New Framework for Post-Hamas Gaza

Israel’s Security Cabinet has announced that it will take control of Gaza and destroy the terrorist organization Hamas, which previously ruled the area. Additionally, it has outlined five principles to be applied in the region.

These principles include the disarmament of Hamas, the release of hostages, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, Israeli security oversight in Gaza, and the establishment of an entirely new Arab civil administration. The final decision on implementing these principles will be made by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s full cabinet, which is set to convene no earlier than Sunday.

To carry out this plan, Israel has repositioned its troops near the Gaza border in formations suggesting the beginning of a new large-scale ground offensive. It remains to be seen whether the war, sparked by Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, is now moving into a phase that could lead to a peaceful resolution.

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At first glance, the plan raises many questions. It is certain that Hamas fighters will do everything they can to avoid capture—potentially even by using human shields. At the same time, they will undoubtedly seek to prevent the release of hostages.

I also approach with great skepticism the idea that an entirely new Arab administration could be established in Gaza without any involvement from previous powerholders. And even if such an administration were created, could it build enough military strength to prevent Hamas from resurging? One problem could be that such a government would likely be seen as an Israeli puppet regime, making it difficult to gain the trust of the local population—many of whom have traditionally supported Hamas.

On the other hand, any attempt to end the war in Gaza—and to achieve long-term, sustainable peace—is undoubtedly welcome from both the Palestinian Arab and Jewish perspectives. That is why I hope the proposed plan can materialize into an authority that wields real power in the region and succeeds in suppressing the terrorism that has taken root there for decades.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Hamas Continues the Suffering of Gaza's Civilians
A Night at the Opera
When Demands Become Damage

What Would It Take to Make Peace in the Holy Land?

The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, wrote the following on social media regarding the situation in Gaza:

"The suffering of civilians in Gaza must end.

Finland calls on Israel to assume its responsibilities under international law and to ensure access for humanitarian aid. The UN and humanitarian aid organizations must be allowed to operate fully and impartially. Humanitarian aid must not be politicised. Forced displacement of populations is a war crime and cannot form part of any solution.

We call on Hamas to release hostages and encourage the parties to return to the ceasefire.

Israel's security must be guaranteed in accordance with international law. Peace negotiations must be started immediately on the basis of a two-state solution."

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I am pleased with the President’s statement because he addressed both sides of the issue. And sadly, this stands in contrast to the remarks of nearly all other politicians who have taken a stance on the matter—especially those directly involved.

If the leaders and influential voices - as well as all ordinary people - within both Jewish and Palestinian communities of the Holy Land were to read Stubb’s comment and abide by it, the problem would be resolved. Unfortunately, I find it hard to believe that this will happen. For the Palestinians, it would mean accepting Israel’s right to its current borders and ensuring that no more rockets are fired from Palestinian territories into Israel, nor any other terrorist acts committed.

For the Jews in the region, it would mean treating Palestinians—whether independent or part of Israel—as equal neighbors, with whom trade and interaction would be conducted as with any other people. Furthermore, it would require ensuring that no one—such as Jewish settlers in the West Bank—is granted any rights to touch Palestinian property, except through fair, voluntary transactions based on mutual agreement.

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Regrettably, I doubt this will come to pass after nearly 80 years - with roots going even much further in history - of hostility. There always seems to be a small group of people who refuse to accept the status quo and take justice into their own hands, especially when they feel they have been wronged.

Of course, the problem described above would be “resolved” if Israel were to carry through with the idea of forcibly displacing the population of Gaza to completion. Or if the Palestinians, by some miracle, succeeded in destroying the Jewish state.

But the reality is that neither of these outcomes would be in accordance with international law, nor would they respect human rights, and therefore they are not justifiable in any way. And that’s why I fear that, despite Stubb’s principle—which, tragically, is disarmingly simple in theory—we are likely to witness another 80 years of hostility in the Holy Land. And the overwhelming majority of both Jews and Palestinians will continue to suffer because of it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Could Mohammed Sinwar’s Death Mark a Turning Point Toward Peace
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons
Understanding of Facts is Increasing in the Middle East

Rising Trade Tensions Between the EU and China

It is well known that China has in recent years conquered global markets by generously supporting its own industry. As a result, it has brought, for example, the European automotive industry almost to its knees, and some of it has already been relocated to China.

However, now the European Union member states are planning to impose permanent tariffs on electric cars manufactured in China. This would increase the cost of importing cars from China to Europe by five to ten thousand euros at current prices, depending on the manufacturer, assuming the tariffs are passed directly onto the prices.

It remains to be seen what will happen if the decision is implemented. It is likely that at least some sort of trade war will break out, unless a miracle happens and a fair agreement is reached on the level of state subsidies.

This would, of course, require that China understands the reason why the EU is imposing tariffs and accepts the principle of fairness, which would include mutual respect. However, this is probably too much to expect, at least until enough damage has been done to both parties' economies through mutual squabbling.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
China uses Western universities to educate its youth
China is betting on scientific excellence
Does China prove the superiority of market economy?