Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

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However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

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This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

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It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

All Russians Should Be Informed of the Staggering Losses of Putin’s Army in Ukraine

Based on open data, the BBC, together with the publication Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has identified the names of 78,329 Russian soldiers who have died in Ukraine over the past two years. The growth rate of confirmed deaths is currently at its highest since the beginning of the war. The figures for September, October, and November exceed those of last year by one and a half times, and the 2022 figures by more than double.

The increase in losses may result from offensive operations by Russian forces in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, such as the assault on Vuhledar, which was captured by early October, and the assault on Pokrovsk, where fighting on the outskirts continues.

Other possible reasons include the gradual confirmation of Russian losses in Russia’s Kursk region or the aftermath of the summer offensive campaign. The rise in reports of fatalities could also be due to a combination of these factors.

The highest number of losses is among volunteers—those who signed contracts after the full-scale invasion began. Their share of total confirmed losses continues to grow, with confirmed deaths of 16,551 volunteers, accounting for 23% of the total confirmed Russian losses.

In addition to fatalities, many Russians have also been injured. Including these, the total losses for the aggressor rise to approximately 720,000 soldiers.

These figures can be compared to Soviet troop losses in Finland’s Winter War (November 30, 1939 – March 13, 1940), often likened to the war in Ukraine. In that conflict, as many as 126,875 Soviet soldiers were killed, with total losses—including the wounded—reaching around 350,000 soldiers in just 4.5 months. This means that current Russian losses have surpassed the staggering toll seen at that time. 

It would be valuable for all Russians to receive and understand this message, as it might reduce the appeal of the large rewards promised by Putin's administration to people living in Russia. This could weaken the country’s military capability in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Women full of testosterone

Sometimes it feels like the world has gone crazy. This morning, I felt that way when I noticed a headline in a Finnish afternoon newspaper stating that transgender women were dominating a volleyball game in Canada.

According to the article, there were five transgender women playing in the women's game, all of whom "are said to be playing in the women's league without having undergone any hormone treatment or gender reassignment surgery." In other words, in Canadian women's volleyball, there are men with testosterone playing with all their male anatomy.

These men also have strength. So much so that their spikes cause concussions and other health damages when they hit the heads of the opposing women.

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I have nothing against people's diversity. Everyone can be in a free country - such as Canada or Finland - exactly as they wish. Even if that means a man dressed as a woman or a transgender woman who has undergone hormone therapy and gender reassignment surgery.

This freedom extends exactly so far as not to cause undue harm to others. In women's sports, this means that men dressed as women or even trans women who have undergone testosterone-boosting treatments during adolescence should not be allowed to compete.

World sports leaders should take this matter seriously. If not for the sake of women's equality - which is violated by individuals who compete against them with the strength of male muscles - then at least for the sake of the interest in their sports, and thus their viability.

It's clear that volleyball players like those I described in the beginning wouldn't inspire girls to take up the sport, nor would they inspire spectators to watch. And I doubt that such competitions, at least in the case of women's sports, would even draw an audience.

But of course, national and international sports organizations make their own decisions. Both in Finland and Canada. And also at the international level.

The original though in Finnish:
Testosteronia pullistelevat naiset

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
"Woke" pushes American science academies to favor women in their membership selections
Discrimination against women?
The activists sought excitement and a boost to their self-esteem in the Stockholm Diamond League