s Russian budget brings three pieces of bad news: the budget growth comes solely from businesses and citizens’ pockets, despite structural balance, the budget will increase inflation, and there is no end in sight to the negative trends as the invasion continues.

However, it remains to be seen how all of this will ultimately affect Putin's army's ability to wage war in Ukraine. The possible loss of its fighting ability would be really bad news for Vladimir Putin and his imperialistic dreams.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility